Severe Storms

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 24 22:30:18 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies, a trough and attendant cold front will bring widespread rainfall across much of the region with cooler temperatures and increasing relative humidity D2 - Monday into D3 - Tuesday. This will temper the fire weather concerns across these regions in the coming days. Pockets of dry and breezy conditions will remain possible for D3 - Tuesday through D5 - Wednesday across the desert southwest, however fuels are largely not receptive to fire spread due to recent rainfall. The general pattern through the end of the week will continue to include troughing across the western US with building high pressure across the central and eastern US. Long range models disagree on the exact amplitude of the western trough, with some indications of a more progressive open wave or slow moving cut off low. Ensembles guidance from the EPS and GEFS lean towards deeper trough and potential cut off low scenario. In either scenario, increasing flow across the western US will likely bring corridors of at least Elevated fire weather concerns. Uncertainty on exactly where dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels and potential for wetting rainfall lead to low confidence in including any probabilities at this time. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0695 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 695 SEVERE TSTM TX 242150Z - 250400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North and central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 450 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form this afternoon into this evening from north into central Texas, and storms will subsequently move southeastward into early tonight. Supercells with isolated very large hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter will be possible across north Texas along with damaging outflow gusts up to 70 mph. Damaging winds will also be possible into central Texas with storm clusters. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Dallas TX to 40 miles west of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and damaging gusts are expected later this afternoon and evening across central/northeast Texas and possibly far southern Oklahoma and the Arklatex vicinity. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the severe probabilities. Supercell development remains possible later this afternoon into this evening from central TX into the ArkLaTex region, with some clustering of storms possible tonight. Very large hail and severe/damaging gusts will be the primary threats. The greatest relative threat may become centered over northeast TX, to the east of a surface low. Some enhancement to low-level shear/SRH in this region may support the threat of a tornado as well. See the previous discussion below and MCD 2192 for more information. ..Dean.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Central Texas to southeast Oklahoma/ArkLaTex... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, potentially very large (2+ inch in some cases), and damaging winds are expected mainly late this afternoon and much of the evening especially across parts of central to north/northeast Texas, and possibly nearby parts of southern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Water vapor imagery continues to feature an eastward-moving low-amplitude shortwave trough and mid-level speed max over the southern High Plains late this morning, with these features expected to reach the region (north Texas/ArkLaTex) by late afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a northeast/southwest-oriented front will settle southward across the region, with augmenting outflow/differential heating influences across the ArkLaTex. Ample warm-sector heating is anticipated under cloud-free skies early today, where plentiful upper 60s to middle 70s F surface dewpoints currently reside. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development is expected as early as late afternoon near the front/surface low and possibly also influenced by aforementioned residual outflow/differential heating and pre-frontal convergence. Upwards of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of moderate-caliber effective shear (generally 30-40 kt effective) will support some initial supercells cable of large hail, with some potentially significant in excess of 2 inches in diameter. A low-probability tornado risk may also exist in areas such as northeast Texas, where 1-3 km AGL winds will be a bit stronger to the east of the surface wave across north Texas. Storms are likely to cluster/grow upscale across the warm sector this evening, with damaging winds and some hail risk continuing, while other storms may develop tonight as far north as far southern Oklahoma/north Texas and ArkLaTex as a low-level jet and related warm advection increase. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON...SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA... A couple of changes were made to the Day 2 Fire Weather outlook in line with trends and coordination with local partners. The Elevated region was expanded to include more of southwestern Idaho and east-central Oregon. A Critical region was introduced across southeastern Oregon into far northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, southwestern Idaho. Recent trends indicate a slower progression of the cold front on Monday, which will delay higher humidity and precipitation into areas east of the Cascade Range. Strong winds and relative humidity reductions into the single digits to teens continues to appear likely. Information from local partners indicates fuels are receptive to spread within these regions. Fuels will be prone to further drying with more extended Critical meteorological conditions now expected on Monday. ..Thornton.. 09/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely Monday afternoon across portions of the northwestern Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest. Short- to medium-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in the eastward progression of the strong low over the northeast Pacific towards the Pacific Northwest over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, stronger low- to mid-level winds will overspread northern CA into the western Great Basin, with most precipitation remaining confined to the windward side of the northern Sierra Nevada and Cascades. The combination of antecedent dry conditions, with some downslope warming/drying within the south/southwesterly flow regime, should support widespread RH reductions into the teens and low 20s. Drier and windier solutions - most notably the 00z HRRR - hint at RH reductions into the single digits with sustained winds closer to 30 mph, although it is somewhat unclear how the HRRR's recent dry bias across the Great Basin is influencing Monday's forecast. Regardless, a strong consensus among ensemble members for