SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-087-103-109-210240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD TREASURE WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-210240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 532 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W VTN TO 15 ENE PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC017-031-103-149-210240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHERRY KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC075-085-095-121-123-210240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 1743

2 months ago
MD 1743 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 532... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Areas affected...South-central South Dakota/north-central Nebraska Concerning...Tornado Watch 532... Valid 210038Z - 210145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 532 continues. SUMMARY...A relatively focused potential for large hail and a tornado continues with supercells across south-central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska, centered on Todd County, South Dakota and eastern Cherry County, Nebraska. DISCUSSION...After storm mergers, an intense supercell with history of baseball-size hail continues to approach the South Dakota/Nebraska border vicinity in Todd County, SD as of 730pm CDT, approximately 15-20 miles northwest of Valentine, NE. Continued south-southeastward storm persistence seems likely into Cherry County, potentially including the immediate Valentine vicinity. Other severe storms persist farther south in Cherry County, with other splitting supercells near/north of I-90 east of Phillip, SD. The ambient environment remains rather moist with near 70F surface dewpoints, with some strengthening of storm propagation/sustenance-favorable southeasterly winds within the boundary layer. Large hail and some tornado potential will likely persist for a couple more hours as storms/right-moving supercells persist slowly southeastward within the instability axis. Recent WSR-88D VWP data from North Platte substantiates at least 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, with some additional increase expected over the next hour or two. ..Guyer.. 07/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 44140144 44360089 43420043 42980019 42419976 42100003 42230134 43130138 44140144 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Jul 21, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...PARTS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms remain possible in parts of the northern/central Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley... An MCV moving into Illinois is continuing to promote convection along a stationary boundary. Though deep-layer shear is modest, strong buoyancy is still in place. A couple of more organized clusters may produce wind damage as they move southeastward this evening. A brief tornado near the boundary could also occur. ...Northern/central Plains... Several supercells are ongoing in parts of eastern Montana into southwest South Dakota. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear will continue to promote storms capable of large/very-large hail and severe wind gusts. Farther south, isolated but intense supercells have persisted in south-central South Dakota into north-central Nebraska. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the main concerns, but low-level shear will increase modestly this evening and a tornado will remain possible. ...Kansas/Missouri... As the low-level jet increases this evening, warm advection is expected to initiate convection in northern Missouri and perhaps northeast Kansas. Given around 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE, the stronger storms may produce isolated strong/damaging winds later this evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 ..DEAN..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC021-023-025-033-035-047-049-079-101-159-173-185-210140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY WABASH INC005-013-019-025-027-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-083-093- 101-105-117-125-143-153-175-210140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE PIKE SCOTT SULLIVAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 533 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 ..DEAN..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC021-023-025-033-035-047-049-079-101-159-173-185-210140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND EDWARDS EFFINGHAM JASPER LAWRENCE RICHLAND SHELBY WABASH INC005-013-019-025-027-037-043-051-055-061-071-077-079-083-093- 101-105-117-125-143-153-175-210140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLARK CRAWFORD DAVIESS DUBOIS FLOYD GIBSON GREENE HARRISON JACKSON JEFFERSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN MONROE ORANGE PIKE SCOTT SULLIVAN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-055-075-079-083-087-103-109-210140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD TREASURE WIBAUX NDC001-007-011-025-033-041-053-087-089-210140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BILLINGS BOWMAN DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY HETTINGER MCKENZIE SLOPE STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 532 Status Reports

2 months ago
WW 0532 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 ..GUYER..07/21/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC017-031-103-149-210140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CHERRY KEYA PAHA ROCK SDC007-071-075-085-095-121-123-210140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT JACKSON JONES LYMAN MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
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