Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially over western CO is forecast to evolve into a shortwave trough and accelerate eastward toward the central Plains on Saturday. A front extending from near deep south TX eastward over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move slowly northward through the day/evening, with richer low-level moisture returning to near coastal areas. The front will remain displaced well south of the ejecting upper-level trough, but a weak southern-stream shortwave may help to induce frontal-wave development near the upper TX coast by the end of the period. In response to increasing moisture and development of modest MUCAPE, elevated convection may develop north of the front near the middle/upper TX coastal plain Saturday night into early Sunday morning. With generally weak midlevel lapse rates, equilibrium-level temperatures may remain relatively warm, which could tend to limit lightning potential. A small general thunderstorm area has been included near the coast, where buoyancy may become sufficient to support sporadic lightning flashes with the strongest convection. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper low over the central Rockies will gradually weaken as it transitions to an open wave over the central Plains by late D2/Friday. Mostly zonal flow aloft will persist elsewhere over the CONUS, as a weak shortwave ridge moves eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes. At the surface, Arctic air behind a strong cold front will continue to move south, supporting widespread winter precipitation across parts of the central High Plains. Broad high pressure at the surface will favor weak winds over much of the US. With cool temperatures and moderate RH, poor overlap of dry and breezy conditions are expected for much of the CONUS. Thus, fire-weather concerns appear limited. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Across the CONUS, the mid-level flow pattern will trend toward quasi-zonal as an upper low deepens across the Great Basin. At the surface, a strong cold front and Arctic high pressure will move south over the northern Rockies and Plains through the period. The high pressure should keep winds relatively light with widespread winter precipitation expected to develop ahead of the cold front over the Rockies and adjacent Plains. Moderate RH, cooler temperatures and weak winds suggest fire-weather concerns will remain very low over much of the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/23/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially centered over Utah is forecast to gradually shift eastward on Friday, as a rather strong mid/upper-level jet moves through the base of the trough over the Southwest. Sporadic lightning flashes will be possible with weak convection that develops near the Four Corners region, where some very modest heating/destabilization is possible during the afternoon. The front that moved into the Gulf and across the FL Peninsula earlier this week is forecast to become nearly stationary, and then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Friday. Weak surface waves may develop along the front near the southeast FL coast, and also over the central Gulf of Mexico. Despite increasing moisture across parts of the FL Peninsula, poor midlevel lapse rates and weak large-scale ascent are currently expected to limit thunderstorm potential over inland areas and the Keys. ..Dean.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thanksgiving thunderstorm potential appears low. ...South Florida... Weak midlevel height rises are expected across south Florida on Thanksgiving as the northern extent of broad ridging will influence this region. Surface front should settle south, and the primary zone of low-level convergence is forecast to focus just offshore. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will evolve near the frontal zone, but most inland showers will be weak and not expected to pose much threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/23/2023 Read more