Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... After trending more zonal, or least less amplified, late this week through next weekend, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that there may be substantive amplification within the westerlies across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Seaboard during the early portion of next week. It appears that this may include the evolution of a significant, progressive short wave trough to the east of the Rockies, downstream of larger-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast through Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. Initially digging across the central Great Plains by early next Monday, significant surface cyclogenesis now appears possible across the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley as the trough amplifies east-southeastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone may deepen further while redeveloping to the east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front surging across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Given this potential synoptic forcing, an associated risk for severe thunderstorm development might not be completely negligible. However, in the wake of the significant preceding cold intrusion, guidance still suggests that surface ridging may be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region into late Sunday or early Monday. It appears that this may preclude a substantive return flow of moisture prior to the onset of cyclogenesis. And modest to weak boundary-layer moistening/deepening within the warm sector may remain problematic with regard to destabilization as it evolves across the central through eastern U.S. At this time, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent for next Monday-Tuesday, but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... After trending more zonal, or least less amplified, late this week through next weekend, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that there may be substantive amplification within the westerlies across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Seaboard during the early portion of next week. It appears that this may include the evolution of a significant, progressive short wave trough to the east of the Rockies, downstream of larger-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast through Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. Initially digging across the central Great Plains by early next Monday, significant surface cyclogenesis now appears possible across the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley as the trough amplifies east-southeastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone may deepen further while redeveloping to the east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front surging across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Given this potential synoptic forcing, an associated risk for severe thunderstorm development might not be completely negligible. However, in the wake of the significant preceding cold intrusion, guidance still suggests that surface ridging may be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region into late Sunday or early Monday. It appears that this may preclude a substantive return flow of moisture prior to the onset of cyclogenesis. And modest to weak boundary-layer moistening/deepening within the warm sector may remain problematic with regard to destabilization as it evolves across the central through eastern U.S. At this time, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent for next Monday-Tuesday, but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... After trending more zonal, or least less amplified, late this week through next weekend, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that there may be substantive amplification within the westerlies across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Seaboard during the early portion of next week. It appears that this may include the evolution of a significant, progressive short wave trough to the east of the Rockies, downstream of larger-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast through Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. Initially digging across the central Great Plains by early next Monday, significant surface cyclogenesis now appears possible across the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley as the trough amplifies east-southeastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone may deepen further while redeveloping to the east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front surging across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Given this potential synoptic forcing, an associated risk for severe thunderstorm development might not be completely negligible. However, in the wake of the significant preceding cold intrusion, guidance still suggests that surface ridging may be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region into late Sunday or early Monday. It appears that this may preclude a substantive return flow of moisture prior to the onset of cyclogenesis. And modest to weak boundary-layer moistening/deepening within the warm sector may remain problematic with regard to destabilization as it evolves across the central through eastern U.S. At this time, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent for next Monday-Tuesday, but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... After trending more zonal, or least less amplified, late this week through next weekend, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that there may be substantive amplification within the westerlies across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Seaboard during the early portion of next week. It appears that this may include the evolution of a significant, progressive short wave trough to the east of the Rockies, downstream of larger-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast through Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. Initially digging across the central Great Plains by early next Monday, significant surface cyclogenesis now appears possible across the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley as the trough amplifies east-southeastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone may deepen further while redeveloping to the east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front surging across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Given this potential synoptic forcing, an associated risk for severe thunderstorm development might not be completely negligible. However, in the wake of the significant preceding cold intrusion, guidance still suggests that surface ridging may be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region into late Sunday or early Monday. It appears that this may preclude a substantive return flow of moisture prior to the onset of cyclogenesis. And modest to weak boundary-layer moistening/deepening within the warm sector may remain problematic with regard to destabilization as it evolves across the central through eastern U.S. At this time, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent for next Monday-Tuesday, but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... After trending more zonal, or least less amplified, late this week through next weekend, the latest medium-range guidance suggests that there may be substantive amplification within the westerlies across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Atlantic Seaboard during the early portion of next week. It appears that this may include the evolution of a significant, progressive short wave trough to the east of the Rockies, downstream of larger-scale mid-level ridging building across the Pacific coast through Rockies and adjacent Great Plains. Initially digging across the central Great Plains by early next Monday, significant surface cyclogenesis now appears possible across the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley as the trough amplifies east-southeastward across the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The cyclone may deepen further while redeveloping to the east of the Allegheny Mountains through the northern Mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday, with