Severe Storms

MD 1223 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1223 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232129Z - 232330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of wind damage and marginal hail are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central and southern Florida this afternoon, generally focused along a southwest/northeast-oriented confluence band and sea breeze boundaries. Given continued diurnal destabilization of a moist air mass (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath steeper-than-average midlevel lapse rates, storms could continue to strengthen through the afternoon. And, 30 kt of midlevel flow (sampled by the MLB VWP) could aid in some updraft organization. As storms generally spread northeastward toward the coast, locally damaging gusts and marginal hail could accompany any loosely organized clusters this afternoon. The threat should generally remain localized and marginal. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26928046 26528072 26228109 26348162 27208166 27638169 28268178 28768136 28758070 28158040 27408025 26928046 Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0363 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 363 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 232055Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Eastern New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle West and Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe storms will continue to develop through late afternoon and early evening across the region. These storms will be capable of large hail as well as severe-caliber wind gusts as they progress east-northeastward through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north northeast of Lamar CO to 45 miles south of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361...WW 362... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...eastern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232043Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorm development may intensify further, with at least some potential to consolidate into an increasingly organized cluster posing a risk for large hail and a swath of damaging wind gusts. It is not yet clear that a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate in a corridor near the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into the Lufkin/Huntsville vicinities. This appears to aided by forcing for ascent driven by weak lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, downstream of a significant, but weakening cluster of storms now propagating southeastward into/across the Red River Valley. This is also focused along the eastern periphery of a plume of warm, capping elevated mixed-layer air, which appears to be support CAPE up to 4000 J/kg for boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 70's F+ dew points. Beneath 25-30+ kt northwesterly flow around 500 mb, deep-layer shear appears at least marginally supportive for the evolution of supercell structures, and perhaps an upscale growing organized cluster as inhibition continues to weaken in the peak late afternoon heating. This may not be well handled by the convection allowing model output, and the environment appears at least conditionally supportive of large hail and increasing damaging potential. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33329678 31549466 30479466 30439536 31299591 31579707 32349741 32839712 33329678 Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0362 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 362 TORNADO MT NE WY 232020Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Widely scattered severe storms including supercells are expected to continue to develop, initially across a broad portion of eastern Wyoming this afternoon, before spreading into southeast Montana and the Nebraska Panhandle. Very large hail, severe-caliber wind gusts and tornadoes are all possible within a very moist environment, in the presence of strengthening deep-layer winds through the atmosphere. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles northeast of Sheridan WY to 25 miles east southeast of Cheyenne WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwestern Kansas...the western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...northeastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232007Z - 232230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying supercells and small organizing clusters of storms appear possible by 5-7 PM CDT, if not earlier. DISCUSSION...A seasonably strong belt of west-southwesterly mid-level flow (40-50 kt around 500 mb) has nosed across the southern Rockies through the Raton Mesa vicinity and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of troughing progressing across the eastern Great Basin and southern Rockies. Forcing for ascent associated with the latter feature appears likely to aide ongoing convection now forming across and to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. During the next few hours, it appears that initially high-based thunderstorms will continue to form and advect off the higher terrain, before beginning to intensify near the eastward mixing dryline, northeast through east of the Raton Mesa vicinity into the western Texas Panhandle, as early as 22-00Z. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear and large mixed-layer CAPE (supported by seasonably high moisture content and steep lapse rates), models indicate that the environment will become conducive to a mix of discrete supercells and small upscale growing clusters posing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Although low-level hodographs may remain modest until after dark, it is possible that the strongest discrete storms may also be accompanied by the risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35350277 36320330 37890269 38810347 39530281 38170130 36880149 35720127 34620118 33680183 34390251 35350277 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage, isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two, will be possible from parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley... A cluster of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across the lower-mid MO Valley. An isolated risk for severe gusts may accompany this activity. As a mid-level trough gradually moves east across the north-central states on Saturday, strong westerly flow moving through the base of the trough will feature 50-kt 500mb flow. A front will move eastward into the mid Missouri Valley and encounter surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Considerable uncertainty exists whether the shower/thunderstorm activity Saturday morning will regenerate or new development will focus on the outflow, or if the front will be the focus for afternoon storm development. Regardless, a very moist/unstable airmass will reside across the lower MO Valley northward into IA/southern MN. Supercells capable of all hazards are possible during a relatively confined time window during the afternoon/early evening. A more probable but still uncertain scenario revolves around the timing/placement of upscale growth of an MCS across the central U.S. Damaging gusts are likely this convective cluster and the severe threat may linger well into the evening hours. Further south into the Ozarks, capping will likely limit convective coverage aside from an MCS moving into the region due to warm 700 mb temperatures from +11 to +14 C. However, the kinematic/buoyancy progged by model guidance would suggest at least an isolated risk for severe storms (hail/wind). ...Lower MS Valley... Isolated to scattered diurnal storms are forecast on Saturday. A moisture-rich airmass will destabilize as surface temperatures warm into the lower 90s. Forecast soundings show MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg and PW 1.75-2.00 inches. Strongly veering profiles will result in modest deep-layer shear for multicellular storm organization. Isolated wet microbursts and severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms during the afternoon/early evening before this activity subsides. ...TX... Strong heating on the northern portion of the upper ridge centered over Mexico, will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer on the western fringe of richer low-level moisture across mainly central portions of TX. Isolated afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible and the stronger storms may result in a localized hail/wind risk. ..Smith.. 