Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential on Day 4/Saturday should remain rather limited across the CONUS, as a cold front continues southward over the FL Peninsula. Still, post-frontal low-level easterly flow should occur across parts of northern Mexico into south TX. With steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear present over this region, any thunderstorm that can form and move off the higher terrain of northern Mexico could some hail and gusty winds. Even so, the overall severe threat currently appears too limited/isolated to add a 15% severe area across south TX. From Day 5/Sunday into early next week, a weak upper trough/low should progress slowly eastward from the Southwest across the southern/central Plains, and eventually the MS Valley. Weak low-level mass response ahead of this feature should encourage a northward return of rich low-level moisture over parts of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley/Southeast. Some severe risk may exist each day across these regions. But, differences in evolution of the upper trough, along with uncertainty in how far inland the rich/moist low-level airmass will be able to advance, suggest predictability remains too low to include any severe areas. Read more

WW 0200 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE PBF TO 25 NE LIT TO 40 N DYR. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 200 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-031-035-037-077-085-093-095-107-111-117-123-147-080940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS WOODRUFF MSC033-137-143-080940- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESOTO TATE TUNICA MOC155-080940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0201 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW POF TO 35 NNW HOP TO 45 S SDF. ..BROYLES..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 201 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC031-035-039-047-061-075-083-085-105-141-143-145-157-177-213- 219-221-227-080940- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN EDMONSON FULTON GRAVES GRAYSON HICKMAN LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL MUHLENBERG SIMPSON TODD TRIGG WARREN MOC133-143-201-207-080940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID SCOTT STODDARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0690 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 198...199... FOR OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0690 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Ohio Valley Concerning...Tornado Watch 198...199... Valid 080626Z - 080830Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 198, 199 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado, wind-damage and hail threat will likely continue for several more hours across the Ohio Valley. Additional weather watch issuance appears likely. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a multi-segmented line of strong to severe storms located near the Ohio River from southeast Missouri east-northeastward into southwestern Pennsylvania. The RAP shows the strongest instability from southeast Missouri to central Kentucky, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along this corridor, regional WSR-88D VWPs and RAP forecast soundings have 0-6 km in the 45 to 55 knot range, suggesting the supercells and bowing line segments will be possible tonight. 0-3 km storm-relative helicities near 300 m2/s2 suggests that an isolated tornado threat may accompany the strongest of supercells. However, the greater threat should be for wind damage associated with the more intense line segments. The threats are expected to persist through much of the night, but should become somewhat more isolated with time. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...PAH... LAT...LON 39947934 39368008 38688167 38318339 37818543 37268759 36788949 36759012 36859022 37049029 37229015 37398961 37808837 38648507 39208255 40088047 40578002 40517933 39947934 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south- southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of north FL/southern GA. Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves offshore the GA/SC Coast. ..Gleason.. 05/08/2024 Read more