elevated to critical conditions gives high confidence in the meteorological forecast. Fuels across the region are currently not overly receptive with seasonally normal ERCs; however, some drying/curing of fine fuels is likely by Monday given the warm, dry, and breezy conditions expected over the next 24 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0693 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 232235Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 535 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected this evening across southeast Kansas and ongoing storms will move east-southeastward toward southwest Missouri. The storm environment initially favors supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail near 2.5 inches in diameter, and possibly a tornado or two. Some clustering/upscale growth will lead to an increase in the potential for damaging gusts to 70 mph by late evening/early tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Joplin MO to 50 miles south of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691...WW 692... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 692 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 692 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC001-021-027-035-037-041-061-063-071-077-079-081-083-087-091- 097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-131-133-135- 143-145-147-232340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES KAY LATIMER LE FLORE LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE PITTSBURG POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM OK 232105Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, an isolated supercell may continue to pose a large hail risk across eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, while additional and more numerous storms will likely develop by early evening across northern/central Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northeast of Bartlesville OK to 25 miles west of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690...WW 691... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0691 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 691 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 691 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-009-013-015-017-023-025-027-029-033-037-049-063-067-069- 073-075-077-079-081-083-091-099-109-121-123-125-127-147-151-153- 157-161-169-171-181-187-189-195-197-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR AUDUBON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUTLER CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW DALLAS EMMET FLOYD FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN HUMBOLDT JASPER KOSSUTH MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POLK POWESHIEK SAC STORY TAMA WARREN WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 691 SEVERE TSTM IA 231835Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Iowa * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, a cluster of storms across north-central Iowa may produce large hail and/or locally damaging winds. Additional storms are expected to across the region later this afternoon into evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Mason City IA to 25 miles south of Des Moines IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 690... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0690 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 690 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..09/23/23 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 690 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-103-107-121-209-232340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN MIAMI WYANDOTTE MOC013-015-025-033-037-041-047-053-061-083-089-095-101-107-115- 117-141-159-165-177-185-195-232340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY COOPER DAVIESS HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON MORGAN PETTIS PLATTE RAY ST. CLAIR SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

WW 690 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 231800Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western and Central Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and locally damaging winds this afternoon, with a secondary round of storms expected across the region later this afternoon into evening, which will likely include additional storm development to the west of the early afternoon storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles northeast of Chillicothe MO to 55 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2187 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa and far northwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232158Z - 240000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms across southeast Nebraska will likely intensify over the coming hours, and will pose a risk for large hail and severe wind. Watch issuance may be needed to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Over the past 30-60 minutes, a cluster of cumulus has shown steady deepening on the intersection of the cold front and a subtle surface trough. A few deeper towers are noted in IR and low-level water-vapor imagery, which suggests convective initiation is probable within the next hour or so. 50-60 knot winds between 6-8 km AGL is supporting elongated hodographs with effective bulk shear values between 40-50 knots. This kinematic environment should support organized convection, including the potential for splitting supercells (though the propensity for splitting cells is somewhat uncertain given strong ascent along the front, which may foster somewhat quick upscale growth). The thermodynamic environment immediately downstream is becoming increasingly supportive for robust convection as surface temperatures warm into the upper 70s; however, cooler temperatures further east into southern IA/northern MO in the wake of prior convection cast some uncertainty onto the downstream intensity. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to increase in the coming hours across southeast NE into adjacent areas of IA and MO, and watch issuance is probable. ..Moore/Thompson.. 09/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39999703 40469708 40859715 41009717 41989565 41979514 41689476 41019438 40309443 39939501 39779624 39759669 39999703 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0407 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A deepening trough across the western US will result in amplification of an eastward shifting ridge across the central/eastern US early next week. Cooler conditions, increasing relative humidity, and potential for widespread wetting rainfall is expected across much of the Pacific Northwest. Windy and dry conditions will be possible across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, where little to no rainfall is expected. Beyond mid-week, breezy conditions may continue as persistent troughing brings waves of stronger mid-level flow across the west. ...Great Basin/Northern Rockies... An increase in south to southwest winds is expected for D3 - Monday across the Great Basin in response to increasing mid-level flow overspreading the region. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across northern Nevada, southeastward Oregon, and southwestern Idaho. Marginal fuels within this region will preclude the need to include Critical probabilities, though Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as further drying of fuels occurs with forecast strong winds. Lingering dry conditions will be possible on D4 - Tuesday, but winds will be much lighter mitigating the fire weather risk. For the extended period, models suggest continued troughing across the west will bring cool and wet conditions across the Pacific Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Further drying will be likely across the southwest, with potential for breezy conditions. Overall, confidence is low in where any dry/breezy conditions will overlap receptive fuels along with potential for wetting rainfall. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Large to very large hail, wind damage and a few tornadoes remain possible today across parts of the Upper Midwest, Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Plains. A tornado or two may also occur in parts of the coastal Mid-Atlantic. ...20Z Update... The main change made to this outlook was to trim southern portions of severe probabilities across the Mid Atlantic in tandem with the passage of Ophelia. Some uncertainty remains pertaining to the details of convective evolution across portions of the Upper Midwest, hence no changes have been made to the outlook. Though storms have reduced instability some across the MS Valley, enough heating is underway which could modify the airmass enough to support a few additional strong to severe storms. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track, with additional supercells likely to develop across southeastern KS into eastern OK and western MO with a threat for severe gusts and very large hail. A few tornadoes also remain possible, especially over far eastern SD into southern MN, where backed low-level flow supports enlarged hodographs. ..Squitieri.. 09/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ ...Upper Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley/Southern Plains... A cluster of storms with history of periodic large hail/severe-caliber wind gusts this morning across eastern Nebraska persists into western Iowa at midday, while generally trending downscale and a bit weaker. These storms seem likely to outpace the primary reservoir of buoyancy with greater early-day inhibition with eastward extent, but some short-term severe risk may nonetheless continue. This convection casts some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of more appreciable surface-based destabilization later today, but strong/potentially severe thunderstorm redevelopment is still expected later this afternoon near the surface wind shift/occluded front. This would primarily be the case beginning around mid/late afternoon, coincident with the approach of the upper vort/speed max over South Dakota/northern Nebraska/northwest Iowa vicinity. At least a modest corridor of severe-conducive instability may materialize especially across northwest Missouri/west-central Iowa and southwest/south-central Minnesota. Supercell-favorable hodographs will reside across much of the region, with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes, particularly if more cloud breaks/destabilization occurs in proximity to the surface low/triple point. Farther south, another corridor of persistent convection since mid-morning has been across far eastern Kansas into northwest/western Missouri. These storms have occasionally produced severe hail, and this may continue for a time this afternoon even as warm advection/850 mb convergence weakens. The primary scenario is otherwise expected to near-frontal deep convective development late this afternoon into evening, with a moderate to strongly unstable environment, particularly to the southwest of the eastern Kansas/northwest Missouri early day storms. Steep lapse rates/ample buoyancy and enlarged hodographs will support initial supercell potential, capable of very large/damaging hail, severe wind gusts and possibly some tornado risk, with storms tending to grow upscale during the evening. CAPE will lessen somewhat with southwestward extent into north-central/northwest Texas where greater boundary-layer mixing and lesser dewpoints will be found, but with greater DCAPE and downdraft-acceleration potential in support of local wind threat. ...Mid-Atlantic States/Tidewater... Currently centered over northeast North Carolina, Tropical Storm Ophelia is expected to continue to weaken as it generally moves north-northeastward through tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for latest details. Even while the system will gradually weaken, some tornado risk will focus along coastal areas of southeast Virginia toward the Delmarva today, and possibly eventually as far north as New Jersey. Any such potential is expected to generally relate to convection that can deepen/sustain and pivot toward the coast, especially if it interacts with the warm front where low-level/deep-layer shear will be maximized with surface-rooted buoyancy. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Sunday. The upper wave currently over WY is forecast to deamplify as it shifts east/northeast into the Great Lakes region. In its wake, upper ridging will become established over the central CONUS, resulting in a muted surface pressure regime with generally weak winds. Two exceptions will be the northern Plains and across the western Great Basin. Over the Dakotas, 15-20 mph gradient winds in the vicinity of the weakening surface low are likely, but cool, post-frontal temperatures will limit RH reductions. Across the western Great Basin, a deepening surface low over the northeast Pacific, juxtaposed with a building surface high over the central Rockies, will strengthen low to mid-level flow. 15-25 mph downslope winds are possible in the lee of the Sierra Nevada, and may overlap with areas of 20-25% RH; however, latest fuel analyses indicate fuels are currently not receptive across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 ..MOORE..09/22/23 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-069-105-123-157-161-165-222340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC033-047-102-222340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER OGLALA LAKOTA WYC005-009-011-015-027-045-222340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176 ..MOORE..09/22/23 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-069-105-123-157-161-165-222340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC033-047-102-222340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER OGLALA LAKOTA WYC005-009-011-015-027-045-222340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more