06/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Minor changes to the ongoing forecast. Elevated conditions are possible in north-central New Mexico where there has been recent large fire activity. See the previous discussion for greater details. ..Wendt.. 06/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will weaken over the Southwest through the forecast period as the shortwave trough of the previous day lifts away to the north and east. However, lingering flow aloft will likely support some enhancement of southwesterly surface winds through the afternoon hours across parts of western/central NM and eastern AZ. Poor overnight humidity recoveries will persist through the day as temperatures soar to 90-100 F through the afternoon. Minimum RH values falling to the single digits (3-7%) across much of western NM and eastern AZ will support very dry surface conditions. The 15-20 mph surface winds and dry air mass, coincident with receptive fuels over western/central NM and portions of AZ, will support several hours of elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AMENDED FOR ENLARGING THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OKLAHOMA ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast mainly this afternoon into the evening across parts of the central and southern High Plains, with a threat of large hail (possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter), severe wind gusts, and a tornado or two. ...Updated Discussion... Confidence has increased in a severe thunderstorm complex moving east-southeastward across western and southwestern OK this evening. Have enlarged the 15-percent and 5-percent severe wind probabilities to account for this. Have also introduced a 15-percent hail probability in southwest OK. ...Previous Discussion... The only changes to the previous convective outlook include the following: 1) Removed 15-percent wind probabilities over eastern NC into far southeast VA due mostly to convective overturning and storm weakening. 2) Added a small 15-percent wind probability over west-central OK and the far eastern part of the TX Panhandle. A long-lived thunderstorm complex will continue to move southeast this afternoon into the eastern TX Panhandle and western OK. The airmass to the southeast is moderately unstable with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Moderate west-northwesterly flow will aid in some storm organization and widely scattered severe gusts are possible with this thunderstorm cluster this afternoon into west-central OK. 3) Reduced wind and tornado probabilities in wake of the south-southwesterly moving outflow boundary over northeast NM and adjacent parts of the TX Panhandle. Relatively cool/stable conditions will likely limit the wind/tornado risk over the northwest part of the TX Panhandle and far northeast NM. ..Smith.. 06/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023/ ...Northeast CO/Southeast WY/Southwest NE... Another active day of strong/severe storms appears likely for portions of the central High Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a band of moderately strong southwesterly flow aloft extending from the southwest states into the central/northern plains. Multiple weak perturbations are embedded in this flow, and will likely promote scattered thunderstorms off the high terrain by early afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture has lessened compared to yesterday, but remains high enough to yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Bulk shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. These storms will spread across northeast CO and southeast WY during the afternoon, with various morning CAM solutions suggesting propagation into southwest NE/northwest KS tonight. ...Southeast CO/Northeast NM/Western TX Panhandle... An ongoing MCS is building southward into the OK/TX Panhandles. The evolution of this system is unclear, but it should result in an outflow boundary that extends westward into NM that aids re-development of storms later today. Supercell storms are expected, capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. There is low confidence regarding the evening/overnight evolution of these storms. While several CAM solutions bring the activity southeastward into central TX overnight, the synoptic-scale low-level jet remains farther west, suggesting that scenario is unlikely or will be primarily non-severe. Therefore will maintain only a broad MRGL risk across much of TX. ...Northeast NC/Southeast VA... A linear MCS will track northeastward across parts of eastern NC and southeast VA today. Skies have cleared ahead of the line, where high dewpoints values will result in an area of moderate CAPE. Given the sufficiently strong low and mid level wind fields, have added a small SLGT for this area. Please see MCD #1205 for further details. Read more

MD 1212 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NM AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1212 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Areas affected...portions of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359... Valid 222201Z - 222330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes continue across WW359. DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing within the upslope flow regime across far northeastern NM and southeastern CO. As storms have matured this afternoon, a few supercell structures have emerged aided by 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Large hail will remain likely with the strongest storms given the supercell mode, elongated mid-level hodographs and moderate buoyancy. As these storms continue eastward, they will cross a remnant outflow boundary from earlier storms. Along and east of the boundary, strongly backed flow in the lowest 1-2km is likely supporting greater low-level shear and some additional ambient vorticity. A locally favorable corridor for a couple of tornadoes may evolve this afternoon/evening. ..Lyons.. 06/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37480480 37610409 37500357 36930303 36180310 35740308 35430341 35290397 35280445 35350469 35440484 35670495 36090512 37480480 Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..06/22/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC071-222240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAS ANIMAS NMC007-021-033-037-047-059-222240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLFAX HARDING MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL UNION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 359 SEVERE TSTM CO NM 221905Z - 230200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon off the mountains, and along a weak boundary moving into the region from the northeast. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Raton NM to 110 miles south southeast of Raton NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0358 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1211 ..WEINMAN..06/22/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-035-039-041-059-069-073-075-087-121-123- 222240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO JEFFERSON LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-222240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-007-015-021-031-222240- Read more

