Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 20 13:43:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail (as large as 2 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph are possible from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and into Minnesota this afternoon through early tonight. ...Northern Plains this afternoon through early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northern UT this morning will eject northeastward to the western Dakotas by early tonight, around the northwest periphery of the closed high over the MS Valley. A surface front extending from northwest NE to central SD/eastern ND will move little today, and then begin to accelerate eastward tonight in response to the ejecting midlevel trough. Upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained along the front through this evening, as well as eastward into MN. Surface heating (especially along and east of the stalled front), beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km, will result in MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg this afternoon/evening near and east of the front. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to form by mid afternoon in advance of the ejecting midlevel trough, within the post-frontal environment from northeast WY into northwest NE. Convection will subsequently spread northeastward across the Dakotas through late evening. Vertical shear will be strongest along and west of the stalled front, and buoyancy will be largest along and east of the front. Thus, the best chance for supercells and/or sustained bowing segments with isolated significant severe (2"+ hail and 75 mph gusts) will be along the front in the zone of most favorable overlap. Storms that form farther west will pose more of a marginal wind/hail threat as a result of the weakening buoyancy with westward extent across the northern High Plains, and storms in the warm sector east of the front will encounter larger buoyancy and weaker vertical shear, which favors occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 06/20/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 19 13:57:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 19 13:57:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail to tennis ball size and severe gusts to 75 mph are possible, mainly this afternoon into early tonight across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. More isolated storms with strong/damaging wind gusts may occur from western Colorado to western South Dakota, and across the Florida Peninsula. ...Eastern MT/western ND through early tonight... The deep midlevel trough over the Great Basin is beginning to move slowly eastward, and an embedded speed maxima over UT this morning will eject north-northeastward on its eastern periphery toward eastern MT. At the surface, a cyclone will develop slowly north-northeastward along a baroclinic zone from southwest ND toward southwest MB. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will persist in a corridor well east of the surface cyclone and a trailing lee trough across the High Plains, while dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s immediately west of the low track in the northeasterly surface flow across eastern MT and northwest ND. The presence of moderate buoyancy coincident with this northeasterly flow contributes to long hodographs and strong storm-relative inflow favorable for supercells, with large CAPE and much weaker deep-layer vertical shear farther east in the warm sector across ND. Thus, the primary threat area for bowing segments/supercells with the potential to produce very large hail near tennis ball size and severe gusts near 75 mph will be from eastern MT into western ND, near and just west of the cyclone track/front this afternoon through early tonight. ...Western SD/eastern WY to western CO through late evening... Eastward progress of the Great Basin midlevel trough will bring stronger midlevel flow farther east compared to previous days. Despite widespread clouds to slow surface heating, long/straight hodographs could support some organized storm structures within the monsoonal moisture plume across western CO, with some potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts. Farther northeast, midlevel flow will be a little weaker, but inverted-v profiles will favor a few strong-severe outflow gusts with high-based storm clusters late this afternoon/evening near the lee trough. ...Central/western FL Peninsula this afternoon... Another day of largely diurnal convection is expected, with thunderstorm development focused by a weak front drifting into north FL, and local sea breeze circulations farther south. Weak northeasterly midlevel flow suggests that multicell clusters will spread southwestward this afternoon. The strongest storms will have the potential for a few damaging downbursts given precipitation loading with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and downdrafts aided by DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. ..Thompson/Dean.. 06/19/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 18 13:25:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 18 13:25:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR FL...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO WESTERN AR/EASTERN OK...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon/evening from the eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas vicinity southeastward to the central Gulf Coast, and across the Florida Peninsula. Sporadic strong gusts will be the main hazards with these storms. Isolated severe storms may also occur over portions of northwestern Montana, accompanied by risk for both large hail and damaging winds. ...AR/LA/MS and FL this afternoon/evening... In conjunction with an amplifying midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface cold front will move southward into FL and southwestward across AR/MS/LA this afternoon/evening. Weak lift along the front, in combination with large MLCAPE (3500-4000 J/kg) and DCAPE (greater than 1000 J/kg), will support widely scattered storms by mid-late afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated damaging downbursts from western AR/eastern OK into southern MS/southwest AL. Storm coverage will be somewhat greater across the FL peninsula as a remnant MCV moves southward from southeast GA, and low-level lift is provided by the surface cold front and the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sea breezes. Though vertical shear will be weak, thermodynamic profiles will favor isolated damaging downburst winds with multicell clusters moving southward across FL this afternoon. ...Northwest MT... A slow-moving, north-south front will remain across northwest MT through tonight, in the southerly flow regime to the east of a deep midlevel trough near the Pacific Northwest coast. