Severe Storms

WW 320 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS CW 162150Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Eastern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple discrete, slow supercells should persist across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, with a cluster of embedded supercells spreading south-southeast from northeast Mississippi. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Oxford MS to 25 miles east southeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 34030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RZZ TO 50 NNW AVC. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-162340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC009-017-019-033-037-039-045-047-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-013-025-033-036-041-047-049-053-057-059-061-065-073- 075-081-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-115-119-127-131- 133-135-137-145-149-153-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-510-550- 570-595-600-610-620-630-650-670-683-685-700-710-730-735-740-760- 800-810-830-162340- VA Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-039-041-061-063-073-089-099-101-162340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 318 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 161725Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Maryland Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Cold temperatures aloft will aid in the development of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Patuxent River MD to 30 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 319 SEVERE TSTM CO 161920Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East Central Colorado * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon off the Front Range, and along a surface boundary extending eastward toward western Kansas. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Colorado Springs CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319... Valid 162151Z - 162315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 continues. SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 over the next couple of hours. Severe hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A nose of ascent ahead of a midlevel speed max is evident in water vapor imagery across southern Colorado. This has aided in additional thunderstorm initiation across the area over the past hour. These initially discrete storms will pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds as they move into better moisture/instability farther east over the plains. As the number of storms increases across the area and cold pools begin to merge, one or more convective clusters/lines may evolve eastward posing a primary threat of severe wind. ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37730421 37950466 38230505 39070509 39370425 39510296 39510208 39250190 38980175 38490187 38160217 37840291 37730421 Read more

MD 1113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...eastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi and western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 162135Z - 162300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon/evening with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. Additional storms may move south from northern MS this evening. A new weather watch is likely needed. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley, afternoon heating and subtle forcing for ascent ahead of a shortwave trough has helped erode inhibition over portions of eastern LA and southern MS. Deepening cumulus and incipient thunderstorms were noted developing across the region. Very moist surface conditions with low to mid 70s F dewpoints and moderate mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km were aiding in the development of large buoyancy 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft is also supportive of an unusually strong wind profiles, with 50-60 kt of effective shear observed on area VWPs. Robust organized updrafts with a predominately supercellular mode are expected to continue to develop this afternoon. Hail, some possibly 2+ in, is likely with supercells, along with the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Hi-res guidance is somewhat uncertain on storm coverage late this afternoon and evening given relatively modest forcing for ascent. However, additional development upstream may allow for some upscale growth with a risk for damaging winds in the evening. Given the favorable parameter space, a new weather watch is being considered for portions of far eastern LA, southern MS and western AL. ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30158820 30248824 30529036 31259060 32329094 33149099 33739002 33648873 33398827 32998785 32288759 31428741 30718760 30608762 30238777 30158820 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARKANSAS VICINITY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging thunderstorms winds are possible across parts of the central High Plains, Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. ...Discussion... Little in the way of substantive changes are being implemented to the outlook at this time, as reasoning and areas laid out in the prior package remain consistent with current and expected trends. The most substantial change has been to expand the SLGT risk area in the lower Mississippi Valley region a bit farther northwestward, toward the Ozarks, where storms are currently increasing in coverage and may pose local hail/wind risk greater than previously anticipated. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1107. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic... A prominent mid-level trough and associated 50 knot jet max is rotating across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Scattered thunderstorms have already formed along the surface cold front over eastern PA and NJ. These storms will track eastward and offshore, while new activity builds southward into eastern MD/VA. Cool temperatures aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable deep-layer vertical shear will provide support for strong-severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail through the late afternoon. ...CO/KS... Morning model guidance hints at a weak shortwave trough over northern NM approaching the High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong daytime heating/destabilization is occurring along and south of a surface boundary paralleling the Palmer Ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the instability axis by mid-afternoon, tracking eastward into western KS this evening. Early storms will be discrete, with a few supercells producing large hail. As the storms build eastward, upscale growth into bowing structures is expected, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...AR to AL... