Severe Storms

MD 1944 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 569... FOR NORTHEAST NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1944 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Areas affected...Northeast NC into southeast VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 569... Valid 111706Z - 111900Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 569 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat continues across Tornado Watch 569, with a locally higher risk across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows pockets of cloud clearing/thinning amid rich boundary layer moisture (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) across parts of northeast NC into southeast VA. Here, surface winds are favorably backed beneath deep/strong southerly winds per RAX/AKQ VWPs. This wind profile is supporting modest low-level hodograph curvature/streamwise vorticity, characterized by 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per aforementioned VWPs. RAX radar data depicts a broken band of organizing supercell structures spreading northward into this increasingly favorable environment, and some modest intensification of this activity will be possible through the afternoon given increasing boundary-layer theta-e and strengthening low-level shear. Convection has generally been tracking northward at around 30 mph, though any discrete/semi-discrete cells that track more north-northeastward should pose the greatest tornado threat. ..Weinman.. 11/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36807824 37037817 37277800 37527770 37667744 37707702 37527655 37287619 36967596 36427576 36117576 35827625 35767675 35887733 36037775 36207804 36527823 36807824 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NC/VA...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... A couple of tornadoes are possible through mid-late afternoon over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia. Large hail will be the main severe-weather threat in south Texas this afternoon/evening. ...NC/VA through mid-late afternoon... The remnants of Nicole will accelerate northeastward and weaken by tonight over the Mid-Atlantic. In the interim, there will still be the potential for broken convective bands from NC into VA through the afternoon as some low-level destabilization occurs in cloud breaks. Curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH at or above 200 m2/s2 will be maintained northeast of the remnant circulation center through the afternoon, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible with supercells in the convective bands. ...Central/south TX through this evening... Slightly elevated strong-severe storms are ongoing across central TX on the immediate cool side of a surface cold front. This front will continue to move southeastward to the coastal plain by this evening, as an associated midlevel trough progresses eastward over the southern Plains. The threat for surface-based storms will increase some this afternoon from roughly San Antonio to Corpus Christi, just ahead of the front in a zone of ascent with a lead mid-upper speed max over the Big Bend (as evidenced by the warm sector convection over Real County as of 16z). Long/relatively straight hodographs, midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km, and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support the potential for a few supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail (2 inch diameter or larger) and damaging gusts from early afternoon until the storms move off the middle TX coast by late evening. ..Thompson/Weinman.. 11/11/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Fri Nov 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather concerns will remain minimal across the CONUS in the wake of a strong cold front across the Plains and due to widespread precipitation across the East Coast associated with the remnants of Hurricane Nicole. Locally dry/breezy conditions across the higher terrain of southern California will wane through the day amid a weakening pressure gradient. ..Moore.. 11/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Strong surface high pressure will be present across much of the western and central U.S. today. A combination of cooler temperatures and recent/expected precipitation will keep fire weather concerns minimal during the period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...parts of northern Missouri into eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101747Z - 101915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with storms gradually strengthening along a cold front. A WW issuance appears unlikely given the isolated extent of the severe threat. DISCUSSION...A strong surface cold front continues to advance eastward in tandem with a mid-level jet streak overspreading the Upper MS Valley. Ahead of the cold front, small cloud breaks, and diurnal heating is supporting surface temperatures warming into the 70s F, that combined with 60+ F surface dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 17Z mesoanalysis) is contributing to 500 J/kg of tall, thin MLCAPE. Coincident with this marginal buoyancy is a unidirectional speed-shear profile, with elongated, relatively straight hodographs shown by RAP forecast soundings. Modest, gradual intensification of a low-topped squall line is underway along the cold front in central IA and this trend may continue through the afternoon. Damaging gusts are the main threat, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should remain isolated though, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40229393 42199297 43319240 44809136 44939060 44858987 44378934 43538922 41899029 40529139 40009166 39489204 38899268 38619328 38719383 38969412 39469425 40229393 Read more