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s and surface heating on the east edge of the main cloud band will result in modest destabilization today, and thunderstorm development will be possible along the front/differential heating zone this afternoon/evening. Though buoyancy will be modest, very long hodographs will support the potential for a supercell or two, with the attendant threats of isolated large hail and damaging gusts. ...Southern/central Rockies to the northern High Plains... The Southwest monsoon is underway with a plume of PW near or above 1 inch across eastern AZ/western NM, between the upper trough along the Pacific coast and the ridge over the Plains. Gusty outflow winds will be possible from the Four Corners northward where pockets of stronger surface heating and steeper lapse rates coincide with convective clusters. However, it appears unnecessary to add a 5% wind/Marginal risk area to such a large area to account for sparse damaging/severe gusts. Strong surface heating and deep mixing could support isolated high-based storms this afternoon/evening along a lee trough from the NE Panhandle into southwest SD. Inverted-v profiles suggest some potential for strong outflow gusts, but the threat for severe storms appears too low to warrant the introduction of 5% wind probabilities/Marginal risk. ..Thompson/Dean.. 06/18/2022 Read more

WW 0383 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 383 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 383 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-115-137-155-171640- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-037-041-043-045-049- 051-053-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-087-089-095-097- 109-113-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133-135-137-147-151-153- 155-159-161-165-167-169-171-173-175-181-187-189-191-193-195-197- 199-201-203-205-207-209-217-229-231-235-237-239-171640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDERSON BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 17 15:40:04 UTC 2022.

WW 0382 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MKL TO 25 SSE CKV TO 15 NE BNA TO 25 NE BNA TO 25 SE BWG. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...MEG...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 382 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-021-025-027-031-035-037-039- 041-043-049-051-055-061-065-081-083-085-087-093-099-101-103-105- 107-111-115-117-119-121-123-127-129-133-135-137-139-141-143-145- 149-151-153-159-169-173-175-177-181-185-187-189-171640- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BENTON BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CHEATHAM CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DECATUR DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY HAMILTON HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON KNOX LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN LOUDON MCMINN MACON MARION MARSHALL MAURY MEIGS MONROE MOORE MORGAN OVERTON PERRY PICKETT POLK PUTNAM RHEA ROANE RUTHERFORD SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SMITH Read more

WW 382 SEVERE TSTM TN 171400Z - 171900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 382 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 900 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 900 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...MCS in southwest Kentucky will spread southeast across portions of Tennessee through early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west of Chattanooga TN to 40 miles northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0381 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW SDF TO 15 ESE SDF TO 35 NE SDF TO 50 NNE SDF TO 45 W LUK. ..BUNTING..06/17/22 ATTN...WFO...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 381 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC003-009-031-061-085-099-103-123-141-179-211-213-215-227- 171640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BUTLER EDMONSON GRAYSON HART HENRY LARUE LOGAN NELSON SHELBY SIMPSON SPENCER WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 381 SEVERE TSTM IL IN KY MO 171105Z - 171600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and northern Kentucky Extreme southeastern Missouri * Effective this Friday morning from 605 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A convective system with a history of severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph will continue to spread eastward and southeastward into southern Illinois/Indiana and adjacent areas of Kentucky through this morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Salem IL to 30 miles northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 380... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEVADA...WESTERN UTAH...AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA... The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on morning observations and trends in latest guidance. Very dry conditions were analyzed over southern NV into southwest UT this morning, and regional VWPs have sampled very strong (40-65 mph) winds within the lowest 1-2 km. These winds are already beginning to mix to the surface where temperatures have warmed into the low 80s, and will become more widespread through the late morning and early afternoon hours. These observations maintain high confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions today with the potential for periods of extremely critical conditions along the NV/UT border. Other forecast concerns remain on track as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 06/17/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough along the West Coast will progress into the Great Basin today. Strong mid-level winds will overspread the region in conjunction with a surface trough deepening within the Basin into the northern Rockies. To the east, an upper-level ridge will remain across the Plains. Mid-level moisture will push westward and a modest lee trough will develop in the central/northern High Plains. ...Great Basin... Very strong surface winds of 25-35 mph, primarily in Nevada/Utah, are expected to develop within the region by afternoon. Regional soundings from Thursday night show single digit RH and this can be expected to continue today. Areas of extremely critical fire weather are possible given these meteorological conditions. Fuel sparseness where these conditions are expected may limit a greater fire weather risk. Mid/upper-level clouds will also be on the increase during the day, particularly in the westernmost areas. