Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 3 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 3 17:55:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night centered over parts of northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas and western Louisiana. Several tornadoes are possible over Texas with damaging winds spreading into Arkansas and Louisiana overnight. A strong tornado or two may occur from late afternoon into early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over NM will deepen and pivot northeastward across northern TX, OK and KS during the day, then toward the mid MS Valley by 12Z Saturday. Coincident with this wave will be a strengthening mid and upper-level speed max with strong cooling aloft from the TX Panhandle into KS. At the surface, a cold front should extend roughly from eastern IA into southeast KS and to a low over southwest OK at 12Z Friday, with gradual deepening of the surface trough from MO into northeast TX through 00Z. Southerly surface winds ahead of the cold front as well as a broad zone of 40-50 kt southwesterly 850 mb winds will aid moisture advection, with 68-72 F dewpoints south of the Red River, and low 60s F into southern MO. The end result will be a region of favorable instability, shear and lift from eastern TX and OK into western AR and LA, with a threat of several tornadoes and damaging winds. ...TX...OK...AR...LA... Scattered storms are expected to be ongoing near and north of a cold front from northwest OK into eastern KS, with strong deep-layer shear and cold temperatures aloft favoring hail. Given the front-parallel nature to the winds aloft, these storms may become elevated as the front undercuts the convection. Isolated damaging gusts could occur immediately along the boundary. To the south, moisture and instability will increase throughout the day ahead of the cold front in TX. As pressures fall, boundary-layer winds will become increasingly confluent along the I-35 corridor, with deepening moist profiles. Forecast soundings indicate that the capping inversion will not be very strong. As a result, increasing large-scale lift will likely lead to pre-frontal storms after 19-20Z over much of northern TX into southeast OK. Strong deep-layer shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will favor discrete cells, a few of which may mature into tornadic supercells as SRH increases to around 300 m2/s2 by 00Z. Other isolated supercells are possible farther southwestward into central TX as the cold front approaches the instability axis. Low-level shear will not be as strong farther south, but supercells will still be possible, including the threat of locally damaging hail. During the evening and overnight, the cold front will merge with any existing warm sector activity, with a severe squall line forecast. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes will be possible over eastern TX, western LA and AR, and eastern OK. Other severe storms may occur from northern AR into southern MO, where shear will be very strong, but instability minimal. Sporadic wind damage may occur overnight in these areas. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TX PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Potential exists late tonight for a tornado along with isolated to perhaps scattered severe wind and hail from the eastern Texas Panhandle into central Kansas. ...Central/southern Great Plains... An amplified shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will shift east across the Southwest through early Friday. Associated lee surface cyclone over southeast CO will drift east before accelerating late tonight into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles. A southwest to northeast-oriented cold front will push southeast across the central Great Plains and Mid-MO Valley. A north to south-oriented Pacific cold front will eventually merge with the southern High Plains dryline. Low-level moisture largely characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points will continue to spread north through tonight from central/east TX into KS ahead of the fronts. This will support gradual destabilization in the warm sector which will remain capped until later tonight. Scattered thunderstorm initiation appears likely between 06-12Z along/to the cool side of the front in KS and near/south of the cyclone when the Pacific cold front merges with the dryline, as mid-level height falls overspread these boundaries. Convection is expected to be rooted near or just above the surface, in an environment of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg and moderate mid-level lapse rates. Rather elongated straight-line hodographs, largely due to robust speed shear above 700 mb, will foster organized updrafts. Flow alignment paralleling the front and the undercutting nature of the boundary in KS should subdue the overall severe wind and hail threat. A tornado is possible given storms will be rooted near the surface, though low-level hodograph curvature is forecast to diminish along the cold front by the time storms form overnight. ..Grams/Moore.. 11/03/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong/deep southwesterly flow will overspread the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains ahead of a highly amplified western CONUS trough. At the same time, a surface low will deepen over eastern CO, while a dryline extends southward along the southern High Plains. While strong/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected across the central and southern High Plains, increasing cloud coverage with northward extent will temper RH reductions. With that said, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are still possible across parts of the central High Plains given strong/gusty winds over dry fuels. Farther south, deeper boundary-layer mixing will yield 15-20 percent minimum RH behind the dryline over the TX Trans-Pecos region. These dry conditions, coupled with the strong/gusty surface winds, will support locally enhanced fire-weather conditions. The primary mitigating factor is fuels, which only appear modestly