Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Latest guidance continues to suggest that localized elevated conditions are probable across west-central NM, generally across the Gila region to the west of the I-25 corridor where fuels aren't as dry compared to locations further south. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the eastern Dakotas and western MN tomorrow afternoon within a dry post-frontal regime. However, recent rainfall has sufficiently limited fuel status enough to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed low in the Great Basin will remain nearly stationary on Friday, though upper-level winds will weaken during the day. High pressure and cooler air will continue to be pushed against the central/southern Rockies. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. However, the spatial extent and duration of these conditions should be less than on Thursday. Only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are required. Latest guidance continues to suggest that localized elevated conditions are probable across west-central NM, generally across the Gila region to the west of the I-25 corridor where fuels aren't as dry compared to locations further south. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the eastern Dakotas and western MN tomorrow afternoon within a dry post-frontal regime. However, recent rainfall has sufficiently limited fuel status enough to preclude the need for highlights. ..Moore.. 05/09/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed low in the Great Basin will remain nearly stationary on Friday, though upper-level winds will weaken during the day. High pressure and cooler air will continue to be pushed against the central/southern Rockies. Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the Southwest. However, the spatial extent and duration of these conditions should be less than on Thursday. Only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0220 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0220 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0220 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N VDI TO 25 SSW OGB TO 35 NNW CHS TO 40 WSW CRE. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-267-091840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-091840- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-091840- CW Read more

WW 0218 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N VDI TO 25 SSW OGB TO 35 NNW CHS TO 40 WSW CRE. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-267-091840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL SCC005-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-091840- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-091840- CW Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Southeast... Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast, especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day 1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the morning. If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail could occur with this activity. Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent, but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible with storms across the Carolinas. ...South-Central TX... A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest... A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the afternoon into early evening. ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024 Read more