Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while an attendant surface low tracks east-northeastward from NM across north TX. On the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong westerlies aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeastern NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. These winds, coupled with 25-30 percent RH, could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the marginal RH reductions (stunted by upper 20s/lower 30s surface dewpoints) and limited fuels should mitigate the overall fire-weather threat. Farther east over parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds are expected along the western periphery of an expansive surface high centered off the Carolinas coast. Limited RH reductions should generally temper fire-weather potential here, though receptive fuels may still favor spotty elevated conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible during the day on Thursday, mainly over southeast Texas. A conditional risk for a few tornadoes will be possible during the day. Otherwise, marginal hail will be possible extending northward into parts of Oklahoma. ...Discussion... A rather conditional severe thunderstorm set up is expected on Thursday, mainly during the morning and afternoon hours across southeast Texas. A warm advection regime, resulting in widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will be underway at the beginning of the period as a shortwave trough tracks across the central/southern Plains vicinity. Upper 60s F dewpoints will be focused near the Middle and Upper Texas Coast with low to mid-60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the Red River/ArkLaTex vicinity. A surface low will develop and shift east/northeast across OK/MO as a trailing cold front moves southeast across the southern Plains after 00z. Forecast vertical shear profiles are impressive with large, curved low-level hodographs becoming elongated/straight near 3 km. Strong low-level southerly flow, with around 40-50 kt at 850 mb, is expected. Effective SRH values greater than 300 m2/s2 near and north of a warm front across east TX are depicted in forecast guidance as well. This shear space conditionally would support supercell thunderstorms. However, low-level thermodynamics appear problematic. Surface temperatures and dewpoints may struggle to reach higher than 68-69 F (except perhaps near the immediate coast). Furthermore, cloudiness and morning convection will limit heating, and forecast soundings indicate low-level lapse rates remaining quite poor and nearly moist adiabatic. HREF members also continue to depict stronger negative UH tracks than positive UH tracks, which is an indication that storms may struggle to be rooted near the surface, limiting access to better low-level vertical shear. Additionally, forecast guidance shows modest warming through the day in the 850-500 mb layer, while stronger large-scale ascent remains focused north of the region. An outlook downgrade was considered. However, if boundary-layer moisture is greater than forecast, or any stronger heating can occur, low-level thermodynamics would improve and allow convection to access better low-level shear, resulting in an increased risk for a few tornadoes. As such, will maintain the Enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk with only minor changes/eastward adjustments compared to the previous outlook based on latest guidance. Further north across north TX into OK, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast closer to the midlevel speed max. Convection will remain elevated, but sufficient elevated instability within a favorable shear environment will support isolated hail in the stronger cells through early evening. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more