Severe Storms

MD 1739 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN ND/WESTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern MT/far northeast WY/western ND/western SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202145Z - 202315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase initially across east/southeast Montana and possibly far northeast Wyoming into the far western Dakotas through early evening. DISCUSSION...Storms have shown recent signs of intensification within a semi-moist/moderately unstable corridor from east-central Montana into southwest North Dakota, with additional towering cu noted in visible satellite imagery across southeast Montana. The region is being influenced by a shortwave trough over Alberta/Saskatchewan and a related belt of low-amplitude westerlies, contributing to 40+ kt effective shear. Scenario will support at least isolated severe storm development including some initial supercells with the potential for large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible Watch. ..Guyer/Hart.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47570601 47840329 47310175 45600136 44770222 44560357 44620665 46370753 47570601 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0533 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 533 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 202310Z - 210500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana * Effective this Sunday night from 610 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms has formed in southeast Illinois. These storms are expected to track southeastward this evening across the watch area. Damaging winds are the main concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Mattoon IL to 30 miles north northeast of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 530...WW 531...WW 532... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0532 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0531 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1738 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...south-central South Dakota across western Nebraska and toward northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201941Z - 202215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this afternoon from south-central SD across west-central NE and toward northwest KS. A few cells may produce large hail, with locally damaging gusts. A tornado is possible over southern SD into far northern NE after 23Z. A portion of the area may require a watch. DISCUSSION...Surface map shows low pressure extending from southwest SD across western NE and into the CO/KS border area, with strong heating. This trough will continue to deepen, and sufficient convergence within the uncapped air mass should allow for widely scattered storms to develop late this afternoon. Of particular note is the warm front area which currently curls northwestward out of northern NE and into south-central SD. Here, heating is occurring on the cool side of the boundary, where dewpoints remain above 70 F and low-level shear is enhanced. Any supercell that develops here, most likely after 23Z, could be tornadic at times, and produce very large hail as it proceeds southeastward, aided by a modest evening low-level jet. Farther south into the deeper/heated air mass, higher based storms are expected, and overall shear is weaker as well. However, steep lapse rates will favor locally severe gusts, and even some hail in the early and robust formation stages. ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 42940011 41680031 40480068 39280162 39210233 40430230 41640217 42900209 43440215 43740228 44020246 44250227 44360152 44250113 43880051 42940011 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z A mid-level trough with enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest early in the extended period, before ejecting across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. A portion of this trough is progged to remain as a cutoff low off the California coast Day 4/Wednesday through Day 6/Friday. A secondary trough will deepen across the Western United States next weekend. ...D3/Tuesday - D4/Wednesday... Some locally dry and breezy conditions are expected Day 3/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns which precludes the need to include any areas at this time. Afternoon relative humidity will remain low, in the 10-20 percent range across much of the Great Basin and southwest. D3/Tuesday a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across the Northwest as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), storm motions will be around 10-20 mph. Critically receptive fuels may support new ignitions outside of heavier cores. Overall, probabilities/coverage remain too low to include areas at this time. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 5/Thursday and D6/Friday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. As moisture increases, these are likely to be mostly wet thunderstorms though lightning efficiency will increase. As such, no dry thunderstorm areas have been included at this time. ..Thornton.. 07/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more