Severe Storms

WW 86 SEVERE TSTM AL 261700Z - 262300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 86 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from NOON until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Some severe potential may persist and somewhat increase this afternoon across southern Alabama as temperatures warm and the air mass destabilizes. Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds are the most probable hazards this afternoon. The tornado potential is expected to increase across parts of the region later into the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Evergreen AL to 30 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 84...WW 85... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0087 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 87 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...JAN...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 87 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-009-011-021-025-029-039-041-043-059-069-079-085-097-107- 115-127-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-291-351-373-403-405-407-457-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY NEWTON POLK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO TYLER Read more

WW 87 TORNADO LA TX 261745Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 87 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana Southeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Storms including supercells are expected to develop along a boundary from southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large hail can be expected, aside from damaging winds and an increasing tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Alexandria LA to 55 miles south southwest of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 86... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0359 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262006Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will rapidly increase in the next few hours across parts of Mississippi. Very large hail and tornadoes will be possible. A new watch will be issued within the hour. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has been occurring today across central and southern MS, where temperatures have risen well into the 80s. A surface warm front is lifting northward across the region, allowing 70s dewpoints to spread into central MS. This is yielding MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg with minimal cap. Several intense severe/supercell storms have developed over western/central LA that will track eastward into MS beginning after 4pm. Other isolated cells are likely to form out ahead of this activity through the evening. Forecast soundings indicate an environment very favorable for discrete supercells capable of very large hail and tornadoes. Low-level winds will strengthen rapidly by late afternoon/early evening. This may also increase the risk of strong tornadoes - especially for those storms that can track in vicinity of the surface warm front. A tornado watch will be issued within the hour. ..Hart/Guyer.. 03/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32679195 32858885 32198843 30748885 30569184 32679195 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern and Central Mississippi Southern Alabama Central Louisiana Far East/Southeast Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Two strong supercells have developed in far southeast Texas and should maintain themselves as they move east. The low-level jet is only around 25 knots per the LCH 18Z RAOB and the POE VWP. However, this flow is expected to increase to around 35 knots by 22Z. Therefore, the tornado threat is expected to increase once these storms reach eastern Louisiana and into Mississippi. See MCD 357 for additional information about the evolving threat in this region. A cluster of supercells has developed farther north across north-central Louisiana. Storm interference will likely keep the severe threat somewhat muted, but some large hail is possible from this activity. Additional supercells may develop across eastern Louisiana and central Mississippi this afternoon along and to the south of a frontal zone in the region. These storms will pose a threat for all severe weather hazards including tornadoes, some strong. Ongoing supercells across southern Alabama and vicinity are expected to continue through the afternoon and into the evening with mostly a large hail threat. See MCD 358 for additional details. A few damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado remain possible across Northeast Illinois/northern Indiana. See MCD 356 for additional information. ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The latest guidance consensus depicts relatively more widespread Critical meteorological surface conditions. Nonetheless, fuels remain modestly receptive to fire spread. As such, Critical conditions have been withheld, with the expectation for an overall high-end Elevated wildfire-spread threat to materialize by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft (70-80 kt 500-mb flow) will cross the central Rockies early in the day, promoting weak lee cyclogenesis over the central/southern High Plains. In response, breezy westerly surface winds should develop over portions of far southeastern CO, northeastern NM, and the western TX/OK Panhandles. Through this corridor, efficient diurnal heating/mixing and downslope warming/drying will yield 10-15 percent RH. This will favor elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon, prior to a Pacific cold front overspreading the region with a northerly wind shift during the evening/overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southeast Monday afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across central Texas Monday evening, and the Gulf Coast Monday night. Large hail and occasional damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal flow is expected across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Monday with neutral height falls/rises expected across the region. A surface low will move off the North Carolina coast near mid-day Monday with a cold front extending southwest to southern MS/AL where it is expected to become stationary and extend back into central Texas. This frontal zone will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day Monday and into Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southern Georgia and Vicinity... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from east-central Alabama into northern Georgia along the cold front. South of this cold front, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to near 80 with dewpoints in the mid 60s, yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. This instability will support strengthening of ongoing storms and new development along the front. Long/straight hodographs will favor splitting supercells, with the right-movers favored due to storm motion off of/ahead of the front. Veering of surface flow as temperatures warm and the boundary layer mixes should mitigate the tornado threat with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threat. ...Central Texas into the Gulf Coast... A large hail threat may develop Monday afternoon across central Texas in a region of weak isentropic ascent with MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. If forcing is sufficient for storm development, 90 kts of LCL-EL shear will support supercells with the potential for large hail. Most 12Z CAM guidance shows storms in the region, but intensity is relatively muted. Nonetheless, given the environment, at least isolated large hail is possible. Overnight, a surface high pressure center will move into the northern Plains. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the southern Plains and advance the surface front southward. As this front moves south into a progressively more unstable airmass, thunderstorm chances increase. MUCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg is expected from central Texas to the Louisiana coast with moderate mid-level flow providing ample shear for storm organization. Therefore, a conditional supercell threat is possible from central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Most storms will likely be elevated due to the front as the primary forcing mechanism and its southward movement during the early morning hours on Tuesday. However, some guidance has a few cells developing ahead of the front and remaining surface based for an hour or two. ..Bentley.. 03/26/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Episodic severe thunderstorms will persist into tonight across a broad portion of the Deep South/Southeast States. A few strong tornadoes and very large hail may occur with the most intense storms, particularly from central Louisiana across central/southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and evening. ...Deep South/Southeast... Some severe potential, mostly in the form of hail/wind, may continue early this afternoon across the South Carolina Piedmont/southern North Carolina. This environment also remains conditionally favorable for a few severe storms to the west across southeast Mississippi, south-central Alabama, into west-central Georgia near the effective front. This sub-regional corridor may be experiencing a bout of shortwave ridging, but that at the same time, the boundary layer will continue to diurnally destabilize. Focus then quickly turns farther west to the potential for deep convective development along the northward-shifting boundary from east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, which could potentially occur relatively early, during early/mid-afternoon. See Mesoscale Discussion 354 for more short-term details. Low-level shear/SRH will not initially be strong but strengthen through late afternoon/early evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds increase and low-level hodographs enlarge. Storms, including initially semi-discrete/intense supercells, will tend to cluster/gradually grow upscale along the boundary with hail/wind potential, but an increased concern for tornadoes, some of which may be strong/intense (EF2+), would exist with supercells that evolve/persist in a semi-discrete manner south of the boundary and move into and/or develop across south-central/southeast Mississippi, and eventually southwest/southern Alabama this evening as 850mb/1-2 km AGL winds further intensify. ...Illinois/Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across eastern/northeast Illinois as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability should still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, any convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk, and perhaps a brief tornado across north-central/northeast Illinois. ..Guyer/Moore.. 03/26/2023 Read more

WW 0085 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 86 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358 ..THORNTON..