Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A similar pattern to Day 1 will characterize the synoptic setup for Day 2, with a surface anticyclone lingering along the East Coast amid predominantly zonal mid-level flow. Dry air will continue to overspread the Southeast into the central Appalachians, but with surface winds too weak to support a significant wildfire-spread threat. Likewise, moister low-level air over the OH Valley and recent rainfall should limit wildfire-spread potential over these regions. Nonetheless, in both regimes, an instance or two of locally favorable wildfire-spread conditions cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Today, a surface anticyclone will remain stationary along the East Coast as a weak but broad mid-level trough glances by to the north. The surface high will support dry air (i.e. 25-35 percent RH) meandering across the TN Valley into the central Appalachians. However, given weak surface winds, the wildfire-spread threat should remain localized at best. Surface winds will be stronger farther north across the OH Valley beneath the passing upper-level trough. However, since RH should generally remain above 30 percent, and given recent appreciable rainfall in the past 3 days, the wildfire-spread threat should be too limited to warrant fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that another substantive short wave trough will emerge from a strong mid/upper jet over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, and approach the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by late Friday night. This perturbation is forecast to support the development of a significant surface cyclone, which may begin occluding while approaching the British Columbia coast. Precipitation may initially spread inland with a warm front across parts of the Pacific Northwest, trailed by a precipitation band along the occluding front prior to 12Z Saturday. While layers of very weak elevated instability may contribute to embedded convection, forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm air/weak lapse rates farther aloft will generally tend to inhibit lightning production. East of the Rockies, cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained across much of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast vicinity, through the southern Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. Convective potential appears likely to remain negligible across most areas. However, it is possible that boundary layer modification and moistening near the Gulf Stream, offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, may contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity by Friday night. ..Kerr.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.