Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm wind gusts are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and New England this afternoon through early evening. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic States... The region will be influenced by a low-amplitude shortwave trough and speed max today, with moderately strong mid/high-level winds noted in regional 12z observed soundings as far south as roughly the Pennsylvania/Maryland border vicinity. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon along and ahead of a surface cold front including near a pre-frontal trough. Pre-frontal showers and residual cloud cover persist particularly from New Jersey/eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England, but gradual destabilization and an erosion of boundary layer inhibition is occurring especially across southern New England late this morning and midday. Even with lingering residual cloud cover, the corridor of strongest destabilization this afternoon should largely parallel the I-95 general vicinity from Virginia into southern New England, where MLCAPE may reach/exceed 2000-2500 J/kg. Effective shear magnitudes will generally range from a supercell-supportive 40-50 kt over New England to around 25-30 kt southwestward into Virginia/eastern West Virginia, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will nonetheless support pulse/multicell-related wind gust potential. Severe/locally damaging wind gusts will be the most common severe risk (almost exclusively) overall, but a tornado cannot be ruled particularly across southern New England where deep-layer shear and low-level shear/SRH will be stronger. ...Middle Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... A few strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur this afternoon within a moist/unstable environment near the front across southern Missouri, but will not adjust/reintroduce severe probabilities at this time given lingering forecast uncertainties and relatively low/isolated perceived severe potential overall. A somewhat higher probability/coverage of storms is expected tonight and farther north from northeast Kansas across northern Missouri into western/south-central Illinois. This will be as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies and warm advection/isentropic ascent increases coincident with the elevated frontal surface. A few organized and potentially severe storms may occur, particularly early in the convective cycle before a more front-parallel linear configuration evolves. That said, potential upscale growth into an MCS could eventually occur. ...Central/northern High Plains... A conditional and/or fairly localized severe potential (hail/wind) is evident in this region this afternoon into this evening, with a deeply mixed diurnal boundary layer, steep low/middle-level lapse rates, and pockets of favorable/residual moisture all expected to support a plume of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE from parts of western South Dakota into western Nebraska. Have introduced low severe probabilities for parts of this region where a few severe storms appear a bit more probable. Any convection that does develop will be in an environment of modest-magnitude but strongly veering low-level winds with height, leading to long hodographs and around 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/25/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 07/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will remain in place across the northern CONUS, while a compact shortwave trough crosses the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. As moderate midlevel flow accompanying the shortwave trough overspreads a diurnally deepening boundary layer over southern WY, a corridor of 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds will be possible amid 10-15 percent RH. However, recent light to moderate rainfall over the area and only marginally elevated conditions cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat -- precluding Elevated highlights at this time. Farther south over parts of the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds will develop in response to a weak surface low near the OK Panhandle. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH, could result in locally elevated conditions where fuels are receptive to wildfire spread. With that said, these conditions look too marginal/spotty for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 24 18:00:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday from portions of New England to the Mid-Atlantic region. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe storms will also be possible over portions of the northern and central High Plains vicinity. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail over the southern half of the U.S. Monday, while a belt of enhanced/cyclonic flow resides over the northern third of the country south of a pair of Canadian upper cyclones. At the surface, an arcing front will shift eastward across the Northeast, southward across the Ohio Valley and central U.S., and then nearly stationary/backed into the High Plains through the period. ...New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and westward into the Mid South... As a cold front advances eastward into/across New England and southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the day Monday, thunderstorms -- likely ongoing locally at the start of the period -- are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through late morning/early afternoon. The increase -- fueled by a moist/destabilizing pre-frontal environment -- will be aided by a belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading across the area in tandem with short-wave troughing sweeping across the St. Lawrence Valley through the day. With a somewhat-more-southerly component to the low-level flow, veering and increasing with height to southwesterly, shear will favor organized storms. While bands of convection should become the primary storm mode, updraft rotation in stronger cells may support risk for a tornado. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk, along with some hail potential. Storms will spread eastward with time in tandem with the cold-frontal advance, gradually moving offshore but lingering longest over southeastern New England and the mid-Atlantic region. Farther west along the front, into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee, severe risk should remain more limited, due to weaker flow aloft. Still, storms developing along the front will likely be accompanied by local risk for damaging wind gusts and/or hail. ...