Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Tuesday across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a large but progressive upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the Northeast. Cool air aloft over the Lower Great Lakes may lead to a rogue lightning flash associated with low-topped convection. However, veering low-level winds and decreasing surface convergence suggest less than 10% coverage on the lee side of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Farther west, a shortwave trough will affect the West Coast overnight, with cool air aloft into northern CA by 12Z Wednesday. Convergence along an associated cold front and large-scale ascent may result in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE beneath the upper trough, with lighting possibly over land at the end of the Day 2 period. ..Smith.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... An amplified mid/upper-level ridge will move slowly eastward across the western CONUS, maintaining surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This pattern will continue to support an enhanced offshore pressure gradient over southern California. Over portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, a belt of breezy/gusty east-northeasterly surface winds will overlap 15-25 percent minimum RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, recent rainfall and a marginal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH should limit the overall threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Mon Nov 27 2023 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Ridging aloft over the Pacific coast and a cool/continental air mass in the low levels across the eastern CONUS will limit the potential for thunderstorms through Tuesday morning. Broadly cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes will support lake effect snow bands given the relatively warm waters. Inversion heights are relatively low (below the 700 mb level) and temperatures are cold enough in the low levels to make mixed phase/charge separation unlikely across the Upper Great Lakes. Somewhat warmer low-level profiles and weak buoyancy will be at least marginally favorable for isolated lightning flashes immediately downwind of Lake Erie/Ontario. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/27/2023 Read more