Severe Storms

WW 0326 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 326 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 326 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-009-015-021-025-027-029-035-039-041-047-049-053-059- 063-071-073-077-085-091-093-109-121-129-133-137-141-145-147-149- 151-155-159-161-165-173-175-187-193-172240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS AUDUBON BOONE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAY CRAWFORD DALLAS DECATUR DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT GREENE GUTHRIE HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MADISON MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN PAGE PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SAC SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WEBSTER WOODBURY NEC021-025-043-055-131-153-173-177-172240- NE Read more

WW 326 SEVERE TSTM IA NE 172010Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to form across the watch area. These storms will move slowly northeastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado until sunset. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Spencer IA to 30 miles east southeast of Shenandoah IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324...WW 325... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE TAD TO 25 NNW LIC. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 324 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-061-063-071-073-089-099-172240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0325 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 325 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 325 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC033-057-065-141-172240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTON HARMON JACKSON TILLMAN TXC009-023-045-049-059-075-077-081-083-093-095-101-107-125-133- 143-151-153-155-169-191-197-207-235-237-253-263-269-275-307-333- 345-353-363-399-411-417-429-431-433-441-447-451-485-487-503- 172240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR BRISCOE BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS CLAY COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS EASTLAND ERATH FISHER FLOYD FOARD GARZA HALL HARDEMAN HASKELL IRION JACK JONES KENT Read more

WW 324 SEVERE TSTM CO 171820Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1220 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move off the mountains this afternoon while other isolated supercells form farther east. Very large hail and damaging winds will be possible with this activity. A tornado or two is also possible - mainly in the eastern parts of the watch. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Pueblo CO to 35 miles east northeast of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 325 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 171955Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma West Central Texas Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Intense severe thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of very large hail will eventually also pose a risk of signification wind damage as well. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles east southeast of San Angelo TX to 30 miles northeast of Childress TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 323...WW 324... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0323 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 323 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/17/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 323 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-039-053-061-069-097-099-129-131-172240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON ESCAMBIA GENEVA HOUSTON MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC005-013-029-033-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-091- 113-123-129-131-133-172240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more

