Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There continues to be variability in the locations in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley that will see the most favorable overlap of lowered RH and stronger winds. Further, winds will be strongest in the morning and will steadily decline into the afternoon. Given these uncertainties, no highlights will be added. However, locally elevated conditions are still expected. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There continues to be variability in the locations in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley that will see the most favorable overlap of lowered RH and stronger winds. Further, winds will be strongest in the morning and will steadily decline into the afternoon. Given these uncertainties, no highlights will be added. However, locally elevated conditions are still expected. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There continues to be variability in the locations in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley that will see the most favorable overlap of lowered RH and stronger winds. Further, winds will be strongest in the morning and will steadily decline into the afternoon. Given these uncertainties, no highlights will be added. However, locally elevated conditions are still expected. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There continues to be variability in the locations in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley that will see the most favorable overlap of lowered RH and stronger winds. Further, winds will be strongest in the morning and will steadily decline into the afternoon. Given these uncertainties, no highlights will be added. However, locally elevated conditions are still expected. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Central US is forecast to amplify significantly as it moves into the northeast Wednesday. Behind the trough a strong cold front will sweep southeastward ushering in a much colder air mass over the western and central US. Behind the front, strong northerly winds are expected over the Plains along with higher relative humidity, limiting the fire-weather threat. One exception, may be across parts of south TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Winds of 20-25 mph may briefly overlap with humidity below 30% over areas of somewhat receptive fuels. However, this is likely to be brief and widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0160 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND SOUTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Areas affected...Northwest to north-central MN and southeast ND Concerning...Blizzard Valid 271445Z - 271845Z SUMMARY...A band of persistent heavy snow with 1-2 inch/hour rates will shift northeast across northwest and north-central Minnesota into northwest Ontario. Near-blizzard to blizzard conditions should continue in its wake where light to moderate snow occurs, mainly across the Red River Valley. DISCUSSION...Based on observed snow reports and imagery, a band of heavy snow is ongoing from the Fargo-Moorhead vicinity northeastward across northwest MN. This heavy snow band aligns well with 700-mb frontogenesis and is expected to shift northeast across north-central MN into northwest Ontario through midday. Meanwhile, strong to severe gradient winds (gust to 51 kts measured at KFAR) near and to the backside of this heavy snow band has yielded several obs with visibility of a half-mile or less. The bulk of the tighter surface pressure gradient and low-level flow should generally shift east into the afternoon, suggesting the more persistent near-blizzard to blizzard conditions should be favored over the Red River Valley and parts of northwest MN. ..Grams.. 02/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46569792 47439686 48389538 48769471 48999362 48829246 48129275 46499545 45939613 45749653 45689715 45789757 46079791 46569792 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more