Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 9 23:16:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the central Rockies and eject into the Plains states during the Days 3-5/Wednesday-Friday period, supporting the deepening of a surface cyclone over the central High Plains. From Wednesday-Friday, the mid-level trough and surface cyclone will shift eastward toward the MS Valley, with strong, dry westerly surface winds expected in the post-cold front/dryline environment. While fuels are marginally receptive to fire spread overall, fuels appear more locally receptive across portions of central New Mexico, into far western Texas, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. 40 percent critical probabilities have been added Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday for areas that should experience the best overlap of dry/windy surface conditions and relatively more receptive fuels. By late this week through the weekend, surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will overspread much of the central and southern CONUS, limiting significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 10/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous outlook appended below for more forecast details. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-morning surface observations continue to depict cool and dry conditions across a majority of the country. The broad northwest flow regime over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will limit thunderstorm potential and maintain quiescent conditions with the exception of a few regions. Lingering low/mid-level moisture over the Southwest and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster another day of orographically-driven thunderstorms. Weak moisture return into the southern High Plains may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of CO, NM, and the OK/TX Panhandles late this afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing may support a few strong downbursts, but confidence in the potential for severe wind is too limited for probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this evening/later tonight across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies as ascent associated with an approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Across the southern FL Panhandle, a few thunderstorms are possible along/south of a stalled frontal boundary. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm organization with sufficiently deep/mature convection, but as with previous days, forcing for ascent will likely be too weak/nebulous to support a substantial severe threat over land. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 8 22:36:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough is expected to eject into the Atlantic Ocean early this week as a second mid-level trough amplifies over the Interior West and ejects into the Plains states/Mississippi Valley during the mid to late part of the week. As this occurs, strong surface cyclone development is expected across the Plains states, accompanied by ample southerly moisture return. As the trough shunts eastward toward the Appalachian mountains, a surface cold front will sweep across the central U.S., reinforced by high pressure and cooler/dry air. In the immediate post cold front/dryline environment, dry and windy conditions may prevail across the southern High Plains into central Texas during the Days 5-6/Thursday-Friday period. However, given recent rainfall, questions remain regarding how receptive fuels will be for fire spread. As such, the status of the finest (i.e. 1-10 h fuels) will continue to be monitored for drying trends and subsequent need for fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor expansions have been made to the general thunderstorm areas across the Southwest based on visible satellite trends, but the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 10/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cool, dry continental air mass remains in place across much of the CONUS, and will limit the potential for thunderstorms with the exception of a few regions. Over the lower Great Lakes, warm lake water temperatures coupled with cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low will support sufficient buoyancy for a few lightning strikes. Steep lapse rates over the Southwest combined with a modest influx of low to mid-level moisture will support isolated to scattered terrain-driven thunderstorms. Given inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in the lowest 2-3 km, a few strong wind gusts are possible. Across the southern FL Panhandle, weak forcing for ascent along a southward-migrating cold front within a weakly capped environment should support isolated thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm organization, but confidence in storm coverage and residence time over land is fairly low and precludes introducing any severe probabilities. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 7 23:42:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 7 23:42:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the mid-Atlantic/northeast thunder area, otherwise no changes were made with this outlook. ..Bunting.. 10/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected across most of the CONUS today, with only a few small areas of apparent risk for thunderstorms. These include beneath a cold upper low over the Northeast states, and beneath an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms in both regions today. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Broad mid-upper troughing will persist across the eastern United States through the middle of next week. This pattern will favor deep-layer northwesterly flow across much of the Central United States, ushering in cooler, drier conditions. By mid-to-late week another mid-upper-level trough will move through the West and amplify across the Rocky Mountains. Guidance suggests that dry and windy conditions will develop across portions of the West into the southern Plains as the tough amplifies mid-to-late week. However, at this point, fuel moisture should remain high enough that large-scale fire-weather concerns look to be low. This will continued to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 6 21:59:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts may occur this afternoon in southwest Lower Michigan. No changes were made to the previous outlook. A low-end chance of convectively enhanced wind gusts remains over parts of western Lower MI over the next few hours as precipitation associated with the upper vort max shifts east. Modest heating and steepened lapse rates may aid convective gusts. ..Jewell.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Southwest Lower MI... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough over the upper midwest digging into the western Great Lakes. This trough and its associated surface cold front will move across southern Lake Michigan this afternoon during the peak-heating period. Strong heating ahead of the front is leading to steep low-level lapse rates. CAPE values will be weak (less than 500 J/kg). However, given the favorable timing of the system, strong winds aloft, and steep low-level lapse rates, it appears possible that a few strong/severe wind gusts could occur with showers/thunderstorms along the coast of southwest Lower MI. Therefore have added a small MRGL risk area for this scenario. Cold temperatures aloft and ambient vorticity near the upper trough could also result in isolated waterspouts in this area. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Broad upper troughing should persist across the eastern CONUS through early next week, supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley, and overall cooler conditions from the OH Valley eastward. From mid to late next week, another mid-level trough amplifies over the Rockies and ejects into the Plains states, supporting surface cyclone development and a rapid return of low-level moisture from the central/southern Plains into the Southeast. Current medium range guidance consensus suggests that potentially dry and windy conditions may accompany the next amplifying mid-level trough across portions of the Interior West into the southern High Plains mid to late next week. However, fuel receptiveness is not overly robust at the moment, and questions remain whether this will change next week, precluding fire weather highlights this outlook. Dry conditions should persist across the Southeast Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday. However, guidance shows a diffuse surface pressure gradient prior to surface cyclone arrival, resulting in a weak synoptic wind field, keeping wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The primary change made to this outlook was to expand the Elevated area farther northeast into eastern GA and northwestern SC. Here, the latest guidance consensus depicts up to 15 mph sustained northwesterly winds overlapping with 20-30 percent RH for at least a few hours tomorrow afternoon behind the surface cold front. Fuels are also at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. There is some question regarding the robustness of wildfire-spread potential across portions of western into central LA, which has received 1-2 inches of rain within the past 48 hours. Still, the extent of the ongoing drought and rapid drying of finer grasses may still support appreciable fire spread. ..Squitieri.. 10/06/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified large-scale trough will shift slowly eastward from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast, while an expansive surface anticyclone moves southward across the central/southern Plains -- in the wake of a southeastward-moving cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. ...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast... Along the southeastern periphery of the surface anticyclone, an enhanced pressure gradient will favor 10-15 mph sustained northerly surface winds across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. These breezy post-frontal winds, combined with 25 percent minimum RH, will support elevated fire-weather conditions. While rainfall is expected across parts of the area on Day 1/Friday, ongoing severe to exceptional drought and 80th-90th percentile ERCs suggest fuels will still be receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 5 23:20:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Fire weather potential is expected to generally be low through the extended period with the exception of the Southeast region this weekend. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the weekend and into next week. The longwave trough currently over the central CONUS is forecast to shift east over the weekend and slowly deamplify over the Great Lakes through early next week. Upper ridging will remain in place across the western half of the country with a broad northwesterly flow regime across the Plains. This synoptic regime will favor cool, dry conditions east of the Rockies and warm conditions across the Southwest/West Coast. Fuels may undergo drying across the Southeast and Southwest where ensemble guidance shows low probability for substantial precipitation until the middle of next week. ...D3/Saturday - Southeast... Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Southeast states on D3/Saturday as a dry offshore flow regime becomes established behind a cold frontal passage on Friday. While some spread is noted in deterministic solutions, ensemble output hints at widespread gradient winds between 15-20 mph from southern MS to central GA. Additionally, a dry continental air mass advecting into the region should promote RH reductions into the 20s, resulting in areas of elevated (to perhaps locally critical) fire weather conditions. Confidence in such conditions is highest across southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, but may extend into much of AL, GA, and western MS based on a few drier/windier solutions. Recent fuel analyses place ERC values near the 80th to 90th percentile, suggesting fuels should support the fire weather concerns. ...D6/Tuesday and D7/Wednesday - Southwest and Southern High Plains... Most long-range solutions show a low-amplitude upper trough migrating into the Four Corners region by the middle of next week as the upper ridge breaks down. This will promote surface pressure falls across the Four Corners and central/southern High Plains D6/Tuesday into D7/Wednesday. Strengthening low-level flow coupled with antecedent dry conditions may support fire weather concerns on both of these days. However, considerable spread is noted in deterministic solutions regarding the placement and magnitude of the upper wave. Likewise, ensemble guidance shows only a modest signal for critical fire weather conditions despite the generally favorable synoptic regime. This uncertainty, coupled with recent rainfall over the southern High Plains and much of the Rockies, precludes introducing any risk areas. ..Moore.. 10/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms appear unlikely through the remainder of the Day 1 period. An outflow-reinforced boundary continues to push rapidly southward across Deep South TX, near the US/MX border at 20Z. Given the very moist air mass across the region, elevated instability will continue to support scattered storms, but strong to severe gust potential will be reduced as the outflow undercuts the remaining areas of warmer surface air. As such, wind probabilities have been removed for the remainder of the period. Elsewhere, weak/shallow convection over the Upper Great Lakes region in association with cold air beneath the upper trough is forecast to dwindle with the loss of heating later this afternoon, and as cooler/drier air pushes in from the west. ..Jewell.. 10/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023/ ...Deep South TX... Convection has largely moved offshore this morning, but a slow-moving, small cluster persists over a portion of the Brush Country along a composite outflow-enhanced cold front moving south. Very rich western Gulf moisture characterized by 75-80 F surface dew points remains prevalent ahead of the front with ample insolation. This may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity and coverage for a few hours centered on mid to late afternoon. While the combination of deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will remain modest, there will be potential for 45-60 mph gusts in a couple multicell clusters approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Read more