a trailing cold front surging across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Given this potential synoptic forcing, an associated risk for severe thunderstorm development might not be completely negligible. However, in the wake of the significant preceding cold intrusion, guidance still suggests that surface ridging may be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast region into late Sunday or early Monday. It appears that this may preclude a substantive return flow of moisture prior to the onset of cyclogenesis. And modest to weak boundary-layer moistening/deepening within the warm sector may remain problematic with regard to destabilization as it evolves across the central through eastern U.S. At this time, severe probabilities still appear less than 15 percent for next Monday-Tuesday, but it is possible that this could change in later outlooks for this period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A surface anticyclone will track toward the East Coast as a mid-level trough ejects in the Atlantic tomorrow/Wednesday. North-northeasterly surface flow to the south of the anticyclone will promote dry, breezy conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast, which is experiencing a severe to extreme drought. As such, locally stressed vegetation may support some wildfire-spread potential amid 20-30 percent RH and 10+ mph sustained northerly surface winds, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. Elevated meteorological surface conditions may also develop across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear marginal at best for wildfire-spread potential, with fire weather highlights withheld for now. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface anticyclone will traverse the central and eastern CONUS today, supporting the southeastward surge of cooler, drier air across the Southeast. Here, RH may dip below 30 percent in the post-cold-frontal airmass, with 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds supporting Elevated meteorological conditions across portions of central Louisiana into central Mississippi and Alabama. The eastern shunt of the surface anticyclone will relax the pressure gradient across southern California. While dry offshore flow will persist into the morning hours (hence the Elevated highlights), offshore wind speeds should subside with time, tempering the wildfire-spread threat later in the day. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface anticyclone will traverse the central and eastern CONUS today, supporting the southeastward surge of cooler, drier air across the Southeast. Here, RH may dip below 30 percent in the post-cold-frontal airmass, with 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds supporting Elevated meteorological conditions across portions of central Louisiana into central Mississippi and Alabama. The eastern shunt of the surface anticyclone will relax the pressure gradient across southern California. While dry offshore flow will persist into the morning hours (hence the Elevated highlights), offshore wind speeds should subside with time, tempering the wildfire-spread threat later in the day. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface anticyclone will traverse the central and eastern CONUS today, supporting the southeastward surge of cooler, drier air across the Southeast. Here, RH may dip below 30 percent in the post-cold-frontal airmass, with 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds supporting Elevated meteorological conditions across portions of central Louisiana into central Mississippi and Alabama. The eastern shunt of the surface anticyclone will relax the pressure gradient across southern California. While dry offshore flow will persist into the morning hours (hence the Elevated highlights), offshore wind speeds should subside with time, tempering the wildfire-spread threat later in the day. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and accompanying surface anticyclone will traverse the central and eastern CONUS today, supporting the southeastward surge of cooler, drier air across the Southeast. Here, RH may dip below 30 percent in the post-cold-frontal airmass, with 10-15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds supporting Elevated meteorological conditions across portions of central Louisiana into central Mississippi and Alabama. The eastern shunt of the surface anticyclone will relax the pressure gradient across southern California. While dry offshore flow will persist into the morning hours (hence the Elevated highlights), offshore wind speeds should subside with time, tempering the wildfire-spread threat later in the day. ..Squitieri.. 10/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... An initially notable short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, appears likely to continue inland during this period. Considerable weakening of this perturbation and its associated occluding surface cyclone/ trailing front are forecast, as it progresses through lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging. Models indicate little appreciable destabilization, minimizing the risk for thunderstorm activity. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... An initially notable short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, appears likely to continue inland during this period. Considerable weakening of this perturbation and its associated occluding surface cyclone/ trailing front are forecast, as it progresses through lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging. Models indicate little appreciable destabilization, minimizing the risk for thunderstorm activity. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... An initially notable short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, appears likely to continue inland during this period. Considerable weakening of this perturbation and its associated occluding surface cyclone/ trailing front are forecast, as it progresses through lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging. Models indicate little appreciable destabilization, minimizing the risk for thunderstorm activity. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... An initially notable short wave trough, approaching the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z Thursday, appears likely to continue inland during this period. Considerable weakening of this perturbation and its associated occluding surface cyclone/ trailing front are forecast, as it progresses through lingering larger-scale mid-level ridging. Models indicate little appreciable destabilization, minimizing the risk for thunderstorm activity. East of the Rockies, although temperatures may begin to moderate, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Southeast into the northwestern Atlantic. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the sheared remnants of an initially vigorous short wave impulse of Arctic origins will be in the process of accelerating east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Wednesday, before progressing across the northern Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon and evening. In the wake of this perturbation, broadly confluent, cyclonic mid-level flow is forecast to linger across much of the nation east of the Rockies. Beneath this regime, cold surface ridging likely will build east-northeastward across much of the Northeast, while being maintained along an axis across the northwestern Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity. A notable short wave trough may approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast by late Wednesday night, further suppressing large-scale mid-level ridging lingering across the North American Pacific coast vicinity. This feature may be preceded by a fairly extensive precipitation shield with embedded convection, along an associated occluding surface cyclone and trailing frontal zone. However, while forecast soundings inland of coastal areas depict layers of weak elevated instability, relatively warm layers/weak lapse rates farther aloft seem likely to minimize the potential for more than isolated/sparse lightning strikes. The forecast mid-level cold core appears rather modest, and is likely to remain offshore through this period. ..Kerr.. 10/31/2023 Read more