WW 358 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 221815Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 358 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM MDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Central Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Several intense thunderstorms including supercells will affect the watch area through the afternoon and evening, posing a risk of very large hail. A tornado or two may also occur later this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Torrington WY to 40 miles east southeast of Colorado Springs CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 360 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222130Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and south central Oklahoma Extreme northwest Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms, including supercells, will spread east-southeastward through the evening across southwest Oklahoma and adjacent areas of south central Oklahoma and the Red River counties of northwest Texas. Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter are expected through this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Altus OK to 55 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358...WW 359... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO... Minor modification was made to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks to bring the Elevated delineation to the Colorado/New Mexico border. Otherwise, the D2 Fire Outlook is on track with no further changes needed. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will continue to move northeastward through the Four Corners on Friday. This feature will be better timed with afternoon heating. At the surface, a stronger surface response in the High Plains will lead to a deeper lee trough in the central/southern High Plains. ...Southwest... Winds are expected to be stronger on Friday given the timing of the stronger mid-level flow. Winds of 20+ mph will be most likely in parts of eastern Arizona into central New Mexico. Surrounding those areas, 15-20 mph will be more common. By the afternoon, RH will fall to 10-20%. There are signals within guidance that suggest single-digit RH is possible, however. Critical fire weather is expected for parts of western and central New Mexico where fuels are the driest within the region. Fuels in Arizona are either quite sparse or only modestly dry, limiting the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South Dakota late Friday afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest will weaken slightly as it quickly moves northeast into the central Rockies by early evening and near the Black Hills by daybreak Saturday. A persistent mid-level anticyclone will reside across northern Mexico with increasing west-southwest flow overspreading northern portion of the southern High Plains during the day. A broad, very moist boundary layer will extend northward from the southern Great Plains into the north-central High Plains during the day. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast in several clusters from parts of the north-central High Plains and Black Hills vicinity, southward into the southern High Plains. ...WY/MT into SD and NE... Increasing large-scale forcing for ascent will quickly spread northeast across the central Rockies during the day overhead an adequately moist/destabilizing boundary layer. Strong heating will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing by early-mid afternoon initially over western WY and spreading eastward coincident with the leading edge of stronger ascent. Models indicate moderate buoyancy over eastern WY with veering/strengthening flow with height---supporting supercells. Large to very large hail and an isolated risk for a tornado will be the primary hazards with this activity over eastern WY during the late afternoon/early evening. Additional storm development is forecast to occur as storms move into slightly richer moisture near the WY/NE border. It seems plausible upscale growth into a cluster/MCS will occur across NE into southwestern SD during the evening as a southerly LLJ strengthens. This activity will likely weaken late overnight as it moves into eastern portions of SD/NE. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Large-scale forcing for ascent will likely be more subtle across the central and southern High Plains than farther north, but moderate to strong southwesterly flow across the region will still promote afternoon thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the high terrain over the region, as well as along the lee trough. Strong to extreme buoyancy and vertical shear will support supercells capable of very large hail and an isolated risk for a tornado---dependent on mesoscale factors. Some organization/upscale growth into one or more convective lines appears possible, with guidance indicating the most likely location for this organization is across the TX Panhandle. That being said, confidence in storm evolution and duration has limited predictability given the lack of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent. ..Smith.. 06/22/2023 Read more

MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1193 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 212152Z - 212245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A watch is likely to be issued for the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Timing of the peak of severe activity is a bit uncertain, however. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is trying to develop along the Front Range and along outflow in southeastern Colorado. Subtle ascent is evident on water vapor imagery. So far storms have struggled to become rooted. However, the environment is very unstable with 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. 40-50 kts of shear across the terrain and boundary would promote discrete supercell capable of large hail (perhaps to 2 inches) and damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk currently appears low, but there will be some increase in the 850 mb southeasterly winds in the region later this evening. Again, there is some uncertainty with whether this initial activity will mature. With the large amounts of convection in northeast Colorado, there is also concern that activity will build southeastward into the large buoyancy. A watch is likely going to be issued for both possibilities. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/21/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37780468 38050482 39190322 39420278 39210201 38340162 37590196 37160275 37010335 37120390 37780468 Read more