Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will lift northeast over New England on Thursday while a shortwave upper trough weakens while shifting from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude upper trough will move across the Pacific Northwest. A dearth of boundary-layer moisture is forecast in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Day 2/Wed time period. However, midlevel moisture will increase across parts of TX into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the Plains shortwave trough. Modest midlevel lapse rates will also be present, providing support for weak elevated instability overnight. This should allow for isolated thunderstorms from east TX into parts the Lower MS Valley, though severe storms are not expected. Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible as the upper trough moves inland across the Pacific Northwest. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...eastern Missouri across southern Illinois and toward the lower Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270600Z - 270800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms may eventually form within a west-east oriented zone as midlevel convection moves out of Missouri and toward the lower Ohio Valley. Marginal hail or gusty winds may occur later tonight. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate gradually increasing midlevel convection over central MO, near the midlevel temperature gradient. Though no lightning has been observed, models do support increasing trends as the activity possibly interacts with increasing low-level moisture across the MS/OH Valleys. If the area of convection can increase in size and intensity, gusty winds and/or marginal hail could develop, as lapse rates are very steep aloft, and deep-layer shear is strong. In general, the activity is expected to remain elevated, barring any eventual cold pool from aggregating showers or storms. As such, limited severe potential exists in the near term, but trends will be monitored tonight. ..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37589094 37679122 37939178 38139187 38349177 38509152 38479067 38458902 38288771 38018725 37748709 37358718 37158742 37198806 37338904 37589094 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio and West Virginia. ...Central Appalachians... A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection develops eastward through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 02/27/2024 Read more