receptive to wildfire spread -- precluding an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 2 17:50:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 2 17:50:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, central Kansas and far south-central Nebraska Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two will be possible. ...Synopsis... A deep and progressive upper trough over the western US is forecast to intensify as it ejects eastward over the southern High Plains and northern Mexico late Thursday through early Friday morning. Initially positively tilted, a potent 500 mb jet streak (80-100 kt) along the West Coast should further deepen the upper trough as it becomes more neutrally tilted, and moves eastward late in the forecast period. At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep east across the northern Plains while a secondary front moves through the Great Basin and Rockies. A lee low should develop early Thursday, aiding in advection of a rapidly modifying Gulf airmass northward over the southern/Central Plains. ...Central and southern Plains... Beginning early Thursday, mid-level ascent and southwesterly flow aloft will begin to overspread the Rockies and central High Plains ahead of the deepening upper trough. In response, a lee low should develop and drift eastward along a weak/stalled cold front over the central High Plains and Midwest. Aided by increasing southerly pressure gradients, a warm and moist Gulf airmass should advect northward with low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints reaching the Red River by early evening. While the bulk of large-scale forcing is expected to remain farther west with the main upper trough, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within the southwesterly flow should approach the TX Panhandle and High Plains near and after 00z. A conditional risk for isolated storms may develop along a lee trough/weak dryline across portions of the southern TX Panhandle where the greatest overlap of forcing for ascent overlaps with increasing surface moisture for buoyancy. Sufficient MLCAPE (~500 J/kg) and long mid-level hodographs (0-6km shear 50-60 kt) may support supercells capable of damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the development of isolated storms given poor timing of the upper-level system with the diurnal cycle and the slower westward progression of surface moisture/destabilization. Low-level advection should continue overnight keeping at least marginally unstable conditions through the overnight hours. Farther north, confidence is somewhat better that mid-level warm advection and convergence along the southeastward moving cold front will allow a few, mostly-elevated, thunderstorm clusters/line segments to develop farther north across portions of western and central KS into far southern NE. This appears likely to be closer to the end of the period (12z Friday) as the main forcing begins to eject eastward. While surface moisture (mid 50s F surface dewpoints) and buoyancy is expected to be more limited, isolated hail and damaging winds may be possible with any organized convective clusters able to become established and persist into early Friday morning. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 11/02/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast for the central and northern High Plains (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. Modestly dry, windy conditions are likely later this afternoon east of the Elevated highlights into the central and northern Plains, where localized fire spread concerns exist. However, RH is expected to be too high to support widespread significant wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will amplify over the western CONUS, while deep/enhanced southwesterly flow overspreads the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the same time, an attendant surface cyclone will deepen over the northern Plains, while lee troughing extends southward along the High Plains. South-southwesterly surface winds will strengthen across most of the Great Plains in response to these developments, though substantial RH reductions will generally be confined to the central High Plains northward into parts of the northern High Plains/Upper MO Valley. Here, two distinct corridors of high-end elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. For both Elevated areas, 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected. For the southern Elevated area, the strongest surface winds (aided by a southerly low-level jet over KS) may be displaced slightly east of the more substantial RH reductions. With that said, high-end elevated to near-critical conditions are still expected. Similarly for the northern Elevated area, the strongest surface winds may develop slightly north of the best RH reductions, though brief critical conditions are still possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the Lower 48 states. ...Synopsis... A weak perturbation over the Middle TN/OH River Valley will continue to the east through the day within a building synoptic ridge over the eastern CONUS. This feature will provide adequate lift for thunderstorms along/off the Carolina coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Across the West, a large upper wave will continue to amplify to the east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley over the next 24 hours. Cool temperatures aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the upper trough will provide meager, but adequate, instability for occasional lightning flashes across portions of the Sierra Nevada and West Coast this afternoon and evening, and eventually into east UT/west CO overnight. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected across western FL amid diurnal destabilization and weak convergence along the coast. Gradually improving flow aloft through the afternoon may support a strong storm or two, but the potential for severe hail/damaging winds remains too limited for risk probabilities. ..Moore/Grams.. 11/02/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 1 17:22:02 UTC 2022.