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning over northwest AR - ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over northeast OK. The air mass ahead of these storms over AR/MS is very moist and unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to reach 3000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify to severe levels by mid-afternoon and track southeastward. Morning CAM solutions vary in the timing/placement of the corridor of greatest risk, ranging from northern MS/AL into northern LA. Regardless, clusters of storms are expected this evening tracking into parts of AL before weakening. Damaging winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ...FL Panhandle... A long-lived MCS is finally decaying as it tracks across the central FL panhandle. This activity is likely to dissipate by mid afternoon, with only a marginal risk of new storms forming on the remnant outflow boundaries. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARKANSAS VICINITY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging thunderstorms winds are possible across parts of the central High Plains, Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. ...Discussion... Little in the way of substantive changes are being implemented to the outlook at this time, as reasoning and areas laid out in the prior package remain consistent with current and expected trends. The most substantial change has been to expand the SLGT risk area in the lower Mississippi Valley region a bit farther northwestward, toward the Ozarks, where storms are currently increasing in coverage and may pose local hail/wind risk greater than previously anticipated. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1107. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic... A prominent mid-level trough and associated 50 knot jet max is rotating across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Scattered thunderstorms have already formed along the surface cold front over eastern PA and NJ. These storms will track eastward and offshore, while new activity builds southward into eastern MD/VA. Cool temperatures aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable deep-layer vertical shear will provide support for strong-severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail through the late afternoon. ...CO/KS... Morning model guidance hints at a weak shortwave trough over northern NM approaching the High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong daytime heating/destabilization is occurring along and south of a surface boundary paralleling the Palmer Ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the instability axis by mid-afternoon, tracking eastward into western KS this evening. Early storms will be discrete, with a few supercells producing large hail. As the storms build eastward, upscale growth into bowing structures is expected, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...AR to AL... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning over northwest AR - ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over northeast OK. The air mass ahead of these storms over AR/MS is very moist and unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to reach 3000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify to severe levels by mid-afternoon and track southeastward. Morning CAM solutions vary in the timing/placement of the corridor of greatest risk, ranging from northern MS/AL into northern LA. Regardless, clusters of storms are expected this evening tracking into parts of AL before weakening. Damaging winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ...FL Panhandle... A long-lived MCS is finally decaying as it tracks across the central FL panhandle. This activity is likely to dissipate by mid afternoon, with only a marginal risk of new storms forming on the remnant outflow boundaries. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARKANSAS VICINITY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging thunderstorms winds are possible across parts of the central High Plains, Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic. ...Discussion... Little in the way of substantive changes are being implemented to the outlook at this time, as reasoning and areas laid out in the prior package remain consistent with current and expected trends. The most substantial change has been to expand the SLGT risk area in the lower Mississippi Valley region a bit farther northwestward, toward the Ozarks, where storms are currently increasing in coverage and may pose local hail/wind risk greater than previously anticipated. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1107. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic... A prominent mid-level trough and associated 50 knot jet max is rotating across the Mid-Atlantic region today. Scattered thunderstorms have already formed along the surface cold front over eastern PA and NJ. These storms will track eastward and offshore, while new activity builds southward into eastern MD/VA. Cool temperatures aloft, steep mid-level lapse rates, and favorable deep-layer vertical shear will provide support for strong-severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail through the late afternoon. ...CO/KS... Morning model guidance hints at a weak shortwave trough over northern NM approaching the High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong daytime heating/destabilization is occurring along and south of a surface boundary paralleling the Palmer Ridge. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the instability axis by mid-afternoon, tracking eastward into western KS this evening. Early storms will be discrete, with a few supercells producing large hail. As the storms build eastward, upscale growth into bowing structures is expected, with an increasing risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...AR to AL... Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning over northwest AR - ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough over northeast OK. The air mass ahead of these storms over AR/MS is very moist and unstable, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to reach 3000 J/kg. Storms are expected to intensify to severe levels by mid-afternoon and track southeastward. Morning CAM solutions vary in the timing/placement of the corridor of greatest risk, ranging from northern MS/AL into northern LA. Regardless, clusters of storms are expected this evening tracking into parts of AL before weakening. Damaging winds and hail will be possible in the strongest cells. ...FL Panhandle... A long-lived MCS is finally decaying as it tracks across the central FL panhandle. This activity is likely to dissipate by mid afternoon, with only a marginal risk of new storms forming on the remnant outflow boundaries. Read more

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161957Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of severe hail are possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Robust surface heating has resulted in 80+ F temperatures and subsequent storm initiation amid a well-mixed boundary layer. While a general increase in storm coverage (and to a degree, intensity) is expected through the afternoon, weak vertical shear and mediocre mid-level lapse rates suggest storms should be short-lived and primarily pulse cellular in nature. Nonetheless, 0-3 km lapse rates are steep, reaching 9 C/km in some locales per 19Z mesoanalysis. As such, a couple of severe gusts may occur sometime this afternoon within the stronger storm cores, especially if any multicellular complexes can materialize. An instance or two of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40100018 41739987 42789929 42969787 42829724 42299643 41479621 40779659 40209738 40099761 39929848 39909936 40100018 Read more

MD 1110 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161957Z - 162230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts and perhaps an instance of severe hail are possible this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Robust surface heating has resulted in 80+ F temperatures and subsequent storm initiation amid a well-mixed boundary layer. While a general increase in storm coverage (and to a degree, intensity) is expected through the afternoon, weak vertical shear and mediocre mid-level lapse rates suggest storms should be short-lived and primarily pulse cellular in nature. Nonetheless, 0-3 km lapse rates are steep, reaching 9 C/km in some locales per 19Z mesoanalysis. As such, a couple of severe gusts may occur sometime this afternoon within the stronger storm cores, especially if any multicellular complexes can materialize. An instance or two of severe hail also cannot be ruled out. Nonetheless, the overall severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40100018 41739987 42789929 42969787 42829724 42299643 41479621 40779659 40209738 40099761 39929848 39909936 40100018 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern/central Rockies on Saturday with an enhanced belt of westerly flow. Meanwhile, a surface low-pressure system is expected to deepen in eastern New Mexico by the afternoon, resulting in strong westerly surface winds across most of New Mexico. A persistent, dry airmass across the region is expected to yield afternoon RH values in the single digits concurrent with 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. A critical area has been delineated where meteorological conditions and dry fuels overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern/central Rockies on Saturday with an enhanced belt of westerly flow. Meanwhile, a surface low-pressure system is expected to deepen in eastern New Mexico by the afternoon, resulting in strong westerly surface winds across most of New Mexico. A persistent, dry airmass across the region is expected to yield afternoon RH values in the single digits concurrent with 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. A critical area has been delineated where meteorological conditions and dry fuels overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 06/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern/central Rockies on Saturday with an enhanced belt of westerly flow. Meanwhile, a surface low-pressure system is expected to deepen in eastern New Mexico by the afternoon, resulting in strong westerly surface winds across most of New Mexico. A persistent, dry airmass across the region is expected to yield afternoon RH values in the single digits concurrent with 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds. A critical area has been delineated where meteorological conditions and dry fuels overlap. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE SBY TO 35 SE ACY. WW 317 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 162200Z. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ANZ455-162200- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the central Gulf Coast region into much of Florida. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong southern-stream flow will persist across the southern U.S. Saturday, with one trough within this stream to move across the Southeast, and a second to shift out of the Rockies and into the Kansas/Oklahoma area later in the period. Meanwhile in the northern stream, lows are forecast to reside over western Canada and the Northeast U.S. through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain generally in place east-to-west across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states and into Texas, while a second/weak front shifts southeastward across the Plains through Sunday morning. ...Southeastern Colorado southeastward to the Ozarks and Arklatex... Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer near and south of the remnant surface front is expected across the southern Plains area Saturday, and to a somewhat lesser degree northward into Colorado and Kansas ahead of a weaker/secondary front, which will result in moderate to strong destabilization across a large area. This will result in diurnal development of storms -- across portions of the southeastern Colorado area during the afternoon, and in more limited/uncertain degree southward along a west Texas dryline, where capping will be stronger. Developing storms are expected to quickly intensify given the thermodynamic environment, and with moderately strong westerly mid-level flow persisting atop the area, supercells are expected, accompanied by potential for very large hail and damaging winds. With time, one or more areas of convection will likely grow upscale, with some CAMs suggesting two separate clusters evolving (one moving southeastward out of Colorado and a second across central/northern Texas), while others suggest one larger MCS evolving (across the southern Kansas/Oklahoma area as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies during the evening). In any case, any upscale growth should enhance potential for very strong/damaging winds, given the background kinematic environment. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced at this time, which will likely require refinement as the scenario becomes a bit more clear with time. Risk will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight hours, as the convection propagates eastward/east-southeastward toward southern Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana later in the period. ...Southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia and into much of Florida... A complex scenario is forecast across parts of Southeast Saturday, as ongoing convection is expected across parts of Florida, and perhaps portions of the central Gulf Coast states, near and south of the remnant surface front lying west-to-east across the region. Away from early/ongoing convection and associated cloud cover, diurnal destabilization of the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread convective development, aided by the southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave troughing across the Southeast states. While narrowing down specific corridors of potentially greater severe-weather coverage is difficult at this time, the broadly favorable kinematic environment combined with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer) that will spread across the region in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level troughing suggests risk for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two, with episodic storms/storm clusters across this area through most if not all of the period. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the central Gulf Coast region into much of Florida. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong southern-stream flow will persist across the southern U.S. Saturday, with one trough within this stream to move across the Southeast, and a second to shift out of the Rockies and into the Kansas/Oklahoma area later in the period. Meanwhile in the northern stream, lows are forecast to reside over western Canada and the Northeast U.S. through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain generally in place east-to-west across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states and into Texas, while a second/weak front shifts southeastward across the Plains through Sunday morning. ...Southeastern Colorado southeastward to the Ozarks and Arklatex... Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer near and south of the remnant surface front is expected across the southern Plains area Saturday, and to a somewhat lesser degree northward into Colorado and Kansas ahead of a weaker/secondary front, which will result in moderate to strong destabilization across a large area. This will result in diurnal development of storms -- across portions of the southeastern Colorado area during the afternoon, and in more limited/uncertain degree southward along a west Texas dryline, where capping will be stronger. Developing storms are expected to quickly intensify given the thermodynamic environment, and with moderately strong westerly mid-level flow persisting atop the area, supercells are expected, accompanied by potential for very large hail and damaging winds. With time, one or more areas of convection will likely grow upscale, with some CAMs suggesting two separate clusters evolving (one moving southeastward out of Colorado and a second across central/northern Texas), while others suggest one larger MCS evolving (across the southern Kansas/Oklahoma area as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies during the evening). In any case, any upscale growth should enhance potential for very strong/damaging winds, given the background kinematic environment. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced at this time, which will likely require refinement as the scenario becomes a bit more clear with time. Risk will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight hours, as the convection propagates eastward/east-southeastward toward southern Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana later in the period. ...Southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia and into much of Florida... A complex scenario is forecast across parts of Southeast Saturday, as ongoing convection is expected across parts of Florida, and perhaps portions of the central Gulf Coast states, near and south of the remnant surface front lying west-to-east across the region. Away from early/ongoing convection and associated cloud cover, diurnal destabilization of the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread convective development, aided by the southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave troughing across the Southeast states. While narrowing down specific corridors of potentially greater severe-weather coverage is difficult at this time, the broadly favorable kinematic environment combined with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer) that will spread across the region in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level troughing suggests risk for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two, with episodic storms/storm clusters across this area through most if not all of the period. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/GEORGIA AND MUCH OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern Great Plains Saturday through Saturday night, with additional strong to severe thunderstorms expected from the central Gulf Coast region into much of Florida. ...Synopsis... Moderately strong southern-stream flow will persist across the southern U.S. Saturday, with one trough within this stream to move across the Southeast, and a second to shift out of the Rockies and into the Kansas/Oklahoma area later in the period. Meanwhile in the northern stream, lows are forecast to reside over western Canada and the Northeast U.S. through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain generally in place east-to-west across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states and into Texas, while a second/weak front shifts southeastward across the Plains through Sunday morning. ...Southeastern Colorado southeastward to the Ozarks and Arklatex... Daytime heating of a moist boundary layer near and south of the remnant surface front is expected across the southern Plains area Saturday, and to a somewhat lesser degree northward into Colorado and Kansas ahead of a weaker/secondary front, which will result in moderate to strong destabilization across a large area. This will result in diurnal development of storms -- across portions of the southeastern Colorado area during the afternoon, and in more limited/uncertain degree southward along a west Texas dryline, where capping will be stronger. Developing storms are expected to quickly intensify given the thermodynamic environment, and with moderately strong westerly mid-level flow persisting atop the area, supercells are expected, accompanied by potential for very large hail and damaging winds. With time, one or more areas of convection will likely grow upscale, with some CAMs suggesting two separate clusters evolving (one moving southeastward out of Colorado and a second across central/northern Texas), while others suggest one larger MCS evolving (across the southern Kansas/Oklahoma area as a southwesterly low-level jet intensifies during the evening). In any case, any upscale growth should enhance potential for very strong/damaging winds, given the background kinematic environment. As such, an upgrade to enhanced risk is being introduced at this time, which will likely require refinement as the scenario becomes a bit more clear with time. Risk will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight hours, as the convection propagates eastward/east-southeastward toward southern Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana later in the period. ...Southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia and into much of Florida... A complex scenario is forecast across parts of Southeast Saturday, as ongoing convection is expected across parts of Florida, and perhaps portions of the central Gulf Coast states, near and south of the remnant surface front lying west-to-east across the region. Away from early/ongoing convection and associated cloud cover, diurnal destabilization of the moist boundary layer will support additional/widespread convective development, aided by the southeastward advance of mid-level short-wave troughing across the Southeast states. While narrowing down specific corridors of potentially greater severe-weather coverage is difficult at this time, the broadly favorable kinematic environment combined with moderately strong deep-layer flow (40 to 60 kt in the 850 to 500 mb layer) that will spread across the region in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level troughing suggests risk for hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two, with episodic storms/storm clusters across this area through most if not all of the period. ..Goss.. 06/16/2023 Read more

MD 1082 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 307... FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into western/southern OK and western north TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 307... Valid 152152Z - 152315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues. SUMMARY...Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will remain a threat with multiple supercells. DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells that developed over southwestern OK have matured as they approach Lawton OK. Very large hail up to 2.75" has been reported with one of these cells, and the threat for giant hail (3-4+ inches) will continue with any supercell given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Both of these cells have recently exhibited rightward deviant motion, and are ingesting sufficient low-level helicity to support updraft rotation. Indeed, the leading cell has shown signs of intense low-level rotation in the past 15-20 minutes, and a tornado may occur. Destructive RFD winds may occur as well. Additional intense supercells will likely develop rapidly in the next couple of hours across the eastern TX Panhandle into western north TX along/east of a surface dryline. Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible as these supercells strengthen into western OK and western north TX. A more favored location for tornadoes may exist across west-central into southwestern OK along/near the intersection of the dryline and what appears to be an outflow/instability gradient laid out from the leading pair of supercells. Low-level winds are backed to more easterly across this area, which should locally enhance effective SRH and tornado potential with any sustained supercell. Finally, severe/damaging wind potential will likely increase across the far eastern OK Panhandle into northwestern OK over the next couple of hours. Convection in southwestern KS has grown upscale into an MCS with multiple measured severe wind gusts up to 56 kt. Very large hail and tornadoes will also remain a concern with any embedded supercells, particularly with southward extent where convection may remain semi-discrete. ..Gleason.. 06/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36709939 35399842 34419735 33959720 34029769 33709849 33759957 34260033 34840070 35440097 36690097 36970023 36709939 Read more