Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 11/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low approaching deep South TX will continue lifting east/northeast today towards the southern Appalachians/Southeast while transitioning into an open wave. Occasional lightning flashes were noted earlier across the western Gulf of Mexico, however the lack of notable buoyancy across the Southeast and Gulf Coast and general weakening of large-scale ascent with time precludes any appreciable risk for thunderstorms through tonight. Farther west, an upper trough will dig southeast and close off over NV/UT. Increasing ascent/mid-level cooling could result in an isolated lightning flash in the vicinity of the evolving upper low, but the overall thunder potential is very low. ..Bunting.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The mid/upper-level pattern will evolve toward western CONUS troughing, as a series of shortwave perturbations now over the Canadian Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and offshore from CA, phase into a closed cyclone over the ID/NV border by 00Z. The resulting vortex then should intensify and move slowly southeastward across the Great Basin through the rest of this period, and into day 2. A cold-core region of strong midlevel DCVA/ascent and related destabilization aloft will contribute to weak convection across parts of northern NV and western UT through tonight. Theta-e appears too weak for a 10% or greater areal thunderstorm threat, though isolated/brief thunder is possible. Ahead of that system, height falls will expand across the Desert Southwest, Colorado Plateau, northwestern MX, and tonight, the Rocky Mountain States. As that occurs, a southern-stream cyclone now over northeastern MX will devolve to an open wave, eject/accelerate into broadly confluent flow aloft over the Gulf Coast States, and weaken markedly. Before it does, the foregoing area of precip and embedded showers will continue to shift northeastward to east-northeastward across south and east TX, parts of LA, and the northwest Gulf. A few flashes have been detected the past several hours over northeastern MX and the Gulf. However, overall mid/upper forcing will be diminishing with time. Buoyancy will remain very weak behind the prior low-level cold-frontal passage, and lightning potential (if any) appears too isolated and unfocused for an outlook area. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/23/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential through the middle of next week. On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north. While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will remain over the Gulf. In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most of the CONUS into the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential through the middle of next week. On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north. While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will remain over the Gulf. In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most of the CONUS into the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential through the middle of next week. On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north. While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will remain over the Gulf. In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most of the CONUS into the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential through the middle of next week. On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north. While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will remain over the Gulf. In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most of the CONUS into the middle of next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0321 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Low-level moisture is generally expected to remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico and occasionally near-coastal areas through the extended range, which is expected to limit severe-thunderstorm potential through the middle of next week. On D4/Sunday, a frontal wave is forecast to move eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This wave is expected to remain rather weak, with stronger upper-level support displaced to the north. While some convection may affect portions of the Gulf Coast and the northern FL Peninsula in association with this wave, current guidance generally suggests that the strongest thunderstorms will remain over the Gulf. In the wake of the D4/Sunday system, another cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula. This should tend to limit moisture return and convective potential across most of the CONUS into the middle of next week. Read more