Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 27 16:31:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 27 16:31:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through tonight. ...Mid Atlantic and southern New England... A summertime convective pattern is present across the CONUS today, with scattered thunderstorms in several areas but very limited severe potential. One area of some concern is along a weak cold front extending from southern New England into central VA. Thunderstorms are expected to form along this boundary, but considerable cloud cover will limit CAPE values in a weakly sheared environment. A localized storm producing gusty/damaging winds is possible, but the overall threat of severe appears low. Other thunderstorms with minor severe weather concerns will occur this afternoon and evening over parts of MN and south TX. In both areas, a storm or two may briefly produce a damaging wind gust. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0724 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain quite low through tonight. ...New England to the Carolinas today... A midlevel shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will move eastward over New England through tonight, along with an associated surface cold front. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s across New England and low 70s across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic will precede the cold front today, but clouds will slow surface heating and midlevel lapse rates will be poor, which will limit buoyancy and downdraft potential. Vertical shear will also remain rather modest in the warm sector across New England and will be very weak farther south toward the Carolinas, which suggests that the threat for severe storms appears too low for any outlook areas. ...South TX this afternoon... The trailing cold front will continue to sag southward to near the Gulf Coast, aided on the mesoscale by outflow with convection. Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the middle TX coastal plain into south central TX with storms along the front this afternoon, in conjunction with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. However, storms will tend to remain pulse-like in nature and the threat for severe/damaging outflow winds appears too low to add 5% wind probabilities. ...Eastern SD into MN through tonight... Low-level moisture is limited in the wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough and associated cold frontal passage. An upstream shortwave trough over SK/MB will progress southeastward toward northeast ND/northern MN overnight, and will be accompanied by a reinforcing cold front. Prior to the next frontal passage, some local moistening will occur through evapotranspiration, but this moisture will tend to get redistributed upward through mixing this afternoon. This will leave rather modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg), driven mainly by surface heating and cool midlevel temperatures (near -17 C at 500 mb). The threat for thunderstorm development during the day will be limited by the poor moisture and (at best) weak forcing for ascent. Ascent will increase some early tonight with the approach of the SK/MB shortwave trough/cold front, and with warm advection on the nose of a weak low-level jet from eastern SD into southwestern MN. With the majority of the convection likely to be elevated tonight in a weakly buoyant regime, the threat for severe storms appears too low for any wind/hail probability areas. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/27/2022 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A risk for organized severe thunderstorms is not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will be maintained over much of the western U.S. on Monday, except across the Pacific Northwest, where an upper low is forecast to approach the coast by the end of the period. Meanwhile, an upper trough will be maintained over the eastern U.S. as a series of shortwave troughs embedded in larger-scale flow migrate across the Great Lakes, and into western Ontario. Stronger mid/upper level flow will remain confined to the U.S./Canadian border vicinity near the northwestern upper low and the Great Lakes trough. At the surface, high pressure initially centered over the central/southern Plains will develop eastward into the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will stretch from central PA/NY into the VA/Carolinas Piedmont vicinity then into the lower MS valley and central TX. The front will slowly progress eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast, while mostly stalling across the Southeast and TX. A seasonally moist airmass will reside ahead of the front from TX into the Mid-Atlantic. Midlevel lapse rates will generally remain modest, but areas of strong heating will allow pockets of moderate destabilization to develop from central TX into MS/AL, as well as along portions of the VA/NC/SC Piedmont. Weak deep-layer flow/vertical shear will preclude longevity/organization of any stronger updrafts. However, PW values near or above the 90th percentile and steep low-level lapse rates could support sporadic wet microbursts with locally gusty winds ahead of the front across a large area from central TX into MS/AL and the NC/VA Piedmont. ..Leitman.. 06/26/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 26 17:02:02 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook for the latest hi-res guidance/morning observations. Isolated and mostly dry thunderstorms will support lightning within areas of dry fuels across the Great Basin and northern parts of the Western Slope. To the south and east, scattered to widespread wetting storms are possible, limiting the dry thunder risk. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across portions of southern Oregon, though confidence in storm coverage is low. See the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 06/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. today, resulting in relatively weak surface wind field (and associated fire weather conditions) across much of the CONUS. However, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of the Interior West, fueling isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. While the storms will be slow moving/occasionally wet, some of the storms may produce lightning over patchy but critically dry fuel beds, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z Minimal changes have been made to the current outlook for the latest hi-res guidance/morning observations. Isolated and mostly dry thunderstorms will support lightning within areas of dry fuels across the Great Basin and northern parts of the Western Slope. To the south and east, scattered to widespread wetting storms are possible, limiting the dry thunder risk. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across portions of southern Oregon, though confidence in storm coverage is low. See the prior discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 06/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. today, resulting in relatively weak surface wind field (and associated fire weather conditions) across much of the CONUS. However, mid-level moisture will continue to linger across much of the Interior West, fueling isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating. While the storms will be slow moving/occasionally wet, some of the storms may produce lightning over patchy but critically dry fuel beds, warranting the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE UPPER OHIO TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley, and over southwest Arizona. ...ArkLaMiss to upper OH Valley... Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from eastern OH into parts of KY/TN and MS/LA. A corridor of rich low-level moisture and strong CAPE lies along the front, where isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms are forecast. Winds aloft along this entire zone are relatively weak. This, combined with poor mid-level lapse rates and weak forcing should keep the overall severe threat quite limited. However, the potential exists for pulse and disorganized multicell storms to produce locally damaging wind gusts today across the MRGL risk area. This threat should diminish quickly after sunset. Refer to MCD #1296 for short-term details on parts of the area. ...AZ... Mostly clear skies and dewpoints in the 50s will yield moderately unstable air mass over much of central and western AZ today. Sufficient mid-level moisture is expected to produce scattered high-based thunderstorms capable of localized gusty/damaging wind gusts. Weak winds aloft should limit convective organization. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/26/2022 Read more

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...WEST KENTUCKY...AND FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Areas affected...southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas...northwest Tennessee...west Kentucky...and far southern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261508Z - 261715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will persist this morning. Marginally severe hail and wind will be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster continues to move east-southeast this morning across portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley. Additional thunderstorms are developing ahead of this approaching thunderstorm cluster. As these thunderstorms move into or develop within an axis of greater instability stretching from central Arkansas northeast into southeast Missouri, episodic upticks in updraft intensity may occur. As such, thunderstorms may briefly be capable of marginally severe hail and wind, and recent MRMS trends suggest a thunderstorm across Wayne County, Missouri may be capable of hail around 1 inch. Weak deep-layer and effective-layer shear -- as indicated by the circular nature the developing anvils -- should limit the the severe potential to short temporal and small spatial scales, driven primarily by storm-scale processes. A watch is currently not anticipated. ..Marsh/Hart.. 06/26/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36909127 37829024 38348909 37828778 37008687 35478685 34528790 34328918 34639073 35299134 36909127 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to the upper Ohio Valley. ...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon... A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward into the southern Plains. Convection has been ongoing overnight to the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just ahead of the front across southern IL. Outflow with the ongoing MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm development. Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning clouds/convection diminish. Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward the Mid South. Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be focused from mid-late afternoon. ...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening... Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX. Gusty outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds appears too low to warrant an outlook area. Otherwise, the monsoon will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM. On the western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ northwestward along the Mogollon Rim. Steering flow off the high terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from outflow collisions. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z The previous forecast remains valid with minor adjustments. The IsoDryT area was shifted northwest toward the periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume evident on morning WV imagery. More isolated and higher-based storms should provide better potential for isolated dry strikes within receptive fuels. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more details. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern U.S. as a cold front sweeps southward, reinforced by surface high pressure. Overall quiescent surface fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., which should limit widespread significant wildfire growth. Some Elevated dry/breezy conditions may occur across portions of southwest Texas, as well as along the lee of the Diablo Range in central/southern California. However, the surface fire weather conditions are expected to either be too localized or occur over poorly receptive fuels, precluding Elevated highlights this outlook. Mid-level monsoonal moisture will continue to gradually overspread the Great Basin during this afternoon. By afternoon peak heating, at least isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop. Though storms should be slow moving, they are expected to traverse fuel beds that are critically dry on a spotty basis, necessitating isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 25 16:47:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 25 16:47:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and northeast Missouri. ...IA/IL/MO... A large upper ridge is centered over the lower MS Valley today, with the primary westerlies extending across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery and model guidance hint at a subtle shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over northern KS. This feature will track eastward into IA this afternoon, with weak large scale forcing overspreading the mid MS Valley. Parts of IA/MO/IL were affected by overnight and morning convection, but that activity is moving out of the area and will allow strong afternoon heating/destabilization to occur. This will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg over eastern IA/western IL and northeast MO. Thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon along a weak cold front over eastern IA/western IL and build westward into northeast MO. These storms will track southeastward along the instability gradient across parts of central IL and eastern MO during the evening before slowly weakening after dark. Wind fields are relatively weak, but strong buoyancy values and organization into a QLCS will result in a risk of strong/damaging wind gusts. ...KY/TN/AL/FL... Morning surface analysis shows an axis of low-mid 70s dewpoints from the FL Panhandle into much of AL, middle/east TN and eastern KY. Strong heating will aid in the development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low and mid level winds are relatively weak, but sufficient upper-level flow, strong CAPE, and favorable low-level lapse rates support a risk of pulse and multicell severe wind events. ..Hart/Jirak.. 06/25/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN IL AND ADJACENT AREAS OF IA/MO... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon/evening, focused in northern Illinois, southeast Iowa, and extreme northeast Missouri. ...Northern IL/southeast IA to KS/OK through late evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the Dakotas this morning will move generally eastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes, around the northern periphery of the midlevel high over the southern Plains. A surface cyclone will precede the midlevel trough across western ON to James Bay, and a trailing cold front will move southeastward across the upper MS Valley and the central Plains through tonight. An MCV may emerge from the ongoing warm advection storms across IA, and the MCV will move over southern WI/northern IL toward southwest Lower MI by late afternoon/evening. Clouds and rain-cooled air with the IA convection will tend to limit the northeast extent of substantial destabilization today to IL and southwestward along the front to KS/OK. On the southern fringe of the morning convection and the larger-scale trough approaching the upper MS Valley, strong buoyancy is expected from MO/southeast IA into parts of northern IL. Additional convection is expected late this afternoon ahead of the cold front and along any remaining outflow/differential heating boundaries from southeast IA into IL. This area will be near the southern fringe of the slightly stronger flow aloft, where there is a better chance for more organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging outflow gusts late this afternoon/evening. Farther southwest, hotter temperatures and deeper mixing will support high-based storms with some downburst potential along the front into southern KS/northern OK. The stronger storms near the front may also pose a marginal hail threat, and elevated convection may persist overnight to the north of the cold front. ...Southern AL/FL Panhandle this afternoon... Another afternoon of diurnal convection is expected along a weak surface boundary drifting westward into AL and the western FL Panhandle. Strong surface heating will occur (especially west of the boundary), and boundary-layer dewpoints along the boundary will contribute to strong buoyancy this afternoon. Vertical shear will be weak, but thermodynamic profiles will support some threat for isolated wind damage with downbursts, mainly this afternoon. ..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z Added an Isolated Dry Thunderstorm delineation across the south-central Sierra. Morning forecast soundings and CAM guidance support the threat for isolated thunderstorm development. No changes were made to the ongoing IsoDryT area in northwest Arizona and southern Utah. Numerous storms are expected across north-central Arizona where fuels are also dry, but PWAT will be slightly higher across this region. Therefore, no scattered DryT area is needed. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS as a weak mid-level trough traverses the interior West today. Some dry and breezy conditions may develop across the southern High Plains in association with surface lee troughing, but fuel receptiveness is expected to remain modest enough to temper more widespread wildfire growth. Monsoonal mid-level moisture will continue to meander across the Southwest into the Four Corners and foster isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While storm motion will be slow, forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles, where fuels are highly receptive to fire spread. Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were added where the greatest chance of drier thunderstorms will overlap the most receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 24 16:37:01 UTC 2022.