Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 05/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Southeast while another mid-level trough traverses the central Rockies today. Low-level moisture will move northward ahead of both troughs, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across the central and eastern CONUS. Dry conditions will persist across the Southwest into the High Plains. However, a relatively weak surface wind field will limit wildfire spread potential, precluding the addition of fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR THE TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across the Tennessee Valley region, and through tonight across central/north Florida. ...FL through tonight... An initial MCS moved over north FL/southeast GA earlier this morning and has now weakened, with a trailing outflow boundary to the southwest across north FL. Other storm clusters across the eastern Gulf of Mexico have been moving eastward along the outflow boundary, though most of these storms have tended to weaken before approaching the west central FL Gulf coast. There will still be some potential for new storm development this afternoon along the outflow boundary, as well as along the Atlantic coast sea breeze across east central FL. Wind damage with 55-70 mph gusts will be the main threat with the storms along the outflow boundary. Sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs will also support some potential for isolated splitting storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and some hail along the Atlantic coast sea breeze. Additional storms will be possible overnight across north FL. Will maintain a SLGT risk for wind damage potential with any additional clusters overnight, though there is uncertainty regarding the influence of ongoing/diurnal storms farther to the south. ...TN Valley region through late evening... A midlevel trough over the lower-middle MS Valley will move eastward today toward the lower OH/TN Valleys, along with an associated surface cyclone and trailing/weak cold front/trough. Pockets of surface heating along and east of the surface trough will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1500 J/kg range this afternoon, in an environment with sufficient vertical shear for a mix of small storm clusters and a few supercells. These storms will be capable of producing occasional large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging outflow gusts near 60 mph. ...Central High Plains and vicinity through late evening... A midlevel trough with embedded perturbations over ID and WY will move east-southeastward toward the central High Plains through tonight. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited, but surface heating/deep mixing will contribute to inverted-V profiles with sufficient buoyancy for high-based thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon through late evening. ...Northern New England this afternoon... Surface heating and modest low-level moisture along and south of the main cloud band may support isolated strong thunderstorm development for a few hours this afternoon. Isolated/marginally severe hail and wind damage will be possible given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates, cool midlevel temperatures and effective bulk shear near 30 kt. ...The Caprock to the Edwards Plateau in TX this evening... Very isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along a diffuse dryline. Forcing for ascent and moisture will remain limited, but a high-based storm or two could pose a marginal wind/hail threat for a couple of hours this evening. ..Thompson/Barnes.. 05/14/2024 Read more

MD 0781 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0781 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0930 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the northern/central FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141430Z - 141630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms should approach the Tampa metro and vicinity around 15-16Z (11 AM - Noon EDT), while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. New watch issuance is possible to address this potential. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of convection is ongoing this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Recent forward motion of this activity suggests it should approach the FL Gulf Coast by 15-16Z. The 12Z sounding from TBW shows relatively cool mid-level temperatures for FL (-10 C at 500 mb), along with steepened lapse rates associated with an EML above 700 mb. But, there is still a residual cap noted between 800-700 mb, which may tend to limit updraft intensity over land in the short term. Recent surface observations and visible satellite imagery also show strong thunderstorms have developed along trailing outflow from earlier convection across the north-central FL Peninsula. As robust daytime heating of a very moist low-level airmass continues along/south of this boundary, lingering MLCIN should gradually erode. Around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will conditionally support intense updrafts, with sufficiently strong mid-level westerly flow and related deep-layer shear also fostering organized convection. Thunderstorm evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat unclear, as recent IR satellite trends show warming cloud tops with the eastern Gulf convection. There is still some chance that strong to severe thunderstorms consolidate along the outflow boundary over the next couple of hours, and continue spreading eastward across the central FL Peninsula this afternoon. If this scenario materializes, then scattered damaging winds around 50-70 mph would likely be the main threat as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen. A brief tornado or two may also occur, although low-level flow has had a tendency to veer to southwesterly this morning per latest VWPs from KTBW, which has reduced 0-1 km SRH. Marginally severe hail also appears possible with the more robust updrafts. It remains unclear whether a new watch will be needed, but observational trends will be closely monitored. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28838244 29328173 29398092 27968019 27428130 27288265 27768309 28428309 28838244 Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE PIE TO 35 ENE OCF TO 15 SE SGJ. ..GLEASON..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-053-083-119-141640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER HERNANDO MARION SUMTER AMZ454-141640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more