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle... A belt of cyclonic flow aloft will remain across the north-central U.S. Monday, on the southern fringe of a pair of central Canada lows. As weak disturbances move southeastward across the northern and central Plains vicinity, a frontal wave is forecast to be maintained over the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity, along front progged to remain draped from northwest to southeast from the northern High Plains. Diurnal heating/destabilization near and ahead of this front/low, along with focused ascent aided by the passage of the aforementioned disturbances aloft will likely prove sufficient for isolated afternoon storm development. With 25 to 35 kt west-northwesterly flow aloft atop low-level southeasterlies near and just east of the front, a few stronger storms may organize, and possibly grow upscale into a small cluster. Local risk for a couple of damaging wind gusts and/or hail warrants maintenance of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 07/24/2022 Read more

MD 1575 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OHIO TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1575 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Areas affected...Northeast Ohio to southwestern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 241710Z - 241915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop through the afternoon hours and will pose a threat for strong to severe winds. A watch is likely within the next hour. DISCUSSION...A field of growing cumulus is noted from northeast OH into northwest PA with a few deeper convective towers becoming evident, one of which has rapidly intensified within the past 20 minutes. In the absence of stronger surface/low-level forcing, this activity is likely being fostered by broad ascent ahead of a mid-level perturbation across the Great Lakes, aided by rapidly decreasing MLCIN as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80s (based on a modified 15 UTC BUF sounding). While thunderstorm coverage in the near-term is somewhat uncertain given the weak/broad forcing for ascent, continued destabilization through the day should support the maintenance of the deepening convection. Strong winds (upwards of 40-50 knots) are noted within the lowest 3 km of regional soundings and VWP observations, which suggests that any developing storm will pose a strong to severe wind risk. 0-6 km bulk shear values near 35-40 knots will support storm organization, including the potential for supercells capable of large hail. A watch will likely be needed within the hour to address this concern as addition thunderstorms mature through the early afternoon. ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/24/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41298220 41928080 42707883 42897742 42567674 41897643 41327665 40967736 40797928 40788068 40898179 41048215 41298220 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the lower Great Lakes vicinity into St. Lawrence Valley by late this afternoon, with a threat for damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes. ...Lower Great Lakes and vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front. This will be influenced by an eastward-ejecting shortwave trough over Michigan/Upper Great Lakes, with corresponding enhancements to forcing for ascent and an increase in deep-layer wind profiles. Modest low/middle-level lapse rates will offset favorable low-level moisture enough to keep MLCAPE maximized at 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow corridor east of the Lower Great Lakes, but with 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes and 150-300 m2/s2 effective SRH in support of mixed supercell/multicell modes and possible some bowing segments. Damaging winds will be the most common hazard, but some hail and/or a tornado risk may also exist as well. Farther southwest, stronger heating (especially outside of a residual cluster/cloud debris across northeast Illinois into northern Indiana) and higher moisture content will also support severe storms within a somewhat weaker deep-layer shear environment across Illinois/Indiana and vicinity. Multicell clusters should be the most prevalent severe mode with wind damage as the most common hazard. ...Central/northern Rockies and adjoining High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon, along a lengthy expanse of the interface between the eastern Rockies front and the High Plains. Activity should move roughly eastward onto the Plains, with more longevity/persistence likely in middle and southern segments of the outlook area with the main severe concern being isolated severe wind gusts. Diurnal heating will steepen lower/middle-tropospheric lapse rates in the presence of sufficient/residual low-level moisture advecting into the region in the post-frontal boundary layer. This should lead to a well-mixed low-level thermodynamic profile, beneath minimal MLCINH, with a plume of 500-1000 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE that generally narrows northward. Though low-level moisture and theta-e should be somewhat lower on the northwest end, large-scale ascent ahead of the northern Rockies perturbation should overlie surface heating to contribute to very steep low/middle-level lapse rates. Continued easterly flow component north of the front/low should contribute to both favorable storm-relative boundary-layer winds for activity moving off the higher terrain, and strong veering of flow with height. Several loosely organized bands or clusters of convection may aggregate cold pools for a few hours in support of gust potential. Depending on subsequent mesoscale trends and convective guidance, some subset of this area may gain enough spatial certainty to warrant greater probabilities. ...Arizona... A cluster of storms continues to generally dissipate and move westward across the southern Arizona desert this morning. A relatively moist air mass persists across southeast Arizona in its wake where post-MCS insolation will be strong. Widely scattered storms should redevelop later this afternoon with slow westward movement off the mountains/higher terrain. The hot/well-mixed boundary layer could support some strong/potentially severe-caliber wind gusts later this afternoon through early evening. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/24/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022/ ...Synopsis... A compact midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward from the Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, deep/enhanced westerly flow will overspread parts of southern ID into western WY -- where single-digit to lower teens RH will develop during the afternoon. The combination of 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels will result in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions this afternoon. In addition, increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will encourage widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms over eastern ID into western MT. As these storms overspread a hot/deeply-mixed boundary layer and receptive fuels, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible away from any precipitation cores. Farther south over the southern Plains, breezy southerly surface winds near 15 mph will develop in response to a weak surface low near northwest OK. The breezy surface winds, coupled with 20-25 percent minimum RH could lead to locally elevated conditions from the TX/OK Panhandles into western OK. However, these conditions appear too marginal/localized for Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ACROSS THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms will be possible Sunday from portions of New England west-southwestward across the Midwest/Ohio Valley. Damaging wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk. Locally damaging wind gusts will also be possible across portions of southern Montana and into the northern and central High Plains. ...New England west-southwestward across the Midwest... A cold front initially stretching from the upper Great Lakes to Kansas is forecast to move eastward across the Lower Lakes (eventually reaching the Northeast), and southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Midwest/central Plains through the period. This will occur as mid-level height falls gradually expand southward across the Great Lakes region south of a mid-level low/short-wave trough crossing southern Ontario and eventually moving into western Quebec. Ahead of the front, a moist boundary layer will undergo heating/destabilization through the day. Storms -- and possibly some lingering severe potential -- may be ongoing early along the front across the parts of the Midwest/upper Great Lakes, but bands of afternoon storms are forecast to initiate near and ahead of the front, from western New England west-southwestward to Illinois/Missouri. The strongest flow aloft is forecast from the Great Lakes to New England, which warrants an expansion of severe probabilities across portions of New England in this update. Locally damaging winds are expected as multiple clusters/convective bands evolve with time, across the entire slight risk area. In addition, a tornado or two will also be possible -- particularly across the Lower Great Lakes region and into western New England, where with isolated/rotating storms will be possible, given veering low-level winds beneath stronger west-southwesterlies through the mid troposphere. Risk may continue through the evening, though gradually diminishing with time as the cold front shifts slowly southeastward. ...Southern Montana into the northern and central High Plains... A couple of short-wave troughs are forecast to shift east-southeastward across the northern Intermountain Region, with the lead disturbance expected to cross the central High Plains through the afternoon/evening. As heating/modest destabilization occurs, thunderstorm development is expected -- initially over the higher terrain from southern Montana into Colorado. Eventually, storms may congeal into clusters, moving off the higher terrain and into the northern and central High Plains. Given dry/deeply mixed subcloud layer, a few damaging wind gusts can be expected, warranting MRGL risk upgrade. Risk should diminish through the late evening in most areas. ...Arizona... As daytime heating/mixing/destabilization maximizes through the afternoon across Arizona, scattered convective development is expected. It appears that with low-level easterly flow beneath mid-level southeasterlies, some potential for propagation of storms off the higher terrain into the lower deserts could occur, with gusty/locally damaging winds not entirely out of the question. However, risk appears a bit uncertain/limited at this time, precluding an areal depiction at this time. ..Goss.. 07/23/2022 Read more

MD 1564 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 490... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1564 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Areas affected...Southern and eastern Ohio into Southwest Pennsylvania and West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490... Valid 231744Z - 231945Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 490 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging to severe winds will remain possible through the afternoon hours as an MCS continues to move east. However, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated given the overall weakening trends of the system. DISCUSSION...An ongoing MCS continues to push east/southeast into eastern and southern OH. In general, satellite imagery and echo top data all show weakening trends over the past 60 minutes as the system becomes increasingly outflow dominant. While a few wind damage reports have been noted, most surface stations support this trend with recent observed wind gusts generally in the 30-45 mph range. Downstream into southwest PA and WV, mostly clear skies ahead of the line has allowed for MLCAPE to increase to around 2000-2500 J/kg with little inhibition. This is fostering some re-development along parts of the outflow boundary (new, but isolated, convective towers are noted in latest IR imagery along the line), and these storms may continue to support a sporadic wind threat into WV and PA. Modest deep-layer flow sampled in downstream VWPs is supporting upwards of 20-25 knots of effective shear, which should limit the potential for robust storm intensification. Given these observations, a downstream watch is not currently anticipated, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 07/23/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LMK... LAT...LON 38718377 39238322 40068221 40718157 41078103 41087904 40357855 39567866 38837922 37958034 37898227 38028323 38278388 38718377 Read more