WW 323 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA MS CW 171755Z - 180100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon across the watch area. A few supercells are possible, capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS to 60 miles east southeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Areas affected...southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma...portions of the eastern Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 172051Z - 172245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline over the next 1 to 2 hours, with large to very large hail, damaging winds and a couple tornadoes possible. Trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is likely in the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorm development is likely to occur along a dryline that extends through the central Texas Panhandle north across the western OK Panhandle over the next couple of hours, within a moderate-strongly unstable environment and 50-60 kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail will be possible given very steep mid-level lapse rates and considerable CAPE in the -10C to -30C layer, and damaging gusts will also be possible. Some potential will exist for low-level rotation and a tornado or two as low-level hodographs become more favorable towards early evening. With time, storms are likely to merge into an eastward-moving MCS capable of all severe hazards and an increasing risk for significant severe wind gusts. Short-term trends will continue to be monitored and a watch will likely be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 34869874 34750020 34810105 35230128 35710144 36140210 36560278 37100289 37580238 37830191 37860109 37760053 37619996 37259937 36589894 35829864 34869874 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging gusts, large hail, or tornadoes, are possible over a vast area from Colorado to Florida, and central Texas to the lower Missouri Valley. One or more damaging wind swaths may occur across the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley this evening into tonight. ...20Z update... The enhanced risk was expanded southward and eastward to cover much of northern Texas into the lower MS Valley. An elongated west-to-east corridor of strong to potentially extreme instability is becoming established, from parts of western TX into MS, with the latest mesoanalysis showing up to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots, with nearly the entire southern CONUS overspread by strong mid-level flow and associated 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. At least one or more MCSs are expected to develop from upscale-growing supercells and/or multicellular clusters tonight, and rapidly propagate eastward in the aforementioned favorable environment. Some high resolution guidance shows one MCS traversing central/northern OK, with another MCS moving across northern/central TX into the lower MS Valley. Any of the MCSs that organize will have the potential to produce an extensive swath of damaging gusts, and at least a few instances of 65+ kt gusts are possible. Still, details in MCS evolution, from northern OK, to central TX, remains nebulous, and it is unclear which MCS would dominate and have the potential to become long-lived. As such, within the broader Category 3/Enhanced risk area, there may be a gap in severe potential. Similarly, confidence is also too low to introduce Category 4/Moderate Risk probabilities this outlook. Nonetheless, the existence of a widespread area of favorably overlapping strong shear/CAPE poised to experience scattered severe storms with some upscale growth suggests that broader Enhanced-Risk probabilities are warranted. Significant-severe hail probabilities in the Southeast were extended farther west into southern MS to account for the possibility of 2+ inch diameter hail occurring with ongoing supercells in central/southern MS. Here, MRMS mosaic radar data shows MESH cores already approaching 2 inches in spots. The rest of the outlook remains largely on track, with only slight adjustments made to probabilities to reflect the latest observations or guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 06/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ ...Southeast CO to Arkansas... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southwest CO. This feature will cross the Rockies and begin affecting the High Plains this afternoon, promoting scattered thunderstorms off the high terrain and foothills. Initial supercell storms over southeast CO will be in a region of steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE, favorable for large hail. As activity moves/builds eastward into southwest KS, the northern TX Panhandle, and northwest OK, it will encounter high CAPE values and increasingly strong low-level winds. Supercells with very large hail, significant wind damage potential, and a few tornadoes may affect this area during the evening. Upscale growth of this cluster of storms into a fast-moving bowing complex remains likely, with activity moving across northern OK into northwest AR tonight. ...North TX... A 50-60 knot westerly mid-level jet max is accompanying the aforementioned shortwave trough over CO. This wind max will move across the TX Panhandle this evening, with enhanced forcing for ascent affecting the dryline over west TX. This will lead to rapid supercell development in a very moist and unstable environment. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected with the stronger cells. Several CAM solutions favor splitting supercells, with left-movers tracking northeastward toward the Red River through the evening with a continued risk of significant severe. Therefore have extended the ENH risk into these areas. ...MS/AL/FL... Morning model guidance shows a subtle shortwave trough currently over west TN tracking southeastward into AL, with an associated 40-50 knot mid-level wind max moving across MS. Strong daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer ahead of these features should result in scattered severe thunderstorm development by mid afternoon over parts of southeast MS, southern AL, and the FL Panhandle. Given the strength of the deep-layer shear, supercell structures capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. A tornado or two is also possible as the storms approach the coast late this afternoon. Activity should move offshore after dark. ...Western IA... A well-defined remnant MCV is noted this morning over central/eastern NE. Southerly low-level winds ahead of this circulation will maintain near 70F dewpoints over western IA, where strong heating is occurring. This should lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell storms capable of hail and damaging winds. Therefore have added a SLGT risk to this region for this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR EASTERN ARIZONA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO....... Updates to the D2 Fire Weather outlook include the addition of a Critical delineation across far eastern Arizona into southern New Mexico. Winds on Sunday will likely approach Critical thresholds across much of the Elevated region. The Critical area was weighted toward HREF ensemble guidance for conditional probability of Critical fire weather conditions overlapping ERCs within the 90th percentile. The Elevated delineation was extended into the Little Colorado River Valley in northern Arizona where near Critical conditions will be possible. Fuels within this region are around the 75th percentile. ..Thornton.. 06/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a closed upper-level low is forecast to sag southward over the Pacific Northwest while moderate zonal flow aloft prevails over the Southwest. As a result, the surface pattern and airmass will remain largely unchanged from previous days. Daytime heating will promote boundary-layer mixing and deepening, resulting in afternoon RH values falling below 10 percent and sustained afternoon surface winds approaching 20 mph. An area has been delineated over southern Arizona and central/southern New Mexico, where fuels are sufficiently dry for elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from portions of the Ozarks to the central Gulf Coast states. Damaging gusts and large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) will be the main hazard with these storms. A severe gust or two may also occur across eastern Montana. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress across the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley as a second (longer-wave) upper trough deepens across the Interior West tomorrow/Sunday. Low-level warm-air advection will continue to transport ample low-level moisture to a northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone draped across the Lower MS Valley, which will be reinforced by ongoing convection at the start of the period. Overspreading this baroclinic zone and axis of low-level moisture advection will be an elevated mixed layer/steep mid-level lapse rates, which will promote strong buoyancy. The combination of persistent deep-layer ascent, buoyancy, and adequate vertical shear across the Lower MS Valley will support multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, scant buoyancy preceding very strong ascent across portions of eastern Montana may promote strong storm development. ...Lower MS Valley... A complex scenario is expected for the Lower MS Valley region, as multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected, with each round likely influencing the intensity, placement, and timing of subsequent rounds of convection. One or more remnant MCSs from the Day 1 period are expected to be ongoing at the start of the day (12Z Sunday) across the Lower MS Valley, possibly accompanied by severe wind gusts. As this MCS(s) outpace the stronger buoyancy and dissipate near the Gulf Coast, surface heating should occur the Arklatex vicinity as 8+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates overspreads the region. By afternoon, these lapse rates overspreading greater than 80/70 F surface temperatures/dewpoints will yield well over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Strong mid-level flow overspreading the Lower MS Valley will also support elongated hodographs, with over 40 kts of effective bulk shear likely. As such, re-invigoration or redevelopment of convection should occur, with supercells producing large hail the initial mode. Given the steep lapse rates/strong buoyancy and length of the upper-level hodographs, 2+ inch diameter hail is possible. Storms are also likely to grow upscale into the evening hours, with severe gusts likely with any bowing segments that can materialize. Given the uncertainty in placement and timing of earlier rounds of storms, confidence is too low to point out potentially more focused corridors of widespread severe wind potential. ...Florida Peninsula... As remnant outflow boundaries/cold pools continue to surge southward across the Gulf from earlier (Day 1) storms, strong surface heating ahead of these outflow boundaries will serve as the impetus for renewed convective development. By late morning/early afternoon, strong storms should develop amid rich low-level moisture, but mediocre lapse rates (hence tall/thin SBCAPE profiles). Given weak to modest upper flow/shear, the stronger storms should be multicellular in nature, posing a threat for an instance or two of severe wind/hail. ...Central Texas... Limited lift ahead of a surface front will encourage isolated thunderstorm development across central TX by afternoon peak heating. However, surface dewpoints well over 70 F, overspread by 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and strong mid-level flow, will encourage the development of isolated, splitting supercells. Severe wind and hail should accompany any storm that can mature and become sustained. Lower confidence in greater storm coverage/longevity precludes the addition of greater severe probabilities (including significant severe) at this time. ...Eastern Montana... Ahead of the approaching upper trough, steep low-level lapse rates will promote scant (but potentially adequate) buoyancy to support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Efficient downward momentum transport of the stronger flow aloft may encourage a severe gust or two with any of the stronger storms that manage to develop. ..Squitieri.. 06/17/2023 Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN...MEG...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-007-023-025-035-047-053-057-063-065-075-091-097-099-105- 107-119-125-129-131-162340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA FAYETTE GREENE HALE LAMAR MARENGO MOBILE MONROE PERRY PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-113-162340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA MSC007-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-059- 061-067-069-071-073-075-079-081-087-095-097-099-101-103-105-107- 109-111-115-123-129-131-145-153-155-159-161-162340- Read more