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible along the western periphery of the mid-level moisture. Areas most likely to be affected are from the Four Corners into southwestern Wyoming. ...Central High Plains... Elevated to near-critical fire weather is expected for parts of the region. Afternoon RH will fall to 15-20% with the lee trough promoting 15-20 mph winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 383 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 171420Z - 171900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far southeast Indiana Eastern Kentucky Far southern Ohio * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1020 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Broken thunderstorms along eastward-moving outflow may consolidate as it spreads across mainly eastern Kentucky through early afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Cincinnati OH to 45 miles southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 381...WW 382... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Grams Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are expected this morning across the lower Ohio Valley and this afternoon/evening from the southern Appalachians to southern Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia. More isolated severe risk may evolve across portions of the southern/eastern New England, the northern High Plains, and the northern Rockies. ...Lower OH Valley this morning to the Carolinas this afternoon... An overnight MCS continues to move generally east-southeastward this morning toward southern IN and northern KY. The convection is being maintained by a warm/moist boundary layer where overnight temperatures remained near 80 F with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates. Some discrete propagation of the MCS has been observed as a result of somewhat modest low-midlevel shear on the southern edge of the stronger mid-upper flow. However, the favorable thermodynamic environment will maintain a pronounced cold pool and the continued potential for occasional wind damage through the morning. The threat for damaging gusts will also continue into the afternoon/evening as the low levels destabilize, supporting renewed storm development along the leading edge of the cold pool into southern VA and the Carolinas. ...New England today... As a midlevel trough digs southeastward from ON/QC, a surface cold front will move eastward across New England and southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. Long, mostly straight hodographs, with effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, are expected today across southern New England into ME. However, midlevel lapse rates will be poor and forcing for ascent will be modest, which suggests that updrafts will not be particularly robust. A few storms with strong/damaging gusts may occur today, but the threat for more widespread severe storms appears rather low. ...Northern High Plains late this afternoon/evening... West of the midlevel ridge over the Plains and east of a deep trough near the Pacific coast, lee trough development is expected across the High Plains. This trough could focus isolated, high-based thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening immediately east of the higher terrain from eastern WY northward into MT. A very warm elevated mixed layer will tend to cap the more moist boundary layer east farther east of the lee trough and along a warm front into eastern MT. This, combined with largely meridional flow aloft, will keep convection close to the trough and higher terrain. Given the very steep low-midlevel lapse rates, a few storms with strong-severe outflow gusts will be possible. ..Thompson/Marsh.. 06/17/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 16 13:14:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 16 13:14:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Thu Jun 16 2022 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon/evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes can be expected. Strong/severe thunderstorms with hail/wind will also develop across portions of the central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley region. Isolated strong storms will also develop across the Gulf Coast states. ...Northeast States... Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper ridge extending from TN into New England. This ridge will rapidly shift eastward today as a progressive upper low over northwest Ontario approaches, resulting in large scale forcing and strengthening winds aloft overspreading the Northeast states. A very moist and potentially unstable air mass is present over much of NY/PA, where daytime highs well into the 80s and dewpoints near 70F will yield MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and little capping inversion. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form along an approaching cold front over northeast OH into western NY, while other isolated cells intensify in the warm sector across parts of NY/PA. Low-level winds are not forecast to be particularly strong, but favorable deep-layer shear and degree of instability suggest that discrete supercells will be possible, capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. This activity will spread eastward during the afternoon/evening across the ENH risk area, with upscale growth into short bowing segments expected. Damaging winds and hail would be the primary threats. ...MO/IL Vicinity... As the aforementioned upper low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region, a cold front will sag southward into the mid MS and OH valleys. Weak forcing aloft is expected to limit convective development during the day. However, a strengthening low-level jet will likely contribute to scattered thunderstorms by mid-evening along and just north of the front. This activity will build southeastward through the evening with a large hail and damaging wind threat. ...Gulf Coast States... Similar to yesterday, westward-moving afternoon thunderstorms are expected from the FL Panhandle westward into parts of LA/MS. Hot and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid/upper 90s and large CAPE values will promote damaging wind gusts in the stronger cores. ..Hart/Mosier.. 06/16/2022 Read more