WW 0566 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0566 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 566 TORNADO GA SC CW 101745Z - 110000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 566 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Offshore thunderstorms will continue to track inland and pose a risk of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles south of Waycross GA to 55 miles northeast of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 565... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 12025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible Friday across parts of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic States... Per latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center, a gradually weakening Nicole should be centered over west-central/north-central Georgia Friday morning, and subsequently continue northeastward parallel to the Appalachians as it undergoes a post-tropical transition through Friday afternoon and Friday night. Even though Nicole is expected to weaken, low/mid-level winds on its eastern periphery will remain strong including a 45-55 kt low-level jet. Meanwhile, rich low-level moisture, characterized by at least upper 60s surface dewpoints, is expected to spread inland ahead of the surface low from the central Carolinas into southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Friday evening. This moisture along with the possibility of some cloud breaks in conjunction with enlarged low-level hodographs (effective SRH of at least 200-300 m2/s2) will support low-topped supercell potential. Current thinking is the most supercell/tornado-favorable collocation of ingredients should materialize across central/eastern North Carolina into southern Virginia on Friday. The northward extent of the tornado risk across the Mid-Atlantic appears increasingly marginal with time Friday evening as boundary-layer instability becomes quite weak. But, low to mid 60s surface dewpoints could reach as far north as southern New England as the surface wave begins to deepen again in its post-tropical transition. ...Central into Coastal/Deep South Texas... The region will be influenced by the southern periphery of an upper trough/polar jet over the Plains. A southeast-moving cold front should generally be located from the ArkLaTex southwestward toward the Texas Big Bend Friday morning, with scattered thunderstorms ongoing along/behind the surface reflection of the front. These elevated post-frontal storms could produce some hail during the day, although mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep and elevated buoyancy will tend to remain weak (less than 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). As the boundary layer warms, a few surface-based storms may develop Friday afternoon near the surface front across Deep South Texas and the middle Texas Coast. Some of the storms may exhibit supercell characteristics with isolated large hail and damaging wind potential before the front clears the coast by Friday mid/late evening. ..Guyer.. 11/10/2022 Read more

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL GEORGIA TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...portions of Coastal Georgia to the South Carolina Border Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101731Z - 101900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated tornado threat may develop along the GA coastal area, up to the SC border this afternoon as a band of low-topped, transient supercells continues to shift northward. A WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Nicole continues to drift northwestward, with a band of low-topped transient supercells persisting along the GA/FL border. So far, these storms have produced mainly brief, transient low-level rotation, with no tornadoes reported or TDSs detecting on regional radars so far. Relatively more favorable, buoyant air has struggled to advect appreciably far inland, with northeasterly surface winds and cloud cover keeping temperatures/dewpoints down to around 68-70 F just north of the ongoing convective band. Visible satellite does show some clearing around the primary northward-moving band of transient supercells, suggesting that slightly more buoyant air may advect inland later this afternoon. Some guidance hints at MLCAPE approaching the 500-1000 J/kg range immediately onshore in the next few hours. Given favorably curved, elongated hodographs recently shown by regional VADs, this buoyancy could support an isolated tornado threat along the shoreline. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... LAT...LON 31298187 31988154 32288129 32518089 32588055 32498037 32188052 31728090 31528104 31318124 31298187 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 11/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move southeastward across the central US early Thursday. Dry post-frontal northwesterly flow will overspread the Plains by Thursday afternoon with relative humidity falling to around 20-25 percent across western Kansas south into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Though conditions will be dry and windy, much cooler temperatures and recent rainfall will keep fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1935 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Areas affected...eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 101638Z - 102045Z SUMMARY...Areas of mixed sleet and freezing rain should expand in coverage near a strengthening low this morning/early afternoon. DISCUSSION...As of 1620 UTC, upper air and objective analysis showed a deep upper trough and associated surface low across south MN, with a warm front extending northeastward toward the international border. To the north of the front, weak convection within the waa regime has supported some mixed precipitation including snow pellets and freezing drizzle over the last 2 hours. As lift and warm advection increase ahead of the approaching upper trough, additional precip should develop atop the shallow cold airmass north of the front from southeastern ND into north-central MN. Area RAP soundings show temperatures in the elevated warm nose near or slightly above freezing suggesting sleet and some freezing rain are likely to develop. Rates may briefly approach 0.25 inches per hour with weak embedded convective elements and some elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100 J/kg). A transition to all snow (heavy at times) appears likely later this afternoon and evening as the surface low and upper wave shift northeastward, weakening the warm nose and deepening the freezing layer. ..Lyons.. 