WW 320 SEVERE TSTM AL FL MS CW 162150Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Eastern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple discrete, slow supercells should persist across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama, with a cluster of embedded supercells spreading south-southeast from northeast Mississippi. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Oxford MS to 25 miles east southeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 34030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N RZZ TO 50 NNW AVC. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-162340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC009-017-019-033-037-039-045-047-162340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-007-013-025-033-036-041-047-049-053-057-059-061-065-073- 075-081-085-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-115-119-127-131- 133-135-137-145-149-153-159-175-177-179-181-183-193-199-510-550- 570-595-600-610-620-630-650-670-683-685-700-710-730-735-740-760- 800-810-830-162340- VA Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/16/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC011-017-025-039-041-061-063-073-089-099-101-162340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 318 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 161725Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Maryland Central and Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. Cold temperatures aloft will aid in the development of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Patuxent River MD to 30 miles east southeast of South Hill VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

WW 319 SEVERE TSTM CO 161920Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East Central Colorado * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon off the Front Range, and along a surface boundary extending eastward toward western Kansas. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Colorado Springs CO to 35 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 317...WW 318... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

MD 1114 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 319... FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...east-central Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319... Valid 162151Z - 162315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 continues. SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319 over the next couple of hours. Severe hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...A nose of ascent ahead of a midlevel speed max is evident in water vapor imagery across southern Colorado. This has aided in additional thunderstorm initiation across the area over the past hour. These initially discrete storms will pose a threat of large hail and damaging winds as they move into better moisture/instability farther east over the plains. As the number of storms increases across the area and cold pools begin to merge, one or more convective clusters/lines may evolve eastward posing a primary threat of severe wind. ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37730421 37950466 38230505 39070509 39370425 39510296 39510208 39250190 38980175 38490187 38160217 37840291 37730421 Read more

MD 1113 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023 Areas affected...eastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi and western Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 162135Z - 162300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should continue this afternoon/evening with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. Additional storms may move south from northern MS this evening. A new weather watch is likely needed. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the lower MS Valley, afternoon heating and subtle forcing for ascent ahead of a shortwave trough has helped erode inhibition over portions of eastern LA and southern MS. Deepening cumulus and incipient thunderstorms were noted developing across the region. Very moist surface conditions with low to mid 70s F dewpoints and moderate mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km were aiding in the development of large buoyancy 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft is also supportive of an unusually strong wind profiles, with 50-60 kt of effective shear observed on area VWPs. Robust organized updrafts with a predominately supercellular mode are expected to continue to develop this afternoon. Hail, some possibly 2+ in, is likely with supercells, along with the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Hi-res guidance is somewhat uncertain on storm coverage late this afternoon and evening given relatively modest forcing for ascent. However, additional development upstream may allow for some upscale growth with a risk for damaging winds in the evening. Given the favorable parameter space, a new weather watch is being considered for portions of far eastern LA, southern MS and western AL. ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30158820 30248824 30529036 31259060 32329094 33149099 33739002 33648873 33398827 32998785 32288759 31428741 30718760 30608762 30238777 30158820 Read more