Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but thermodynamic profiles along the coast appear unfavorable for convection deep enough to produce lightning. Surface high pressure with dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential will continue to dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but thermodynamic profiles along the coast appear unfavorable for convection deep enough to produce lightning. Surface high pressure with dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential will continue to dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but thermodynamic profiles along the coast appear unfavorable for convection deep enough to produce lightning. Surface high pressure with dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential will continue to dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough will move quickly eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Thursday, but thermodynamic profiles along the coast appear unfavorable for convection deep enough to produce lightning. Surface high pressure with dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential will continue to dominate much of the central/eastern CONUS. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... No changes will be made to the currently valid forecast. Offshore flow being observed this morning is forecast to slowly weaken through the day. However, unusually dry conditions will briefly overlap with the gusty winds supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns across the Gulf Coast and southeast states. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... No changes will be made to the currently valid forecast. Offshore flow being observed this morning is forecast to slowly weaken through the day. However, unusually dry conditions will briefly overlap with the gusty winds supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns across the Gulf Coast and southeast states. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... No changes will be made to the currently valid forecast. Offshore flow being observed this morning is forecast to slowly weaken through the day. However, unusually dry conditions will briefly overlap with the gusty winds supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns across the Gulf Coast and southeast states. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... No changes will be made to the currently valid forecast. Offshore flow being observed this morning is forecast to slowly weaken through the day. However, unusually dry conditions will briefly overlap with the gusty winds supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather concerns across the Gulf Coast and southeast states. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures will drift eastward from the Plains States to the Eastern Seaboard in tandem with an upper trough that is poised to eject into the Atlantic today. Dry northerly flow will persist across the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast, overspreading drought-stricken fuels that have received minimal rainfall over the last few weeks. Elevated highlights remain in place since RH should drop below 30 percent by afternoon peak heating, with winds potentially gusting over 15 mph. Dry and breezy downslope flow may also occur across portions of northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle. However, fuels appear to be too marginal in receptiveness to warrant fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more