Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 5 21:15:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 5 21:15:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through early Monday. No changes were made to the existing outlook. The greatest probability of thunderstorms will be tonight from IA into southern WI as strong theta-e advection occurs ahead of the shortwave trough with left-exit region of the upper jet nosing into the region. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023/ ...IA to Upper MS Valley... Small hail will be possible within the more vigorous elevated thunderstorms that are expected to develop after sunset, but the threat for severe hail appears negligible. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the MT/WY Rockies will move east into the Upper Midwest through early morning. Downstream of this wave, persistent low-level warm theta-e advection will intensify after sunset across the Upper MS Valley. This will yield a broadening plume of elevated convection this evening. Across the southern part of the convective area, the most-unstable inflow is anticipated but MUCAPE will remain below 1000 J/kg. Guidance does depict greater-than-average spread for a D1 forecast over the degree of effective bulk shear. Speed change with height appears most pronounced within the mid to upper portion of the elevated buoyancy profile, where thermodynamic sensitivities are seen across the suite of convection-allowing/parameterized guidance. The most probable scenario is for small hail to form in the stronger updrafts across IA and spread across a portion of the Upper MS Valley before subsiding overnight. ...Elsewhere... Isolated general thunderstorms are possible in portions of central FL, northern CA, and the Great Basin. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND THE NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE... No major changes will made to the current valid outlook. Critical fire-weather conditions are expected over portions of northeastern NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle. Less certainty in sustained elevated fire-weather conditions is expected farther northeast near a slow moving cold front over northwest OK and southern KS. While winds will be weaker here, very dry conditions may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential ahead of the front. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly mid-level flow will continue on Monday across the Southwest and southern High Plains. Deep-mixing is expected west of the dryline in a very dry airmass with surface dewpoints in the single digits. This deep mixing will transport some stronger mid-level flow to the surface with sustained winds of 35 mph expected across northeast New Mexico. In addition, some weak lee troughing is anticipated in the southern High Plains which may provide some additional support for stronger surface winds. Fuels in this area are around the 70-80 percentile and will continue to dry with multiple days of very dry and breezy conditions in the region. Therefore, larger fuels may start to become more receptive to fire in addition to the dormant fine fuels present across the southern High Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM...FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.... ...Southern and Central High Plains... A few changes have been assessed to the current valid outlook. The Elevated area was expanded slightly eastward across portions of west-central KS and western OK. Here, west/southwest surface winds may gust to 15-20 mph with RH below 20% through the afternoon. Drying fuels could support a risk of elevated fire-weather conditions. Farther north across eastern CO, lingering snow pack should limit the northern extent of fire-weather concerns, and the Elevated area has been trimmed slightly south. Widespread critical and isolated extremely critical meteorological conditions remain likely this afternoon and evening with strong downslope winds over portions of eastern NM, southeastern CO, and the OK/TX Panhandles. See the previous discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet across southern California and the southern Great Basin this morning will continue east to the central Rockies by this evening. As this stronger flow crosses the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This will result in strengthening winds across the southern and central Plains. A very dry airmass will be in place west of the dryline across much of the central and southern High Plains. In this region, deep mixing will also result in some of the stronger mid-level flow being transported to the surface. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected from northeast New Mexico and southwest Colorado into the TX/OK Panhandles where both the pressure gradient and mid-level flow will be maximized amid a dry and well-mixed boundary layer. Single digit relative humidity is expected in this region for most of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Mar 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A zonal flow regime aloft will exist across the CONUS on Monday prior to an upper trough gradually amplifying over the West. Low pressure will exist over the lower MO and mid MS Valley early in the day, related to the low-amplitude lead wave nosing into the upper MS Valley and Midwest region. This low will progress east across the OH Valley, while a surface high remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. As such, higher surface dewpoints will remain along and south of the Gulf Coast for much of the period, only gradually spreading north aided by modest 850 mb flow. Instability will remain weak and capped in this area. To the west, cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will lead to steep lapse rates, and a few thunderstorms will be possible mainly over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Sporadic lightning may occur over interior portions of western OR as well, owing to daytime heating resulting SBCAPE over 200 J/kg. Winds aloft and therefore shear will remain weak in this area. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CO AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES... The overall forecast remains on track with minor adjustments for the latest guidance. The Critical area was expanded into portions of southeastern CO where downslope winds near 25-30 mph, and higher gusts, may support afternoon humidity values in the single digits. Elsewhere, widespread elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are expected within drying fuels across the southern High Plains. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong westerly mid-level jet will persist across the Southwest into the central Plains on Sunday. This will lead to lee cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado during the day and a tightening pressure gradient. This pressure gradient, combined with downward momentum transport from deep mixing, will result in breezy conditions across the southern and central High Plains. Some sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. Relative humidity will be very dry with widespread single-digit relative humidity expected from southeast Colorado and western Kansas into eastern New Mexico and the TX/OK Panhandles. Fuels in this area have dried considerably over the past week with increasing reports of fire each passing day. Therefore, critical fire weather conditions are expected across northeast New Mexico and parts of the OK/TX Panhandles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 4 19:45:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. No changes were made to the previous outlook, with minimal thunderstorm activity over northern Florida, and today and tonight across parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak instability will preclude any severe risk. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. No changes were made to the previous outlook, with minimal thunderstorm activity over northern Florida, and today and tonight across parts of the northwestern CONUS. Weak instability will preclude any severe risk. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad upper trough will exist over the West on Sunday with a strong midlevel jet nosing east across the Rockies and toward the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift out of the Northeast, with weak upper ridging over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will cover much of the eastern CONUS as low pressure develops over the central plains in anticipation of the upper trough. A stalled front will stretch from FL into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this boundary will become a warm front late in the period as weak southerly flow returns across TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak instability will exist beneath the cold temperatures aloft over coastal OR and northern CA, with a few weak thunderstorms expected over this region. To the east, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE will develop over the upper MS Valley overnight as the low-level jet results in theta-e advection around 850 mb and lift is enhanced near the left-entrance region of the upper jet. Weak instability is likely to preclude any hail threat with this activity. Elsewhere, weak convection may occur along the stalled front over central FL where heating will lead to weak instability in a zone of minimal surface convergence. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A broad upper trough will exist over the West on Sunday with a strong midlevel jet nosing east across the Rockies and toward the northern Plains by 12Z Monday. Meanwhile, an upper trough will lift out of the Northeast, with weak upper ridging over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will cover much of the eastern CONUS as low pressure develops over the central plains in anticipation of the upper trough. A stalled front will stretch from FL into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and this boundary will become a warm front late in the period as weak southerly flow returns across TX and the western Gulf of Mexico. Weak instability will exist beneath the cold temperatures aloft over coastal OR and northern CA, with a few weak thunderstorms expected over this region. To the east, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE will develop over the upper MS Valley overnight as the low-level jet results in theta-e advection around 850 mb and lift is enhanced near the left-entrance region of the upper jet. Weak instability is likely to preclude any hail threat with this activity. Elsewhere, weak convection may occur along the stalled front over central FL where heating will lead to weak instability in a zone of minimal surface convergence. ..Jewell.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Negligible fire-weather conditions are expected this afternoon and evening. Dry conditions may develop across Florida, but any fire-weather concerns will be brief and localized. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid level flow will strengthen across the Southwest on Saturday as a mid level jet streak approaches the California coast. Some deeper mixing is anticipated which could bring some stronger flow aloft to the surface. However, this is mostly expected across western and central New Mexico where fuels are not yet receptive to large fire. Therefore, no Elevated delineation is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. ..Grams/Karstens.. 03/04/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 04 2023 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Sunday. ...North to central FL... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible into early evening along and just ahead of a frontolytic cold front. Relatively warm and rather dry conditions from 700-500 mb sampled in the 12Z JAX/TBW soundings will likely limit updraft vigor. In addition, veered southwesterly low-level flow and deep-layer shear vectors largely parallel to the weakening front should further mitigate organized updrafts. ...Bay Area vicinity of Northern CA... A low-topped squall forced along an impinging cold front may develop across the northern CA coast into the Bay Area overnight. With surface dew points only progged to peak in the low 40s, buoyancy should remain scant with potential for very isolated thunderstorms relegated north of an intense mid-level jet streak. Gusty winds could accompany the frontal squall, but the threat for severe thunderstorm damaging winds appears negligible. ..Grams/Karstens.. 03/04/2023 Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BHM TO 55 ENE RMG TO 40 S TYS TO 45 ESE LOZ. ..MOORE..03/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC027-111-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY RANDOLPH GAC015-045-057-143-149-223-227-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW CARROLL CHEROKEE HARALSON HEARD PAULDING PICKENS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 61 TORNADO AL GA NC TN 031635Z - 032200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Extreme southwest North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving QLCS will spread east-northeast from middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville TN to 25 miles south southwest of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams Read more