Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z To start the extended forecast period, weak mid-level ridging across the Southwestern US will shift eastward and weaken as the overall upper-air pattern trends more zonal. Westerly flow aloft is forecast to strengthen late this weekend continuing through midweek next week. With strong westerlies likely, lee troughing will support gusty surface winds and generally dry conditions over parts of the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. However, fuel availability and the resultant fire-weather concerns remain highly uncertain. ..Southwest and Southern High Plains... As the upper-level pattern gradually becomes more zonal this weekend, strong flow aloft will migrate south and strengthen over parts of the southwest and southern/central Rockies. Westerly downslope flow will aid in the development of a lee trough, bolstering westerly surface winds near the higher terrain and across the adjacent High Plains. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected starting D4/Sunday over parts of eastern NM, West TX, and into parts of eastern CO and WY. Surface winds greater than 20 mph and RH below 25% will be possible, continuing through at least midweek next week. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible given several days of gusty winds and above normal temperatures. Meteorological conditions are also likely to support some risk for more widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions, especially across parts of eastern NM and West TX. However, confidence in the availability of widespread dry fuels remains very low given recent precipitation and hard freezes. The greatest potential for more widespread elevated to locally critical conditions risk is D5/Monday into D6/Tuesday, Here, strong winds and low humidity will best overlap with fuels that have received multiple days of potential drying. However, probabilities will be withheld for now given the uncertainty. Into the later part of the forecast period, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains bringing another cooler air mass into the region where it will remain through the end of the forecast period. Fire-weather concerns appear less likely, but model differences are still large with some solutions favoring a windier and drier later half of the period. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ Relatively dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms over virtually all of the CONUS today. The one area of minor concern is across parts of western OR/WA as a shortwave trough moves ashore. However, the back edge of the forcing and moist plume is moving onshore now, and no lightning has been observed so far. Given the very marginal thermodynamic setup, have removed 10% lightning probabilities for this region. But nevertheless, an isolated flash or two cannot be ruled out. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the prior outlook, dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the central US and Great Lakes. However, area fuels are not receptive after recent precipitation, keeping overall fire-weather concerns low. See the previous discussion for additional info. ..Lyons.. 11/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With surface high pressure remaining anchored over much of the central and eastern states, thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across a large majority of the CONUS on Friday. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where low-level moisture will gradually increase as a weak low-level easterly wave moves over these areas and the FL Straits. Even with poor lapse rates expected, isolated thunderstorms may still occur along mesoscale boundaries/sea breezes through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With surface high pressure remaining anchored over much of the central and eastern states, thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across a large majority of the CONUS on Friday. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where low-level moisture will gradually increase as a weak low-level easterly wave moves over these areas and the FL Straits. Even with poor lapse rates expected, isolated thunderstorms may still occur along mesoscale boundaries/sea breezes through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With surface high pressure remaining anchored over much of the central and eastern states, thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across a large majority of the CONUS on Friday. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where low-level moisture will gradually increase as a weak low-level easterly wave moves over these areas and the FL Straits. Even with poor lapse rates expected, isolated thunderstorms may still occur along mesoscale boundaries/sea breezes through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With surface high pressure remaining anchored over much of the central and eastern states, thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across a large majority of the CONUS on Friday. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where low-level moisture will gradually increase as a weak low-level easterly wave moves over these areas and the FL Straits. Even with poor lapse rates expected, isolated thunderstorms may still occur along mesoscale boundaries/sea breezes through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With surface high pressure remaining anchored over much of the central and eastern states, thunderstorm potential will remain quite limited across a large majority of the CONUS on Friday. One exception may be across parts of south FL and the Keys, where low-level moisture will gradually increase as a weak low-level easterly wave moves over these areas and the FL Straits. Even with poor lapse rates expected, isolated thunderstorms may still occur along mesoscale boundaries/sea breezes through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/02/2023 Read more