Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 7 21:28:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and hail remain possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast through early this evening. ...20Z Update... The western extent of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed based on current observations and short-term model trends. Weak north-northeasterly winds are occurring north of a cold front draped over the northwestern Gulf into far southeastern LA and coastal MS/AL. With just a weak surface mass response expected as a low-amplitude shortwave trough passes over the central Gulf Coast region, it appears unlikely that the front will return appreciably northward this afternoon/evening. Already limited severe potential should remain confined to where filtered daytime heating can overlap sufficient low-level moisture and deep-layer shear near the surface boundary. Overall severe threat still appears quite isolated, as the modest ascent associated with the minor mid-level perturbation should generally limit coverage of robust convection. ..Gleason.. 04/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023/ ...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast... Downstream of a broad, southern-stream upper trough over the southwestern CONUS, a belt of enhanced southwesterly midlevel flow extends across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Morning water vapor imagery indicates an embedded, convectively augmented vorticity maximum near the upper TX coast, which will overspread the central Gulf Coast during the day today. Beneath the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft, a quasi-stationary surface boundary/warm front extends from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states, becoming a cold front into the Southeast. In response to the approaching vort max/shortwave trough, a frontal wave will evolve east-northeastward along the surface boundary this afternoon, with a modest low-level mass response expected over southern LA/MS. Within a plume of broad low-level warm-air advection and deep tropospheric moisture along/south of the surface boundary, numerous showers/thunderstorms are spreading eastward across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and lower MS Valley this morning. While related widespread cloud coverage will limit diurnal heating/destabilization to an extent, rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) and at least filtered heating farther east should support surface-based thunderstorms along/south of the boundary this afternoon into the evening. Given the enhanced midlevel southwesterlies atop veering low-level flow (35-45 kt of effective shear), a few organized clusters/line segments and transient supercells will be possible. Isolated damaging gusts, sporadic large hail, and a brief tornado will all be possible. Farther east, ample diurnal heating of a moist air mass south of the cold front over central GA into far western SC will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. While low-level flow is very weak, 35-45 kt of effective shear could favor a loosely organized storm or two capable of strong gusts and/or marginal hail. However, most of this activity will likely be undercut by southward-spreading outflow and the cold front -- precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS... A Critical risk area has been introduced for portions of the central Plains. Recent guidance continues to show high confidence in a swath of elevated to critical fire weather conditions from the NM/CO/OK/TX region to the mid-MO River Valley. Although hi-res ensemble guidance maintains marginal probabilities for critical conditions across the region (largely due to somewhat marginal RH), bias-corrected ensemble means suggest that RH values in the near 20% are probable. This conceptually matches well with a southerly dry return flow regime over the plains, which usually verify windier/drier than most guidance. The Critical risk area delineates where confidence in critical conditions is highest based on HRRR/RAP solutions (which handle boundary-layer mixing better in these scenarios) and the expected location of the 925-850 mb wind maximum, but localized critical conditions may emerge on the periphery of this zone. ..Moore.. 04/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to shift east and flow will become more quasi-zonal. A shortwave trough will lift into the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will remain within the Great Lakes region. Another lee trough will develop in the central High Plains. The surface winds across western Kansas into eastern Nebraska will increase to 15-20 mph. There is again some uncertainty as to how low RH will fall, particularly with northward/eastward extent, but values around 20% are probable with some potential for values around 15%. At least elevated fire weather will be possible during the afternoon. Locally critical conditions may occur, but confidence in spatial/temporal overlap of the stronger winds with critically low RH remains low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Apr 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday into Saturday night across parts of the Southeast, as well as portions of the Rockies and adjacent southern/central Plains. Organized severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Appreciable low-level moisture will remain confined along/south of a front across the Southeast on Saturday. A weak mid-level perturbation embedded within modestly enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move from the central Gulf Coast eastward into the western Atlantic through the period. A narrow corridor of weak instability may develop by Saturday afternoon over parts of north FL where filtered diurnal heating can occur. Weak low/mid-level winds and related shear should temper the overall severe threat and updraft organization. But, isolated gusty winds may still occur with any of the more robust thunderstorms that can form. Otherwise, additional elevated convection appears possible along/north of the front across a broader portion of the Southeast. Severe potential will likely remain quite low with this activity given weak MUCAPE forecast. Isolated lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the southern/central Rockies and adjacent Plains as another weak upper trough migrates eastward across these regions. ..Gleason.. 04/07/2023 Read more

