Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast States and Carolinas on Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.. A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Mid MS Valley through east TX early Saturday morning before progressing eastward through the TN Valley and Southeast during the day. Moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, stretching from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast and into the Carolinas early in the period before gradually shifting southeastward over time. A convective line will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning, although its location varies considerably within the guidance. Low-level airmass ahead of this convective across much of the Southeast and Carolinas will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, contributing to moderate buoyancy ahead of the approaching convective line. General expectation is for this line to persist as it moves eastward across the AL, GA, and SC, with some isolated damaging gusts possible. This line is not currently expected to impact NC, but a few thunderstorms are still possible in the afternoon amid low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface low. Buoyancy will be modest, but westerly flow aloft should be strong enough for a few more organized storm structures capable of damaging gusts and/or isolated hail. ...Upper Midwest... A northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move eastward from Saskatchewan and the northern Plains through Manitoba and the Upper Midwest on Saturday. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the Upper Midwest just ahead of the shortwave, with isolated thunderstorm development possible along this front. A storm or two could produce damaging gusts, but the overall coverage is currently expected to remain below the threshold for introducing severe probabilities. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the northern Plains today, supporting strong surface lee troughing over the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). A widespread, strong surface wind field will develop over Wyoming and points eastward as a result. However, guidance varies considerably in terms of how low RH will drop by afternoon peak heating, with some guidance members showing RH dropping as low as 15 percent in some spots, while other members show RH staying well above 25 percent in many locales. When also considering recent rainfall that portions of the northern Plains has received in the past week, fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread should also be mediocre. Fire weather highlights have been withheld given the aforementioned uncertainties with RH and fuels. Nonetheless, localized instances of wildfire growth cannot be ruled out where dry fuel beds exist given the strong winds. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains as a weak surface low develops near the Rio Grande today. Behind the low, isallobaric and downslope northwesterly flow will overspread the Trans Pecos region of Texas during the afternoon. 15+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 10-20 percent RH and dry fuels, warranting the continuation of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MUCH OF LOUISIANA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from far southeast Texas into much of Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi, and western Alabama on Friday. ...East/Southeast TX and Southeast OK through the Lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Southeast... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Lower MO Valley southwestward through central OK and Far West TX and into northeast Mexico early Friday morning. A belt of moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft will likely extend through the base of this shortwave, from northeast Mexico through east/southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley/Southeast. This belt of stronger flow will persist throughout much of the day as its parent shortwave trough shifts eastward/northeastward. Surface pattern preceding this shortwave will be significantly more uncertain, largely resulting from uncertainty related to the timing and strength of an early morning MCS forecast to move from the Lower MS Valley across the central/southern MS and AL. This MCS will likely lead an outflow boundary in its wake, which could then return northward throughout the day amid modest low-level moisture advection. This scenario is supported by much of the guidance. However, if/when any development occurs along and south of this boundary during the afternoon/evening is less clear, likely a result of poor synoptic support and predominantly mesoscale factors contributing to additional initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear suggest that any storms that do develop should quickly become severe, with large to very large hail as the primary threat. Weak low-level flow should keep the tornado threat low, but still non-zero given the likely supercell mode. Height falls should reach the Lower MS Valley late Friday night/early Saturday morning, with around round of thunderstorms likely given that earlier activity is unlikely to overturn the airmass. These storms could evolve into a convective line that would then track quickly eastward across the central Gulf Coast, with damaging gusts as the primary risk. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... A northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern Rockies on Friday, reaching the northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. An attendant surface low will move eastward just ahead of the shortwave, moving across southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Surface lee troughing will sharpen ahead of the shortwave trough as well, with cyclogenesis anticipated across western SD by the late afternoon. A cold front will extend between these two surface lows, progressing eastward/southeastward across the Dakotas and into western MN from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Buoyancy ahead of this cold front will be modest, supported predominantly by cool mid-level temperatures atop a warm and deeply mixed boundary layer. High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front, with strong outflow possible. Upscale growth is anticipated, as amalgamation of storm outflows occurs quickly. Strengthening westerly flow aloft will foster fast storm motion and the potential for some damaging wind gusts as the convective line moves eastward across the Dakotas. ..Mosier.. 05/16/2024 Read more