11/10/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 46549775 47489738 47949665 48389571 48629497 48789393 48609239 48449231 47889318 47059539 46769627 46489737 46549775 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Thu Nov 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...EASTERN GEORGIA...AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into eastern Georgia and South Carolina, and possibly overnight into southern North Carolina. Isolated damaging gusts are possible this afternoon across parts of the Upper Mississippi to Lower Missouri Valleys. ...FL/GA/Carolinas... Tropical Storm Nicole continues to affect much of FL. So far, convection over the eastern semi-circle has not shown significant intensity, with only occasional and transient rotating structures off of the coast near JAX. This is near a surface baroclinic zone that extends northeastward just off the GA/SC/NC coast. Most model solutions suggest this boundary will drift inland this afternoon, resulting in at least a conditional risk of surface-based deep convection. Shear profiles will be quite strong throughout this area, possibly resulting in a few tornadoes this afternoon and tonight if convective trends increase. The threat farther inland will be limited by northeasterly surface winds, dewpoints only in the 60s, and dense cloud cover maintaining a generally stable surface airmass. ...Upper MS Valley... A very strong surface cold front is sweeping eastward across parts of MN/IA/KS, and will affect much of the upper MS Valley through the day. Dewpoints in the 60s and partial daytime heating will lead to sufficient CAPE (generally around 750 J/kg) ahead of the front for a line of showers and low-topped thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Wind fields and forcing are strong, suggesting a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the more robust cells along the line. Morning CAM solutions differ on the extent/intensity of the convective line, and given the weak CAPE, there is doubt whether the line can become sufficiently organized to pose an organized damaging wind threat. Therefore will maintain MRGL risk. However, an upgrade to SLGT is possible later today if mesoscale trends show the line strengthening more than anticipated. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/10/2022 Read more

WW 0565 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SGJ TO 20 SE JAX TO 25 SW JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1934 ..SQUITIERI..11/10/22 ATTN...WFO...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 565 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-089-101640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC039-127-101640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN AMZ450-452-101640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 9 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 9 18:01:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes should occur Thursday into Thursday night over parts of Florida into coastal Georgia and the Carolinas in association with Tropical Cyclone Nicole. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms also appear possible across portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with damaging winds the main threat. ...Florida into Georgia and the Carolinas... The latest track from the NHC shows Tropical Cyclone Nicole over the central Florida peninsula Thursday morning. The track shows a northeastward turn through the day and the remnant surface low somewhere near central Georgia by 12Z Friday. This inland penetration of the center of the cyclone should allow a warm/moist warm sector to advance well inland across northeast Florida, eastern Georgia, and the eastern Carolinas. Low 70s dewpoints are likely with temperatures in the mid 70s which should be sufficient for 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the weakening surface low, guidance suggest the 925-850mb flow should maintain intensity of 50-55 knots through the day Thursday. In addition, some guidance suggests the low-level jet may strengthen after 06Z Friday morning as the tropical remnants start to interact with the larger trough to the west and low-level flow veers. At minimum, this should maintain a tornado threat through Thursday night/Friday into southeastern North Carolina. Additionally, it could potentially increase tornadic potential, particularly if surface winds can remain backed northeast of the cyclone while the low-level jet strengthens/veers, enlarging hodographs. Therefore, the slight risk has been expanded to include southeast North Carolina, primarily for the 06Z to 12Z period. The highest tornado potential will likely be near the Georgia and southern South Carolina coast. Shear and instability are expected to be greatest in this region with favorable diurnal timing during the afternoon hours Thursday. Most forecast soundings in this region show STP values around 1 with some guidance peaking around 2.5 for a few hours. In addition, most CAM guidance shows one or more well developed convective bands in the vicinity of this most favorable environment Thursday afternoon. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A fast-moving surface low will move across the Upper-Midwest on Thursday. Unseasonably high low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector (low to mid 60s F dewpoints). As the upper trough advances east, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front across the eastern Plains into the Upper-Midwest by early afternoon as convective temperatures are met. Mid level lapse rates should limit overall storm intensity. However, storms will be developing within a moderately strong wind field with a ~45 knot low-level jet. Therefore, some severe wind gusts may be possible with these storms, particularly those along the front whose updraft will be supported by the frontal convergence. Additionally, strong low-level speed shear may support a brief tornado threat, but this threat should be mitigated by veered surface flow and weak lapse rates. The duration of the severe weather threat will be limited by the narrow warm sector. Due to the fast storm motion, most storms will likely move east of the best low-level moisture by 22-23Z and quickly face their demise. ..Bentley.. 11/09/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical area in eastern CO based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 11/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will deepen across the Central Plains on Wednesday with strong surface winds and very dry conditions across eastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska just west of the dryline. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with a few localized areas approaching Extremely Critical in eastern Colorado. Surface high pressure will bring very dry conditions across portions of the eastern US with Elevated fire weather concerns in Eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. ...Eastern CO, Southeastern WY, and Southwestern NE... Critical fire weather is expected in eastern Colorado on Wednesday with the most favorable conditions for rapid growth of new fires across eastern Colorado. In this region, southwest surface winds sustained at 20-25 mph (locally higher around 30 mph gusting up to 50 mph) will combine with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 10-15 percent (locally dropping below 10 percent). In addition to the dry conditions and strong winds, temperatures will be above normal, with highs approaching the mid to upper 70s. Fuels in this region are critically dry, with ERCs in the 80-90th percentile for dryness. Fuels, in combination with the dry and gusty conditions, support a Critical delineation. A few isolated areas may briefly approach Extremely Critical. Outside of the Critical area, Elevated fire weather can be expected across far eastern Colorado, southwestern Wyoming, and southwestern Nebraska. Winds are expected to be around 15-20 mph with afternoon minimum relative humidity around 15-20 percent. Trends will need to be monitored closely in the position of the dryline and potential extension of the Elevated area. ...Eastern KY and West Virginia... Very dry conditions are expected across portions of eastern Kentucky and West Virginia on Wednesday, with a corridor of minimum relative humidity approaching 20-25 percent (locally as low as 15 percent). Winds in this region will be around 10-15 mph. Given the very dry fuels (above 80th percentile for dryness), warm temperatures, and recent fire activity across western and eastern Kentucky on Tuesday, an Elevated delineation is supported even with marginal winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 09 2022 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat is expected to develop this evening and persist tonight over parts of eastern Florida. Isolated damaging thunderstorm gusts may occur before dawn tomorrow in parts of the central Plains. ...Eastern FL... Tropical Storm Nicole will track eastward and approach the east coast of the FL Peninsula tonight. As the center approaches, surface winds along the east-central/northeast coast will back to easterly and eventually southeasterly, aiding in the transport of rich low-level moisture and high theta-e air. This, along with rapidly strengthening shear profiles, will result in an increasing risk of a few tornadoes. The threat is not expected to begin until after midnight tonight. ...NE/KS... A strong surface boundary extends from eastern CO into central NE today. A deep surface low is expected to form this afternoon in eastern CO as an upper trough approaches, then track eastward along the boundary tonight. Most model solutions suggest a narrow band of shallow convection will form in vicinity of this low as it tracks eastward across parts of southern NE/northern KS. Instability will be weak, but perhaps sufficient for locally gusty/damaging winds along the line - mainly after midnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 11/09/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 8 17:58:02 UTC 2022.

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Areas affected...portions of coastal Southern California. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081736Z - 082000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shoreward moving bands of low-topped convection may pose an isolated risk for strong/damaging wind gusts and or a brief tornado through the early afternoon. A weather watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Morning water-vapor imagery showed a well-developed upper trough and strong cyclonically curved jet streak moving onshore across portions of the West Coast. A cold front and convergence band associated with the main upper wave are forecast to move toward the near coast supporting a couple of bands of low-topped convection through the morning and early afternoon. Moist onshore flow will allow for weak destabilization in the lowest few kilometers with forecast soundings showing 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE ahead of the front. Very strong low/mid level wind fields will also be present with 0-6 km bulk shear of 60-70 kt favorable for storm organization into a QLCS. Orographic convergence may result in backing of the near-surface winds over the LA Basin and near shore aiding in a localized risk of a few strong/damaging wind gusts or perhaps a brief tornado over the next few hours. Given very limited buoyancy and uncertainty with storm coverage, a weather watch is not expected. ..Lyons/Hart.. 11/08/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGX...HNX...LOX... LAT...LON 34922068 34891904 34621766 34001718 33591722 33321744 33561804 33831888 33941939 33911981 33922022 33992062 34272084 34712093 34922068 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CST Tue Nov 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes appear possible mainly Wednesday evening/night into early Thursday morning across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Tropical Cyclone Nicole will likely be centered just east of the northern Bahamas early Wednesday morning. Expectations is that this cyclone will make steady westward progress throughout the day and overnight, reaching the coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Northwesterly flow will strengthen through the day as the system approaches. However, thermodynamics throughout the western periphery of the system are expected to remain unfavorable for deep convection, limiting the overall severe potential throughout the day. An increased severe potential is anticipated later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as greater low-level moisture attendant to the center of the cyclone moves into the coastal areas. This increase in moisture/buoyancy may result in few strong, more sustained updrafts and the potential for a tornado or two. Primary threat area is currently expected to extend from the Lake Okeechobee vicinity to south of Jacksonville Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Upper Midwest early Wednesday amid a warm-air advection regime fostered by an expansive low-level jet over the Plains. Strong vertical shear will be in place but poor lapse rates and modest buoyancy should keep the severe potential limited. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains throughout the day as a strong shortwave trough pivots through the deep mean troughing over the western CONUS. Resultant surface low is then forecast move northeastward across NE and through the Mid MO Valley overnight. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of a sharpening warm front associated with low, primarily from western SD across MN. Buoyancy will be slightly better than with the early morning storms, so a few storms may become strong enough to produce hail. However, coverage is still expected to remain less than 5%. Shallow convection in also anticipated along the front as it moves across NE and north-central KS early Thursday morning. Depth of the updrafts should be mitigated by warm mid-level temperatures, likely limiting lightning potential. Even so, given the robust low-level flow in place, a few strong, convectively augmented gusts are still possible. ..Mosier.. 11/08/2022 Read more