Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic/enhanced midlevel flow will persist across the eastern CONUS through the period, while several embedded impulses (evident in water vapor imagery) track northeastward through the flow. This weak large-scale ascent, coupled with a plume of warm advection and cold midlevel temperatures, will support sporadic/embedded lightning flashes within a larger precipitation field along/east of the Appalachians into the overnight hours. At the surface, a baroclinic zone is draped along the GA/Carolinas coast, with upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints just offshore. This boundary and high theta-e airmass will make little inland progression today owing to the aforementioned widespread precipitation and related cloud coverage west of the boundary. However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave will develop northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic coast, which could favor somewhat greater surface-based instability over immediate coastal areas into the overnight hours. While the enhanced midlevel flow/veering wind profile will support surface-based supercell structures over the Atlantic waters, east-northeastward storm motions should generally keep this activity away from the aforementioned coastal areas. Therefore, the risk of surface-based storms over land appears too conditional for low severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman/Hart.. 11/15/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 AM CST Tue Nov 15 2022 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The forecast remains on track with localized elevated conditions expected to develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning along parts of the southern CA coast. Cool temperature and widespread rain/snow chances will mitigate fire concerns elsewhere across the CONUS. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Mon Nov 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... For today, a large upper-level trough will continue to strengthen in the East. Along the West Coast, another shortwave trough will dig southward along the California coast through the day. At the surface, high pressure in the Great Basin will strengthen into Wednesday morning. Winds across parts of Los Angeles/Ventura Counties will begin to increase during the evening and into Wednesday morning. RH will take some time to fall. Values below 20% appear possible for a few hours late in the period. Winds of 20 mph could extend to the coast, particularly in Ventura County. Winds up to 40 mph are possible within the more wind-prone areas of the terrain. Fuel dryness remains rather marginal after recent rains, but some elevated fire weather can be expected where fuels are locally drier. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 14 17:50:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1952 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1952 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Areas affected...south-central and southwestern OK Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 141741Z - 142045Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow with rates near 1 inch per hour will continue across west-central OK this afternoon, and possibly spread east-southeastward across south-central OK in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loops show strong DCVA overspreading western OK ahead of a compact midlevel shortwave trough approaching west TX. Cold/saturated deep-layer thermodynamic profiles over west TX (sampled by the 12z AMA observed sounding) coupled with the strengthening large-scale ascent are supporting areas of heavy snow across parts of western OK. As the DCVA continues to overspread a weak ENE-WSW-oriented midlevel thermal gradient across this area, frontogenetic forcing should aid in a somewhat focused corridor of snowfall rates near 1 inch per hour given a modestly deep and saturated dendritic growth zone. However, mesoscale ascent is not particularly strong here, so confidence in prolonged heavy rates in any given area is limited at this time. Over southwest OK, surface temperatures remain above freezing, though continued showers and related moistening of the boundary-layer should yield a transition to snow during the next couple hours. Farther east, regional VWP data depicts an increasing southerly low-level jet over north-central TX which will gradually impinge on a WSW-ENE-oriented low/mid-level baroclinic zone over south-central OK. As the aforementioned shortwave trough continues eastward this afternoon, strong mesoscale ascent -- aided by the larger-scale ascent -- will develop through this corridor by 20Z. This strong/focused ascent would conditionally support snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour (locally higher) for a few hours this afternoon. The main question across this corridor is the degree of surface cooling, as surface temperatures remain in the middle/upper 30s F. However, current indications are that continued wet-bulb cooling and descent of the melting layer could support additional surface cooling and a band of heavy snow. ..Weinman.. 11/14/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 34959961 35719972 36049958 36209929 36209904 36089869 35469854 35199802 34779698 34519703 34589752 34639816 34739874 34809923 34959961 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact portions of immediate central Gulf coastal areas Tuesday morning into afternoon, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the cyclonic flow aloft expected to cover the CONUS early Tuesday morning. The lead shortwave trough should be over mid MS Valley Tuesday morning, before then ejecting quickly northeastward through the OH Valley. Another shortwave will follow in the wake of this lead wave, moving from the central Plains across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley. Evolution of these shortwaves will encourage eastward expansion of the strong mid-level flow initially over the southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. By late Tuesday, moderate to strong mid-level flow is forecast to extend from the southern Plains eastward/northeastward across much of the eastern CONUS. At the same time, strong southerly low-level flow is expected to initially extend from the central Gulf Coast into the TN Valley. This corridor of stronger low-level flow should spread eastward/northeastward throughout the day, likely stretching from the Southeast Coast through VA by Tuesday evening. ...Central Gulf Coast... A surface low will likely near the immediate coastal areas of southern MS/AL. Location of this low will have a large influence on the downstream severe threat across southern AL into the western FL Panhandle. A more northerly location would likely result in more inland penetration of the warm sector. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the surface low early Tuesday morning, with convergence in the vicinity of the low and attendant frontal zone continuing to support storms in the warm sector throughout the morning. Low-level shear profiles suggest isolated gusts and a few tornadoes are possible with these storms. Weakening low-level convergence and displacement south of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent should lead to gradually diminishing thunderstorm coverage and intensity with eastern extent into more of GA and central FL Peninsula. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong low-level flow mentioned in the synopsis will extend across the region by the late afternoon/early evening. This strong low-level flow may overlay modest low-level moisture from far northeast SC into the NC Outer Banks from Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current expectation is for the more supportive thermodynamic environment to remain just offshore, limiting the severe potential over land areas. If guidance trends towards a more westerly position of the developing surface low, a small area of low severe probabilities may be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 11/14/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL AREAS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight over coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana. ...Synopsis... Water vapor loops depict a compact, southern-stream midlevel trough tracking eastward across eastern NM into west TX -- accompanied by strong west-southwesterly flow aloft. This feature will continue east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK this afternoon, prior to deamplifying and lifting northeastward into the Middle MS Valley this evening. In the low-levels, surface observations reveal an east-west-oriented baroclinic zone/marine front lifting slowly northward along the Lower/Middle TX coast. This boundary will generally remain confined to the immediate coastal areas of TX and LA through the period given its displacement from the aforementioned shortwave trough and widespread stratus clouds/ongoing elevated showers north of the boundary. At the same time, a weak frontal wave/coastal low currently over the Lower TX coast should drift east-northeastward along the boundary through the Middle/Upper TX coast and eventually eastward across coastal LA into the overnight hours. ...Middle/Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... Showers are ongoing off the Lower/Middle TX coast, where middle/upper 60s dewpoints reside. During the next couple hours, these showers should deepen into widely scattered thunderstorms as broad warm advection increases in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone/coastal low. As the lower/middle 60s dewpoints spread inland along the TX coast this afternoon, these storms will affect coastal areas of TX. While ongoing widespread cloud coverage will limit inland diurnal heating/destabilization, deep low-level moisture (sampled by 12Z CRP observed sounding) should allow for near-surface based inflow for this activity -- with more elevated storms further inland/north of the boundary. Strengthening warm advection beneath strong west-southwesterly midlevel flow will yield 50-60 kt of effective shear, and a large clockwise-turning low-level hodograph. While this wind profile will favor surface-based supercell structures across the warm sector, much of this activity could remain confined to the Gulf waters given eastward storm motions and richer offshore low-level moisture. Nevertheless, there will be some risk for this activity to overspread the immediate coastal areas of TX this afternoon -- with an attendant risk of a tornado or two, locally damaging gusts, and sporadic large hail. This evening into the overnight hours, storms will continue eastward along the baroclinic zone (ahead of the coastal low) into coastal LA -- where strengthening warm advection and strong midlevel flow will favor a continuation of near-surface-based supercells and organized clusters. A tornado or two along with isolated hail and damaging gusts will be possible with these storms during the overnight hours. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/14/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with only localized fire weather concerns expected across portions southwest Texas. Morning observations show west winds increasing and RH falling into the 20s across the Trans Pecos region within a subsident dry slot. These dry/windy conditions will spread east through the day, but morning fuel analyses continue to show largely unreceptive fuels over the greater southwest TX region. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/14/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Mon Nov 14 2022/ ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough will move through the southern Plains early today. Lingering strong mid-level winds will remain in the area after its passage, however. A low-latitude surface low will develop in the western Gulf Basin. This will drive colder air from the north into the southern Plains. Behind the cold front, surface winds of 15-25 mph are possible in parts of the Trans-Pecos into the Permian Basin. RH immediately behind the boundary may fall to 15-25%. With fuels remaining unreceptive to fire spread, only locally elevated conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 13 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 13 17:56:01 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX AND MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST ACROSS SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Middle into Upper Texas and Louisiana coastal plain Monday afternoon through Monday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Middle/Upper TX Coast into Southern LA... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the southern High Plains before continuing eastward across the southern Plains during the day and then more northeastward into the Mid MS Valley late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will accompany this wave, spreading across the southern Plains early Monday and across much of the lower/middle MS Valley by Monday night. Low-level moisture will attempt to return northward across TX ahead of this shortwave, but moisture scouring resulting from a previous frontal intrusion and largely continental trajectories will likely keep 60s dewpoints confined to the western and central Gulf Coasts. A surface low is expected to develop within the frontal zone in the vicinity of the Middle TX coast by Monday afternoon. This low should then move eastward over the immediate coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. The strongest large-scale forcing for ascent will be displaced well north of the Gulf Coast but low-level convergence near the low and warm front should provide enough lift for storm development. The kinematic environment supports supercells, with strong low-level flow beneath moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft. Given this kinematic support, the overall severe threat will be largely tied to thermodynamics. As such, location of the surface low and warm front will have a large influence on how far inland the warm sector penetrates and where the greater severe risks exist. Currently, the highest potential is anticipated along the near coastal areas of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two may occur in this areas. A low-probability threat for hail also exists just north of the warm front where a few stronger elevated storms are possible. ..Mosier.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are forecast into early/mid afternoon over central and southern Florida. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough currently over the Lower Great Lakes vicinity will lift northeastward across New England through the period. A related cold front extends south-southwestward off the Eastern Seaboard into the central FL Peninsula, where it becomes increasingly diffuse. Along/ahead of the southward-moving front, steep midlevel lapse rates atop upper 60s/lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints (sampled by the 12Z TBW sounding) will continue to support isolated thunderstorms across central into southern FL this afternoon. However, weak/shallow frontal ascent should generally limit convective coverage and intensity. Farther west, a closed midlevel low evident in water vapor imagery will dig southeastward across the southwestern states. As DCVA and cold midlevel temperatures preceding this feature overspread northern NM and southwestern CO, an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. However, the coverage of this activity appears too minimal for thunderstorm probabilities given marginal midlevel moisture/instability across the region. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/13/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CST Sun Nov 13 2022 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Localized elevated fire weather conditions remain probable this afternoon from the northeast TX Panhandle into northwest OK and west/southwest KS. Morning surface observations already show winds increasing to 15 mph, with further strengthening to 20-25 mph expected. The probability for widespread RH reductions below 25% remains low, but some areas may see periods of 20-25% RH with gusty winds. Elevated conditions are also likely for the Gila region of southeast AZ/southwest NM. However, latest fuel analyses continue to show ERC values near or below seasonal normals for both regions, which will mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/13/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Sat Nov 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners today and reach the southern High Plains by early Monday morning. This will promote a deepening surface low in eastern Colorado. An increase in low-level winds is expected across parts of the southern and central Plains. Recent cooler conditions and precipitation have generally moistened fuels in the region. Some of the stronger, gustier winds are probable in western Kansas. This area could see locally elevated conditions should RH fall low enough during the afternoon. As the trough moves east, stronger northerly mid-level winds will overspread southern California during the afternoon. At the same time, the offshore pressure gradient will increase through Monday morning. Some locally elevated conditions are also possible where fuels have remained drier recently, primarily out of the higher terrain. These areas should be quite limited spatially given the past weeks rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 12 17:54:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Synopsis... Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within the broadly cyclonic flow aloft across CONUS on Sunday. The lead shortwave is expected to begin the period over the Upper OH Valley, before then ejecting northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. A pair of phased shortwaves are expected farther west. The northern shortwave will extend from southern Saskatchewan through central MT early Sunday, while the southern shortwave extends from the western Great Basin through central CA. Expectation is for the northern wave to move eastward throughout the day, moving through eastern MT and into the northern Plains. The southern wave is expected to move more southeastward, progressing across the Four Corners/Southwest into the southern High Plains. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany the southern shortwave, but scant low to mid-level moisture and generally cold profiles should limit buoyancy. As a result, despite strong forcing for ascent, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain less than 10%. Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of this wave as well, with increasing low-level southerly flow across the southern Plains. Even so, low-level moisture return will be minimal due to the previous frontal intrusion. Low-level moisture will be in place over the FL Peninsula ahead of a weakening cold front. However, convergence along the front will be weak and low/mid-level temperatures will remain warm, limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level trough currently centered over the Upper/Middle MS Valley will gradually deamplify as it tracks east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes vicinity through the period. Within the broad downstream cyclonic flow aloft, water vapor imagery reveals an embedded impulse tracking northeastward across New England. As the associated lobe of ascent overspreads weak/elevated instability over eastern ME (per GYX observed 12Z sounding), isolated lightning flashes will be possible into early afternoon. In the low-levels, a cold front extends southwestward along the Appalachians into the Central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, isolated thunderstorms are possible over southeast LA -- where lower 60s dewpoints reside beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. However much of this activity may remain confined to the Gulf waters. Farther east, weakly confluent low-level flow coupled with diurnal heating of rich low-level moisture should support a few thunderstorms across the southern FL Peninsula this afternoon. These storms should generally be focused along the east coast -- where a very weak sea breeze should favor stronger convergence/mesoscale ascent. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow/shear (evident in the MFL 12Z observed sounding) should limit convective intensity/organization. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 11/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0938 AM CST Sat Nov 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns remain limited for today for much of the CONUS. Dry conditions are noted across portions of the southern/central High Plains and the lower CO River Valley, but weak winds are expected for these regions. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 11/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... A brief period of shortwave ridging aloft will occur within the Plains today. Through the day, however, southerly surface winds will be on the increase as the next shortwave trough moves into the Great Basin by early Sunday morning. With the strongest winds offset from afternoon RH minima and fuels generally unperceptive, fire weather concerns will be low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0569 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E ILM TO 35 NNW ILM TO 30 WSW CLT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944 ..WEINMAN..11/11/22 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 569 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-007-013-015-025-029-031-033-037-041-049-051-053-055-057- 061-063-065-067-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-101-103- 105-107-117-119-123-125-127-131-133-135-137-139-143-145-147-151- 153-157-159-163-165-167-169-177-179-181-183-185-187-191-195- 111840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ANSON BEAUFORT BERTIE CABARRUS CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DAVIDSON DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FORSYTH FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MECKLENBURG MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO Read more

WW 569 TORNADO NC SC VA CW 111115Z - 112000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and eastern North Carolina Northeastern South Carolina Central and eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 615 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The tornado threat well northeast of T.D. Nicole's center is expected to expand considerably northward/inland through early/mid afternoon, as Nicole accelerates into the western Carolinas, and its outer convective bands interact with a broadly destabilizing air mass. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Florence SC to 45 miles east northeast of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 568... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 12035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A semi-amplified/progressive upper-flow pattern will exist over the CONUS on Saturday. A prominent upper trough will shift east-northeastward over the Midwest/Great Lakes and Ontario. Isolated thunderstorm potential, associated with a minimally unstable environment, may linger across coastal New England Saturday morning prior to the cold front clearing the Eastern Seaboard. A few thunderstorms could occur along the middle Gulf Coast near the advancing front Saturday morning, although the greater probability and coverage of thunderstorms will be over the western/northern Gulf of Mexico. Across Florida, the glancing cyclonic influence of the Midwest upper trough, along with some increase in low-level convergence and a residually moist air mass across the central/southern Peninsula, will contribute to the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms on Saturday. A closed mid-level low with related -25C to -30C 500mb cold core will spread southeastward from western Oregon toward the Great Basin through Saturday night. Steepening lapse rates could influence some convective precipitation into parts of the Great Basin/Nevada, although marginal thermodynamic characteristics and a limited potential for charge separation should keep the potential for thunderstorms low. ..Guyer.. 11/11/2022 Read more