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW UNI TO 20 NNE ZZV TO 15 N CAK. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC009-013-019-029-059-067-081-099-111-115-119-121-127-151-157- 167-231840- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON MAHONING MONROE MORGAN MUSKINGUM NOBLE PERRY STARK TUSCARAWAS WASHINGTON PAC003-007-059-073-125-231840- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY BEAVER GREENE LAWRENCE WASHINGTON WVC009-029-051-069-073-095-103-231840- Read more

WW 490 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 231540Z - 232200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms across central Ohio at late morning will continue to progress east-southeastward this afternoon toward eastern Ohio, northern West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania. Strong to severe wind gusts will remain a possibility this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Akron OH to 50 miles southeast of Zanesville OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S FRM TO 25 NW MKT TO 30 E MSP. ..LEITMAN..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...ABR...MPX...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC013-037-079-103-131-139-147-161-231840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH DAKOTA LE SUEUR NICOLLET RICE SCOTT STEELE WASECA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 489 SEVERE TSTM MN SD 231130Z - 231900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Minnesota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 630 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially isolated severe thunderstorms over the western parts of the watch area, in SD, are expected to expand/organize into a complex of severe thunderstorms through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. As this activity moves east-southeastward over the next several hours, a threat exists for both severe wind and occasional damaging hail. The tornado potential may increase toward the later hours of the watch time in MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles either side of a line from 30 miles west of Aberdeen SD to 45 miles east of Mankato MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...WW 488... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29040. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts (some over 75 mph), a few tornadoes and large to very large hail will be possible today across parts of the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes regions. ...Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes... Current MCS across southern Minnesota with a recent history of measured strong/severe wind gusts should continue to organize/grow upscale as it thrives along the instability gradient toward southern Wisconsin and far northeast Iowa and possibly far northern Illinois through the afternoon. Damaging winds will likely be the most common hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur along with at least some tornado risk. Additional severe storms are also likely to develop along the southeastward-moving front this afternoon/early evening across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa southwestward into the central Plains, including parts of Nebraska and northern Kansas, where severe-caliber wind gusts will be most probable risk. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley... A quasi-linear MCS persists at midday across Ohio with at least some persistent potential for wind gusts, with a bit of rejuvenation possible as the downstream air mass diurnally destabilizes. Additional isolated/episodic severe storms will remain possible across northern Illinois/northern Indiana into Ohio along the trailing boundary and atop the remnant surface cold pool. A secondary round of storms via the Minnesota/Wisconsin MCS could move into parts of the region later tonight, most probable in areas farther to the north toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. ..Guyer/Moore.. 07/23/2022 Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE VPZ TO 25 NW MIE TO 35 SSW MIE TO 40 SW CMH TO CMH TO 25 SSW CLE. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC011-015-023-057-059-065-095-097-157-159-171-181-231740- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL CLINTON HAMILTON HANCOCK HENRY MADISON MARION TIPPECANOE TIPTON WARREN WHITE OHC045-083-089-129-231740- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD KNOX LICKING PICKAWAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0491 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 231635Z - 240000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southeast Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1135 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will likely continue to intensify and progress east-southeastward across the region through the afternoon, with additional near-frontal development possible across southern Minnesota/northern Iowa this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Minneapolis MN to 50 miles east southeast of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 488...WW 489...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022/ ...Synopsis... A strong midlevel shortwave trough will track east-southeastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant cold front sweeps southward across the central Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the approaching cold front, southerly surface winds will strengthen across the central and southern Plains, where 20-25 percent minimum RH is expected. Given receptive fuels across the region, elevated conditions will be possible -- especially from the northern TX Panhandle northward through western KS and western NE. Behind the cold front, breezy/gusty northerly surface winds and low RH will persist across western NE and western KS into the evening hours. However, scattered showers/thunderstorms along/ahead of the southward-advancing cold front casts uncertainty on the duration of elevated conditions across the aforementioned areas, precluding Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE PIA TO RFD TO 30 WNW BEH. ..MOORE..07/23/22 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC037-043-063-089-091-093-197-231640- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL WILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 22 18:00:02 UTC 2022.