Severe Storms

MD 0197 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...North central Oklahoma to southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071927Z - 072200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected across north-central Oklahoma and southeast Kansas in the coming hours. These storms will likely pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours, gradually clearing skies across north-central OK and south-central KS have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid 60s to low 70s. Although diurnal mixing has scoured moisture to the south of the synoptic frontal zone (dewpoints have fallen into the mid to upper 40s), dewpoints remain in the mid 50s along the surface warm front and to the north of a differential heating/outflow boundary draped across northern OK. With steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the region, MLCAPE is gradually increasing with further improvement possible amid a subtle influx of low-level moisture from northeast OK within the southeasterly flow regime. Thunderstorm initiation is probable in the coming hours in the vicinity of the surface low and/or along the differential heating boundary as ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation overspreads the region (denoted by a cirrus plume currently over the TX Panhandle). Latest HRRR/WOFS guidance suggests this should occur during the 21-23 UTC time frame. Wind profiles will be favorable for supercells, and enhanced low-level helicity between the differential heating boundary and warm front may support a locally higher tornado threat across northern OK/south-central KS. Further downstream into southeast KS, the gradual erosion of the stratiform rain/cloud field casts uncertainty on destabilization, but a few robust storms will likely persist and pose a hail/wind threat this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36499692 36689742 36789777 36839802 37119812 37539782 38059705 38309623 38469552 38439498 38099470 37759464 37309480 36949538 36669625 36499692 Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 30 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 30 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 072240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-035-053-071-105-113-147-072240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA CRAIG GRANT KAY NOWATA OSAGE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0031 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 31 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..03/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...FWD...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 31 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-055-057-065- 067-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-129-137-141-149-151-153- 072240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA ROGER MILLS STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-101-133-151-155-173-197-207- 235-253-269-275-307-335-353-383-399-415-417-429-431-433-441-447- 451-485-487-503-072240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0198 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0198 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Central and western Oklahoma into northwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071930Z - 072130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the coming hours. These storms will initially pose a large hail threat before transitioning to primarily a severe wind threat during the evening hours. Watch issuance is probable. DISCUSSION...Surface observations over the past few hours have shown gradual moisture return into western OK ahead of a sharpening dryline/surface trough. Although this moisture is somewhat meager (low to mid 50 dewpoints), steep mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread the region amid a west/southwesterly mid-level flow regime. While MLCAPE remains very minimal at the moment, continued low-level moisture return should result in gradually improving buoyancy through the late afternoon and evening hours. Regardless, ascent associated with a subtle mid-level perturbation is overspreading the TX Panhandle with high-based cumulus development noted behind the dryline. This ascent is forecast to reach the warm sector across western OK/northwest TX in the coming hours, and recent HRRR/WOFS runs suggest initiation is likely during the 21-23 UTC period. Although convection may initially be anemic owing to the modest buoyancy, the severe threat should steadily increase heading into the evening hours with initially discrete cells posing a large hail risk across northwest TX/western OK before upscale growth favors an increasing wind threat further east into central OK. Watch issuance is probable in the coming hours as sufficient buoyancy becomes established to support severe convection. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... LAT...LON 34180013 34789986 35689964 36419931 36759878 36869847 36809814 36609783 36379758 36099737 35719730 35379741 35009772 34559806 33909871 33629900 33499931 33579970 33619988 33780017 34180013 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Pronounced mid-level troughs will traverse the Southwest and eject into the Southern Plains during the early to mid-week time frame, promoting surface lee troughing across the central U.S. For Days 5-7/Monday-Wednesday, downslope flow will support some potential for dry and windy surface conditions across the southern High Plains, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. Around Day 8/Thursday, a surface cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, resulting in cooler temperatures and possible rainfall. ..Squitieri.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0196 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071642Z - 072045Z SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening. This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall. Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends. ..Moore.. 03/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167 41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263 39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357 Read more

WW 0030 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0030 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 7 20:08:02 UTC 2024.