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 86 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-023-025-031-035-039-041-045-047-051-053- 061-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-109-113-129-131- 262140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MARENGO MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-262140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0084 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MCN TO 25 WNW OGB TO 10 E FLO. ..MOORE..03/26/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 84 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC033-107-125-163-165-245-251-261740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURKE EMANUEL GLASCOCK JEFFERSON JENKINS RICHMOND SCREVEN SCC005-009-011-027-075-261740- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL CLARENDON ORANGEBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0079 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 79 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343 ..MOORE..03/25/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 79 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-252140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC039-063-065-073-079-252140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON MADISON GAC003-007-017-019-027-065-069-071-075-087-091-095-099-101-131- 155-161-173-185-201-205-209-253-271-275-277-279-283-287-309-321- 252140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 79 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 251515Z - 252100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 79 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Northern Florida Southern Georgia * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 500 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to track across southern Georgia and far northern Florida this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Tallahassee FL to 15 miles south southeast of Vidalia GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0343 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 79... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0343 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of central and southern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79... Valid 252035Z - 252200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 079. Damaging gusts and large hail are the main threats. A local WW extension in time is planned. DISCUSSION...Multiple strong to potentially severe supercell thunderstorms continue to progress across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 079. MRMS mosaic radar imagery - 7 km CAPPI depicts an overall increase in storm intensity across the watch, with an increase in the number of storms with 30 dBZ exceeding 40 kft also noted. These storms are benefiting from a boundary layer experiencing maximum diurnal heating, overspread by a plume of 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates, contributing to widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite departing deep-layer ascent, 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear remains across the warm sector as 80+ kts of 500 mb flow from an associated jet streak glances the region from the north. As such, supercell structures may persist and continue supporting mainly a damaging gust/large hail threat through the remainder of the diurnal heating cycle. Since Severe Thunderstorm Watch 079 expires at the top of the hour, a local extension in time is planned to address the persisting severe threat. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31388508 32178379 32588267 32608239 32228224 31568235 31048259 30758310 30648374 30678417 30858479 31388508 Read more

WW 0080 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MGW TO 20 NE ERI. ..MOORE..03/25/23 ATTN...WFO...CLE...RLX...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 80 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC005-031-047-053-063-065-083-123-129-252140- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG CLARION ELK FOREST INDIANA JEFFERSON MCKEAN WARREN WESTMORELAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds will remain possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern/central Georgia this afternoon and early evening. Another round of strong to severe storms should occur early Sunday morning across portions of southern/central Alabama. Occasional damaging winds remain possible for the next hour or two across parts of western Pennsylvania and New York. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind ongoing convection that is rapidly progressing across northwest PA into western NY. Occasional damaging winds will remain the primary severe threat with this activity in the short term given the rather strong low/mid-level southwesterly flow present. A cold/stable airmass is present downstream of this convection into central PA and south-central NY. This will likely limit appreciable severe risk with eastward extent into these areas. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk areas across the Southeast. Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms continue in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 79 across parts of the FL Panhandle into southern/central GA. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization this afternoon, even though large-scale ascent/forcing remains nebulous. Isolated hail and damaging winds should remain the primary threats. Robust convection still appears probable late tonight into early Sunday morning from far eastern MS into southern/central AL and perhaps far west-central GA, mainly after 26/06Z (1 AM CDT), and continuing through the end of the Day 1 period. Large hail and strong/gusty winds may occur with any supercell that can develop. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a compact, well-organized upper low over the IL/IN region with a pronounced slot of dry air pushing north ahead of the main vorticity maximum. At the surface, a 994 mb surface low over southern lower MI is expected to gradually shift east/northeast towards the Northeast over the next 12-24 hours in tandem with the upper wave. Strong flow and ascent associated with this feature is expected to overspread the upper OH river valley and lower Great Lakes region, which will support the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms through the late afternoon. Across the Southeast, ongoing convection along a residual outflow boundary is expected to persist into the mid/late afternoon and intensify to severe limits. A late-night round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected during the early morning hours Sundays across parts of MS/AL as the outflow boundary advances north as an effective warm front tonight. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... Considerable clearing is ongoing across parts of southern OH into far southwest PA as the aforementioned dry slot advances northward. This clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s ahead of an approaching cold front, which, as of 15:45 UTC, is slightly warmer than most 12 UTC guidance. Consequently, low-level lapse rates have already increased to around 7 C/km where warming has been maximized. The combination of warming surface temperatures, mid to upper 50s dewpoints, and cool temperatures aloft will support increasing buoyancy through the mid-afternoon hours. Shallow convection evident in visible imagery along the front across western OH is expected to intensify as it moves into the destabilizing air mass. Strong kinematic fields sampled by morning soundings and recent VWP observations will be favorable for organized convection, and the steep low-level lapse rates will allow for efficient mixing of 50+ knot boundary layer winds to the surface. As a result, damaging winds appear likely across eastern OH to western PA and portions of western NY, though a few instances of severe hail and perhaps a brief tornado are plausible. ...Southeast Georgia and northern Florida... GOES IR imagery has shown a slow intensification of ongoing convection across portions of central/southern GA. Although this region will become increasingly displaced from synoptic ascent and stronger mid-level flow through the day, regional VWPs show sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection through peak daytime heating. Furthermore, quality low-level moisture (sampled by the 12 UTC TLH and JAX soundings) will migrate northeastward ahead of the convection, allowing for MLCAPE values to increase to near 2000 J/kg. As a result, the recent intensification trend will likely continue through the day and regionally augment the potential for damaging winds and hail. ...Alabama... The residual outflow boundary draped across the Southeast from prior convection over the past 24 hours is expected to gradually lift to the north through the day, eventually becoming draped from southeast LA into southern MS and central AL by late tonight. A weak mid-level perturbation is expected to move into the southern Plains/lower MS River Valley during the 00-12 UTC period, which will help strengthen southerly 850 mb flow and bolster isentropic ascent over the boundary. Despite some nocturnal cooling, profiles are expected to be weakly capped with MLCAPE values near 1000-2000 J/kg during the overnight period. Elongated hodographs featuring around 50 knots of effective shear should support organized cells, including splitting supercells, that will pose a severe wind/hail risk (though storm motions along the boundary may limit individual cell longevity and promote upscale growth into clusters). Timing of this convection remains uncertain with recent CAMs showing spread in the onset of convective initiation, but the probability of CI prior to 12 UTC has increased sufficiently to introduce higher risk probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... The ongoing forecast for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow across portions of far southeastern New Mexico into adjacent portions of West Texas appears to be on track. The only adjustment in this update was to trim off the northern portion of the critical area where the winds aloft are expected to be weaker. The most favorable area of critical fire weather conditions is where downslope processes and boundary-layer mixing will aid in downward momentum transport of the 50-knot westerly jet max at 700 mb moving across the region tomorrow. ..Jirak.. 03/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... Broad midlevel troughing will continue over the western CONUS on Day 2/Sunday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a strong westerly midlevel speed maximum will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains during the afternoon hours. ...Southeastern NM into parts of west TX... Strong downslope warming/drying coupled with efficient diurnal heating will support deep boundary-layer mixing across southeastern NM into west TX -- where 10 percent RH is expected during the afternoon hours. As the boundary-layer extends into the strong flow aloft, 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will develop across the region. The overlap of the strong/gusty winds and low RH will promote critical fire-weather conditions, especially given recent/ongoing drying of fine fuels over the area. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong deep-layer westerly flow and strong diurnal heating/mixing could support dry/breezy conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. However, substantial precipitation on Day 1/Saturday should generally limit the fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Sunday through Sunday night from far east Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Large hail to very large hail should be the main threat with any supercells. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Far East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period Sunday morning across parts of AL into GA. This activity will be aided by a modest southwesterly low-level jet and focused along a stalled surface front. Given strong deep-layer shear and moderate MUCAPE forecast, some of this convection could be supercellular and pose a threat for mainly large hail. These thunderstorms should spread eastward through the day across GA, and into parts of SC/NC. Most guidance suggests at least weak destabilization should occur along/south of the front and ahead of the morning thunderstorms. Some guidance suggests that this convection may evolve into a small bowing cluster with time Sunday afternoon, and pose more of a damaging wind threat with eastward extent into SC/NC. Farther west, additional robust convective development appears likely Sunday afternoon from far east TX into parts of LA and southern/central MS/AL. This activity will be related to the glancing influence of a shortwave trough progressing across the southern Plains to mid MS Valley, and persistent low-level warm advection atop the surface front. Moderate to locally strong MLCAPE is forecast across LA/MS/AL along and south of the front by Sunday afternoon, as both diurnal heating occurs and low-level moisture advances slowly northward. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also overspread parts of this region. Deep-layer shear of 50-60+ kt associated with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will easily support supercells with any convection that develops across the frontal zone. The threat for scattered large hail appears greatest Sunday afternoon and evening with initial semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail also appears possible. Although low-level flow/shear appears modest through much of the day, a southerly low-level jet should modestly strengthen Sunday evening. A threat for a few tornadoes should likewise exist as low-level shear gradually strengthens. Damaging winds also appear possible along/south of the length of the front with any surface-based convection. ...Eastern Illinois into Indiana... Low-topped thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon across eastern IL as a low-amplitude shortwave trough overspreads this region. Although low-level moisture should remain limited, enough weak instability may still develop through the day as mid-level temperatures cool with the shortwave trough passage. With some enhanced low/mid-level flow forecast, and convection that can develop and be sustained may pose an isolated damaging wind risk. ..Gleason.. 03/25/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO...EASTERN NM...WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND NORTHWESTERN TX... No changes are needed to the ongoing fire weather outlook, which includes a critical area for southeastern Colorado stretching south-southeastward into northwestern Texas. Despite relatively cool temperatures, critical fire weather conditions are already being observed this morning across the region with many locations reporting RH values below 15% and sustained winds over 20 mph, gusting to 40 mph. These conditions are expected to persist over the next few hours, but low-level flow (and subsequently surface winds) will gradually weaken through the afternoon, eventually tempering the fire-weather conditions. ..Jirak.. 03/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will persist across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent Plains, while a weak lee surface cyclone develops over the central/southern High Plains. ...Parts of eastern NM, southeastern CO, and the TX Panhandle/South Plains... Strong downslope flow off the central/southern Rockies coupled with efficient diurnal heating amid mostly clear skies will promote deep boundary-layer mixing across parts of the central/southern High Plains. As a result, widespread RH reductions of 10-15 percent are expected. As the boundary-layer deepens into the enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft, sustained surface winds of 20-25 mph (with higher gusts) are expected across parts of eastern NM into west TX, with a corridor of stronger sustained surface winds near 30 mph forecast over southeastern CO. These strong winds, combined with the low RH and recent drying of fine fuels, will yield critical fire-weather conditions over the aforementioned areas. ...Lee of the Appalachians... Dry/breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians during the afternoon hours, as a strong southwesterly midlevel speed maximum overspreads the region. However, given the localized nature of these conditions and early-day precipitation, any fire-weather threat should generally be marginal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0323 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 75... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023 Areas affected...central and southern Arkansas into northern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 75... Valid 242038Z - 242245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes is increasing across the watch area, and will likely extend east of the existing tornado watch this evening. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to organize along the cold front, particularly near the surface low over west-central AR where a small MCS has formed just on the cool side of the modifying outflow. Other storms extend southward along the primary cold front toward TXK, and farther south into TX. Of special note are multiple bands of convection which are gradually deepening within the moist plume near the Sabine River. This plume of 70+ dewpoints is resulting in over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, which is sufficient to support supercells as lift continues to increase with time. While a relative warm layer still exists near 700 mb as can be seen on the 18Z SHV sounding, the moist layer has already become deep enough to break the cap, resulting in warm-sector storms well east of the cold front. As the low-level jet increases this evening, so will shear and supercell/tornado potential. Effective SRH on the order of 300 m2/s2 with 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2 may support a few strong tornadoes with maturing cells east of the cold front. As such, a new watch will likely be needed to include areas east of WW 75. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33359373 34259343 34389336 34529327 34659305 34729272 34809212 34859170 34819145 34689095 34349083 33599089 32979110 32419127 31839193 31629251 31449305 31389336 31359361 31369398 31459421 31609426 32069416 32139412 33359373 Read more