WW 0131 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 131 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..04/06/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 131 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-062240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-062240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-015-017-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-045-047-510-062240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES Read more

WW 131 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ VA CW 061855Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Northern North Carolina Southern New Jersey Central and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along the Blue Ridge over central VA, with storms moving eastward across the watch area through the afternoon. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Atlantic City NJ to 30 miles east of Danville VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

MD 0496 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 131... FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 0496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Areas affected...portions of Virginia into eastern Maryland and Delaware Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131... Valid 062044Z - 062215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 131 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for hail and damaging winds continues this afternoon across WW131. DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, several supercells have formed and matured along across southwestern portions of WW131 in southern VA. recent radar analysis and local storm reports show several of the stronger cores within these supercells have recently produced, or are capable of producing severe hail. The downstream, environment across eastern VA into DelMarVA remains favorable for these storms to continue, with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 35-50 kt of effective shear. Thus far, storms have remained relatively discrete favoring a greater hail threat. Recent radar and satellite trends suggest additional storms may form and cluster, potentially favoring a greater damaging wind threat with time. Storms should gradually shift east/northeastward with an increasing severe risk across portions of DelMarVa through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. ..Lyons.. 04/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37068049 38027907 38437862 39047781 39477694 39617648 39597613 39437583 39197553 38897521 38457498 37227585 36967679 36677801 36657909 36697983 36738044 37068049 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail remain possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Generally minor changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Convection is gradually increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon across western NC and southwest/south-central VA. Current expectations are for additional thunderstorms to develop along or ahead a southward-moving cold front across parts of central/northern VA into MD/DE and southern NJ. Low-level moisture remains greatest along/east of the Blue Ridge, where diurnal heating has also been maximized with generally less cloud cover compared to locations farther north/west. Even though low-level flow remains modest per recent VWPs from area radars, winds do gradually strengthen with height through mid levels. This is fostering around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear, with stronger shear present with northward extent across the Mid-Atlantic. A mix of supercells and small bowing clusters, capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds, should occur through the rest of the afternoon and into this evening as convection gradually spreads eastward. No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of coastal/south TX into southern LA and MS. Isolated hail and strong/gusty winds remain possible with the stronger cores that can develop and be sustained across this region. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic Region... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across PA/WV. This boundary will move into a warm/moist air mass by early afternoon over the Mid Atlantic region, where dewpoints the 60s and strong heating is present. A consensus of model guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing along/ahead of the front. This area lies along the southern fringe of stronger westerlies aloft, and in corridor of forecast afternoon MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Parameters are sufficient to promote a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Storms should be most active in the 21-03z period. ...TX/LA/MS... A surface front stretches from off the TX coast into southern LA/MS. Ample moisture and some daytime heating along/south of the boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. By mid afternoon, sufficient diurnal heating may result in a few robust storms capable of gusty winds or hail. This activity is likely to remain rather disorganized. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA... Model guidance this morning has come in stronger with the wind across the Plains tomorrow with a broad region of 20 to 25 mph sustained winds likely from eastern Kansas into southwest Nebraska. This will overlap a region of 13 to 18 percent relative humidity and dry fuels. A Critical area was added to address this concern. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic tomorrow. Dry and breezy offshore flow is expected across the region with sustained winds around 15 mph and relative humidity of 20 to 35 percent. Temperatures will be cool (45-55F), but the region has been dry and fuels are still pre greenup. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is possible, warranting an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 04/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1219 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... Weak mid-level troughing across the Rockies will lead to lee cyclone development and windy/dry conditions across the High Plains on Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles northward into western Kansas. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will be possible, with sustained winds 15-20 mph. Areas of terrain-driven Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across eastern Colorado. The localized nature of these conditions precludes the need for a Critical area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states. Occasional damaging winds and marginally severe hail appear possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada will move eastward on Friday, while upstream upper ridging shifts from the western CONUS to the northern/central Plains. Another upper trough should advance across parts of the Northwest. Cold-mid level temperatures, related weak instability, and ascent associated with this feature may support isolated lightning flashes with convection that develops Friday afternoon across parts of eastern WA/OR, western ID, and perhaps northern NV. ...Central Gulf Coast... A broad area of surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Friday morning should gradually shift eastward through the day. Rich low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of the Southeast, along/south of a cold front which is forecast to slowly sag southward through the period. Most guidance indicates that a weak mid-level perturbation will develop northeastward from coastal/southeast TX across the central Gulf Coast states through Friday evening. Even though low-level winds are expected to remain weak, enough mid/upper-level flow should be present to support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. With daytime heating, 500-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop across parts of southeastern LA into coastal/southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. The adequate effective bulk shear, in combination with sufficient instability, may support loosely organized convection across these areas. Occasional damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores that can develop. But, poor mid-level lapse rates and the lack of a stronger mid-level wave should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. ...Georgia... Enough low-level convergence along the southward-moving cold front may exist to foster isolated thunderstorms across parts of central GA and vicinity Friday afternoon. Although sufficient instability and deep-layer shear may be present along/south of the front for somewhat organized convection, it appears that any thunderstorms that do develop will quickly be undercut by the front and subsequently weaken. While a stronger thunderstorm or two with gusty winds appears possible, have opted to not include low severe probabilities for wind at this time. ..Gleason.. 04/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Thu Apr 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... As high pressure builds across the central US, easterly gradients will increase across far western Texas and eastern New Mexico. Weak moisture return will occur into eastern Texas, limiting the eastern extent of the threat. Further west, very dry conditions will continue with relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent and winds around 15 mph. HREF ensemble forecasts show the highest probability of overlap in windy/dry conditions from Trans-Pecos to the Permian Basin south to the Stockton Plateau. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected within these regions. The current Elevated area was maintained with no changes with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0130 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 E MLU TO 35 S GLH TO 30 NE GWO. ..SQUITIERI..04/05/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 130 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC025-029-041-065-083-107-052240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA FRANKLIN MADISON RICHLAND TENSAS MSC001-007-015-019-021-025-029-043-049-051-053-055-063-079-087- 089-097-105-121-125-149-155-159-163-052240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLAY COPIAH GRENADA HINDS HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA JEFFERSON LEAKE LOWNDES MADISON MONTGOMERY OKTIBBEHA RANKIN SHARKEY WARREN WEBSTER WINSTON YAZOO Read more

WW 130 SEVERE TSTM LA MS 051935Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon across the watch area, posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Natchez MS to 30 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 126...WW 127...WW 128...WW 129... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0129 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE GWO TO 45 SSE MKL TO 15 SE CKV TO 45 N BWG TO 25 W SDF. ..SQUITIERI..04/05/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 129 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-083-052140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LIMESTONE KYC001-003-005-009-017-021-031-045-049-053-057-061-067-073-079- 085-087-097-099-113-123-137-141-151-155-167-169-171-179-181-207- 209-213-217-227-229-239-052140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BOURBON BOYLE BUTLER CASEY CLARK CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON FAYETTE FRANKLIN GARRARD GRAYSON GREEN HARRISON HART JESSAMINE LARUE LINCOLN LOGAN MADISON MARION MERCER METCALFE Read more

