Severe Storms

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 26 01:39:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 26 01:39:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated potential for damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado may continue until the mid evening across parts of central into north Texas. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows the mid- to upper-level trough over the southern High Plains, and it will continue east-northeast into the central/southern Plains later tonight. A moist/warm conveyor belt will continue to extend from TX north-northeast into the mid MS Valley through tonight. A north-northeast to south-southwest oriented band of convection will slowly shift east across eastern OK and the I-35 corridor in TX tonight. A moist/adequately unstable airmass will support thunderstorm development through the evening despite gradually waning instability. It seems some lingering potential for a damaging gust/brief tornado may continue into the mid evening, mainly across central into north TX, before storm intensity diminishes by late evening. ..Smith.. 10/26/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 25 03:14:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2261 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Areas affected...west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250311Z - 250545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Some hail and locally strong wind gusts may accompany an evolving squall line spreading east of the New Mexico/Texas state border, and northeast/east of the Pecos valley through 1-2 AM CDT. It still appears that a severe weather watch will not be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually grown upscale into an evolving squall line, generally focused on the leading edge of lower/mid-tropospheric cooling slowly advancing toward the Texas South Plains/Pecos Valley vicinity. Modest strengthening of ambient southerly low-level flow (including to 30+ kt around 850 mb) is contributing to strengthening easterly/southeasterly inflow of more moist air advecting into the high plains. Beneath a remnant plume of steeper lapse rates, associated instability probably will maintain, or perhaps support some further intensification of, the squall line late this evening into the overnight hours. As this occurs, it is possible that channels of strengthening rear inflow may continue to develop, accompanied by potential for occasional locally strong wind gusts reaching the surface. However, based on the output convection allowing guidance, including the HRRR, and latest RAP/NAM forecast soundings, it still appears that peak gusts will remain mostly below severe limits. ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34510238 34290074 32200141 30800300 31540341 32930273 34510238 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe wind gusts and hail, will continue to be possible this evening over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northwestern Mexico with a plume of mid-level moisture located in southwesterly flow over the southern Rockies. Thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume from eastern Arizona eastward into west Texas, where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range across much of west-central Texas. As the storms continue to interact with the northwestern edge of the moderately unstable airmass, the instability combined with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, will be likely be sufficient for an isolated severe threat. Hail, along with a few marginally severe wind gusts, will be possible with the stronger cores over the next few hours. ..Broyles.. 10/25/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 24 02:32:02 UTC 2023.

MD 2256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Areas affected...Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 240227Z - 240530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Elevated supercells may develop in the next 2-3 hours. These storms will be capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Subtle signs of lift are evident in parts of west-central/northwest Iowa on IR satellite imagery. The KOAX VAD is showing the low-level jet at around 40 kts already this evening. This is expected to increase into the overnight. Lift along a warm front will eventually support potentially scattered elevated thunderstorm development within the next 2-3 hours. The 00Z observed OAX sounding showed very steep mid-level lapse rates. Though more muted, these lapse rates also extend into Iowa/Minnesota per this evenings DVN/MPX soundings. Mid/upper-level winds are strong enough to support long hodographs and 35-40 kt of effective shear. The strongest storms will be supercellular and capable of large hail (1.5-2 in.). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and a watch is possible this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44049223 43919483 43719570 43149635 42389651 41989635 41909551 42159468 42589272 43019151 43539134 43859145 44049223 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered large hail will be possible late this evening into the overnight across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and eastward into Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A split flow upper-air pattern is forecast tonight over the western half of the Lower 48 states. Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a large-scale trough rotating across southern CA and Baja California. In the low levels, a warm front will advance north across portions of the Midwest as an elongated warm air conveyor belt extends from the southern Great Plains arcing north-northeast into the Great Lakes. ...IA/MN/WI... Latest surface observations show the northern periphery of richer moisture has moved into western IA/eastern NE. The 00z Omaha raob featured 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and moderate buoyancy. The LLJ is forecast to intensify this evening and focus large-scale ascent mainly in the form of isentropic ascent/warm-air advection in the vicinity of the warm front. Recent time-lagged HRRR model runs indicate isolated to scattered storms developing farther west and near the MO River by late this evening. This activity seems to favor a west-east corridor across northern IA and perhaps far southern MN. Given the favorable lapse rates and deep-layer shear profiles supporting the potential for updraft rotation, have introduced a small 15-percent hail probability (Slight Risk). ...Rio Grande/western part of the Edwards Plateau... The 00z Del Rio raob showed relatively weak lapse rates above the boundary layer, indicative of moisture via decayed TC remnants. Despite the lack of lightning and weak updraft development through early evening, a low probability for a strong updraft could materialize later tonight across this region as southerly 850-mb flow strengthens. However, it seems the risk for severe will be limited by overall weak buoyancy/lapse rates. ..Smith.. 10/24/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northern CA. This feature will move southeast along the CA/NV border by early Monday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this upper-level feature. Farther east, a strengthening central Great Plains LLJ will focus a zone of low-level warm-air advection from eastern KS into IA. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight within the aforementioned corridor. Surface high pressure centered over the Upper OH Valley and encompassing much of the East will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 10/23/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 22 02:26:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will not occur through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving east across southern ID/northern UT and downstream of a larger trough over the eastern Pacific. A few thunderstorms have been observed this evening in association with weak buoyancy/appreciable ascent with the ID/UT disturbance. This activity may linger for a couple of more hours before the zone of stronger ascent moves east into a more dry environment farther east in WY. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions reside over much of the Lower 48 states owing to building surface high pressure over the north-central U.S. and a departing mid-level shortwave trough over New England. ..Smith.. 10/22/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 20 02:00:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 20 02:00:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2023 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Scattered thunderstorm development has been increasing in a general corridor near/southwest of Louisville KY into areas around the Nashville TN vicinity. This is in the wake of an initial mid-level perturbation shifting from the lower Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes, and ahead of another strengthening impulse forecast to continue digging southeast of the Upper Midwest through the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by late tonight. Aided by a narrow corridor of modest low-level moistening, within a zone of enhanced low-level warm advection, it appears that ongoing activity may slowly spread eastward across portions of central Kentucky and middle Tennessee through 03-05Z before diminishing. Overnight, additional thunderstorm development is possible as forcing for ascent refocuses southeastward into the southern Appalachians vicinity. Despite the presence of at least modest shear, it still appears that thermodynamic profiles characterized by only modest steepening of lapse rates, coupled with the limited moisture return, will minimize the risk for severe hail and/or wind. ..Kerr.. 10/20/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 19 02:19:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 19 02:19:01 UTC 2023.