Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move eastward from the Rockies into the MS Valley through the period, while a belt of strong low/midlevel west-southwesterly flow persists from northern MX across south/central TX. At the same time, a related surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward from northeast TX into the OH Valley. On the backside of the departing surface cyclone, a modest pressure gradient and strong downslope flow will contribute to warm, dry, and breezy conditions along the Rio Grande during the afternoon. The overlap of 15-20 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 10-15 percent RH will yield elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more