WW 129 SEVERE TSTM AL KY MS TN 051840Z - 060200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Central Kentucky Northern Mississippi Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 140 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of scattered thunderstorms continues to track eastward into western Kentucky/Tennessee and northern Mississippi. These storms will remain capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two through the afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Lexington KY to 40 miles south southeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127...WW 128... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0128 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 128 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DAY TO 30 WSW CMH TO 60 N CLE. ..SQUITIERI..04/05/23 ATTN...WFO...ILN...CLE...PBZ...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 128 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC023-135-161-191-201-052140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRACKEN LEWIS MASON PENDLETON ROBERTSON OHC001-005-007-015-019-025-027-029-031-035-041-045-047-049-055- 057-071-073-075-079-083-085-089-093-097-099-103-117-119-127-129- 131-133-139-141-145-151-153-155-157-163-169-052140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ASHLAND ASHTABULA BROWN CARROLL CLERMONT CLINTON COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CUYAHOGA DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GEAUGA GREENE HIGHLAND HOCKING HOLMES JACKSON KNOX LAKE LICKING LORAIN MADISON MAHONING MEDINA Read more

WW 128 SEVERE TSTM KY OH PA LE 051805Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kentucky Much of Ohio Northwest Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio will track quickly eastward across the watch area this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main threat along the leading edge of these storms. An isolated tornado or two may occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Cleveland OH to 55 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 125...WW 126...WW 127... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN AL INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Areas affected...portions of western and northern AL into east-central MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052048Z - 052215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to diminish with eastward extent into parts of northern/western Alabama and east-central Mississippi. However, locally gusty winds and small hail may accompany strong cells through this evening. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms along an eastward-advancing cold front are ongoing from Middle Tennessee into central Mississippi late this afternoon. This activity will continue to shift northeast through the evening into parts of northern/central AL and east-central MS. Instability and shear across the downstream environment begins to wane across AL despite a warm and moist boundary-layer. An isolated strong storm or two could persist before weakening, producing locally strong gusts or small hail. Overall severe potential appears low at this time. A watch downstream from WW 129 and 130 is not expected, but trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34948638 34608619 34198639 33878656 33398700 32838762 32448834 32358876 32548912 32808916 33388863 33468862 34248794 34778693 34948638 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Corrected to include previous discussion... No changes. See previous discussion below. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023/ As surface high pressure builds in across the Central Plains on Thursday, easterly gradients will increase around the periphery of the high across far western Texas and New Mexico. Given relatively weak northeasterly flow along the Texas coast, some moisture return into Texas is expected, which will limit the eastern extent of this threat. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible from Trans-Pecos to the Permian Basin south to the Stockton Plateau in Texas and into portions of eastern New Mexico. In these regions, relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent and winds sustained around 15 mph will be possible, with ERCs around the 70-80th percentile. Combination of fuels and wind dry conditions support the inclusion of an Elevated delineation. ..Bentley.. 04/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0255 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... No changes. See previous discussion below. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0489 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 126...127...129... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023 Areas affected...portions of southern IN and western/Northern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 126...127...129... Valid 052005Z - 052130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 126, 127, 129 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and isolated QLCS tornadoes will remain possible this afternoon across portions southern IN and northern KY. DISCUSSION...As of 2000 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a well-developed QLCS located near the Ohio River across portions of southern IN and northwestern KY. Several bowing segments within the QLCS have recently produced measured severe gusts at Evansville, IN and Henderson, KY. Area VAD/VWPs show relatively elongated low-level hodographs with 0-3 km shear orthogonal to the line at around 35-40 kt. Despite strong veering of surface winds, the strong low-level shear remains supportive of damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes. Surface analysis and observational trends suggest this QLCS segment will remain within the favorable environment for the next 1-2 hours as it tracks east northeast toward the Louisville metro area. ..Lyons.. 04/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... LAT...LON 36988533 36728756 36768782 38458715 38638683 38938541 38868504 38608490 38328487 37888490 37558504 36988533 Read more