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 1 17:22:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper air pattern will amplify on Wednesday with a large-scale trough over the West and ridging into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will maintain dry and stable conditions over most of the central and eastern CONUS, with low-level moisture return occurring late in the period over southern Texas where it will remain capped. Elsewhere, weak easterly surface winds will maintain a moist air mass over Florida, and isolated weak convection will be possible during the day due to heating. However, lapse rates will remain poor with weak wind fields. Farther west, cooling temperatures aloft will result in weak instability over the Four Corners area, with a few lightning flashes possible. Isolated low-topped convection may also occur over the Pacific Northwest beneath very cold temperatures aloft. ..Jewell.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A southern-stream shortwave trough over Texas will continue east-northeastward and reach the Tennessee Valley tonight. Thunderstorm potential will continue to shift eastward from south Texas toward the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Well ahead of this trough, a small/narrow inland warm sector across coastal North Carolina may be conducive for a few thunderstorms. In the West, a large-scale trough will advance inland over the Pacific Northwest through tonight. A broad area of low-topped convection will overspread coastal areas within the post-frontal environment. Cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates will contribute to weak surface-based buoyancy and the potential for isolated low-topped thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight across coastal Oregon/Washington and northern California. ..Guyer/Moore.. 11/01/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The only major change was to expand Elevated highlights farther north into southwest North Dakota, where the latest guidance consensus depicts at least a few hours of dry and windy conditions atop dry fuels later this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue Nov 01 2022/ ...Synopsis... A substantial large-scale trough preceded by deep/enhanced southwesterly flow will advance eastward across the western CONUS. At the same time, an attendant surface cyclone will evolve slowly eastward across MT, while lee troughing extends southward along the northern and central High Plains. As a result, 15-20 mph south-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across parts of the Great Plains and central Rockies. Over the northern and central High Plains, efficient diurnal heating amid downslope warming/drying will favor 15-20 percent minimum RH given limited low-level moisture return. As these dry/breezy conditions overspread increasingly receptive fuels, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions can be expected. Farther west, locally enhanced fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the Great Basin -- where dry/breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon. However, only marginally receptive fuels across the area cast uncertainty on the fire-weather threat, precluding highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 31 17:46:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough and cold front over the OH Valley are forecast to move eastward through the mid Atlantic and offshore early in the forecast period. At the same time, a second low-amplitude wave is progged to move along the Gulf Coast within broad west/southwesterly flow over the eastern half of the CONUS. Post-frontal offshore flow is expected over much of the Atlantic Coast, though the cold front is forecast to stall across portions of south TX. To the west, a much stronger trough and front will continue to deepen/organize as they move onshore across the Pacific Coast. Strong mid-level flow will further deepen the trough as it quickly moves inland over the Great Basin and central Rockies into early Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the strong front across much of Coastal WA, OR and CA, though buoyancy will be weak. With thunderstorms mostly confined to coastal areas with marginal buoyancy, severe potential appears low over much of the CONUS. ...South TX... Scattered thunderstorms are expected early in the period near and along the stalled front across coastal south TX given weak isentropic ascent and modest upper-level forcing from the departing shortwave. While a few stronger storms are possible over southeast TX, the front is expected to push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico by mid day. With meager inland moisture return, modest and mostly elevated buoyancy should limit the severe threat. ...Coastal North Carolina... A few stronger storms are possible early in the day across portions of far eastern NC ahead of the fast moving surface front. While buoyancy is expected to remain modest (generally less than 500 J/kg), moderate background flow and strong frontal forcing may support a brief window for a damaging wind gust or two with loosely organized bands of storms. The front should quickly move offshore by the early afternoon limiting severe potential. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 10/31/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER TX GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and an isolated tornado may occur overnight along the Lower Rio Grande Valley and Lower Texas Coast. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave perturbations are evident in mid-morning water vapor imagery within a broad troughing regime across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. These features are expected to provide lift over the East Coast as well as southern TX/lower TX Gulf Coast where adequate low-level moisture and modest lapse rates will provide sufficient buoyancy for deep convection this evening and overnight. ...Lower Texas Gulf Coast... A more prominent shortwave over north-central Mexico will translate east through the day towards the lower TX Gulf coast. Pressure falls ahead of this feature will maintain onshore flow and continue to bolster boundary-layer moisture across southern TX. Lapse rates will slowly improve by the evening hours as temperatures cool aloft, which should yield MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage late this evening/overnight as lift ahead of the wave overspreads the unstable air mass. 50-60 knot flow aloft overlaid atop the easterly onshore flow regime will yield adequate deep-layer shear for a few organized cells as well as 0-1 km SRH values near 100 m2/s2, which is favorable for a brief/weak tornado. ...Carolina Piedmont... One of the embedded shortwaves over the Midwest/Great Lakes region will continue to lift to the northeast through the day. This will maintain a broad swath of 35-45 knot south/southwesterly mid-level flow along the East Coast. Weak isentropic ascent within this regime is evident in IR imagery in the form of weak convection embedded with stratiform rain across the southern Appalachians. To the east of this activity, partly cloudy skies over northern SC into central NC have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s. These temperatures, combined with a modest influx of marine moisture (dewpoints in the low/mid 60s), should be adequate to support SBCAPE values near 500 J/kg by late afternoon/early evening. While a few cells capable of locally strong winds are possible from north-central SC into central NC, weak forcing for ascent and uncertainties pertaining to destabilization preclude introducing severe probabilities. ..Moore/Grams.. 10/31/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Oct 31 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly midlevel flow over the northern CONUS will favor breezy surface winds across the northern High Plains. However, limited RH reductions and marginal fuels across this region should generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more