Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH FL...SC...AND WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening over parts of south Florida and South Carolina, and from late afternoon into tonight over west-central to northeast Texas. ...20Z Update... Across the FL Peninsula and SC vicinity, severe potential appears limited through about 23Z before convection shifts off the Atlantic coast. Over TX, initial cumulus development in the Concho Valley should be the precursor to a couple storms by early evening. Primary outlook change was to expand a bit east-northeast across a portion of the Red River Valley. Recent RRFS and 12Z MPAS runs, along with observational trends support potential for isolated thunderstorm development near the slowly advancing warm front. Lower-end severe hail and strong wind gusts appear possible. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. Read more

MD 0194 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0194 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061801Z - 062000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over the next couple of hours. Isolated strong storms may produce hail near a half inch to 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms along the southwest coast of the FL Peninsula have increased in intensity over the past 30 minutes or so. This activity is moving east along a weak differential heating zone created by early clouds and morning showers, and within a zone of weak low-level convergence. Despite scattered clouds across the central/southern Peninsula, dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s to near 70 F and modest midlevel lapse rates has allowed MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. A 17z RAOB from MFL does indicated some weak inhibition in the 500-1500 m layer, though ample elevated instability is noted. Additional heating increasing ascent through the afternoon should largely mitigate inhibition. Vertical shear will remain somewhat marginal, around 25-35 kt, but sufficient for at least transient/short-lived strong/organized updrafts. Hail approaching 1 inch in diameter and gusty winds will be the main hazards with isolated thunderstorm activity through 23-00z. Low-level winds are fairly weak, especially through 1 km. However, some favorable curvature to low-level hodograph (per 17z MFL RAOB and region radar VWPs) and effective SRH around 100 m2/s2 amid a very moist low-level airmass could support a brief/weak spin-up near the southeast coast where better low-level convergence is noted. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain marginal and sporadic, and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Hart.. 03/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 25668008 25488016 25468029 25418060 25498093 25728141 26038180 26558182 27568158 28288116 28448073 28258039 28078021 27597998 26317984 25668008 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of an amplifying large-scale trough over the western CONUS, strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains. In response, a lee surface cyclone will deepen in the vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over West TX. ...Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying will contribute to a deeply mixed boundary layer, extending up to around 4.5 km AGL across portions of eastern NM and West TX -- despite increasing mid/high-level clouds ahead of the large-scale trough. This will support an expansive area of 12-15 percent minimum RH and temperatures in the lower 70s across the area. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the lee cyclone, coupled with strong winds through the deepening boundary layer, will favor 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 35 mph). Given receptive fuels over the southern High Plains (80th+ percentile ERCs), critical fire-weather conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM and West TX. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across a portion of the southern Great Plains. Large hail should be the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... A series of lower-amplitude shortwave impulses will eject into/through the basal portion of a broad upper trough across the Southwest. The bulk of fast mid-level westerlies will largely be confined across north Mexico, but will overspread parts of south TX by early Friday in association with a leading shortwave impulse. A lee surface cyclone will diurnally deepen across the TX Panhandle with a Pacific cold front overtaking the dryline late in west TX. To the northeast of the surface low, an initially quasi-stationary front should accelerate southeastward early Friday. ...Southern KS to central TX... Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of north TX towards the Ozark Plateau. This convection will be tied to low-level warm theta-e advection attendant to a southerly low-level jet. With generally weak MUCAPE, small to marginally severe hail may occur with the more robust cores. This convection should linger through most of the day across north TX with regeneration occurring on the west side of the broader convective swath, along the eastern periphery of the steep mid-level lapse rate plume. The degree of boundary-layer moistening to the west/northwest of this activity will likely be tempered into the afternoon. Guidance depicts relatively large spread for a D2 forecast with regard to the northwest spatial extent of the modified moisture return and the overall degree of buoyancy is questionable. Still, with robust boundary-layer heating west of the dryline, the triple-point region near the surface cyclone across the far eastern TX Panhandle into northwest OK should be a favored corridor for evening large hail potential. Within the downstream warm conveyor, at least elevated convection will be likely near/north of the quasi-stationary front into south-central KS. A severe hail threat should extend here given the feed of very steep mid-level lapse rates upstream. Farther south from western to north TX into the Edwards Plateau, convective development should be tied to mid-level height falls and increasing low-level convergence as the Pacific front impinges on the dryline on Thursday night. This should favor modest upscale growth into multiple clusters with embedded transient supercells capable of producing sporadic severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts. There is below-average confidence in whether a greater than marginal severe threat will spread into the I-35 corridor/Metroplex vicinity before 12Z Fri. ..Grams.. 03/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more