Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ...Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ...Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ..Mosier.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... Modest modifications have been made to the Elevated/Critical areas based on morning observations and the latest guidance. Ongoing fire activity in the Texas Panhandle will be exposed to increasing winds through the day. Furthermore, a wind shift to strong northerly winds will occur this evening in the southern Plains. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 02/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will gradually consolidate as a Pacific trough merges with an increasingly strong subtropical jet stream over the central CONUS. Very strong westerly flow is expected over the Plains and Midwest, supporting dry and windy conditions. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are excepted. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to move over the Plains, strong low-level flow is expected to develop by mid morning. Westerly winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts of 30-35 mph, are possible across parts of western and central OK and the TX Panhandle. Despite dry downsloping and the unusually warm temperatures, increasing mid and high-level cloud cover may limit diurnal RH minimums to near 20-25%. Still, widespread elevated to near/briefly critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given the increasingly strong wind gusts. Significant fire activity over the preceding days also suggests fuels are more receptive than some guidance indicated. Thus, greater confidence exists for critical conditions across parts of western and central OK and the eastern TX Panhandle where the strongest winds are expected to overlap more receptive fuels, despite marginal humidity. To the east, a pronounced low-level thermal ridge behind a surface trough will support afternoon RH values below 30% with southwest winds of 20-25 mph across the eastern Plains into western MO. While RH values are not overly dry, the strong winds and unusually warm temperatures should allow for widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns will begin to diminish later in the evening as a cold front rapidly moves south. Strong gusts may persist behind the front along with a rapid wind shift to north/northwesterly. Cooler temperatures and higher RH behind the front should quickly limit sustained fire-weather concerns through the overnight hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS A SMALL PART OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes, some of which may be significant, will be possible from late this afternoon into the overnight, across portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. ...OH Valley... A fast-moving southern-stream shortwave trough over the central Plains will track eastward today and begin affecting parts of MO by late afternoon or early evening. Most 12z guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorm development will begin around/after dusk as the large-scale forcing overspreads the northern extent of moist/unstable air mass from southwest MO into southern IL. These storms will intensify and track eastward overnight roughly along the OH river, moving into parts of OH/WV/PA by early morning Wednesday. Initial storms may be discrete, with sufficient vertical shear for supercells structures capable of all severe hazards. As the night progresses, activity will likely evolve into fast-moving bowing structures with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Have added an ENH risk area for this scenario overnight. ...IL/WI... A compact surface low is forecast to deepen across eastern IA this afternoon, with a narrow warm sector pulling northward into much of northern IL. Strong forcing near the low and along the associated warm front will lead to intense thunderstorms across portions of northern IL after 22z. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE, along with strong low and deep layer shear profiles. This will be conducive to supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. There remains uncertainty whether these storms will be in the warm-sector, or will be undercut by nearby cold air. Have upgraded a small part of this area to ENH risk for hail, but there is also concern for tornadoes if the activity remains surface-based. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/27/2024 Read more