Severe Storms

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-075-083-089-107- 109-119-121-125-141140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-299-141140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN WARE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ850-141140- Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-047-053-075-083-089-107- 109-119-121-125-141140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON HERNANDO LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER SUWANNEE UNION GAC025-039-049-065-101-127-299-141140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH ECHOLS GLYNN WARE AMZ450-452-454-GMZ850-141140- Read more

MD 0777 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 240... FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into extreme southwest GA Concerning...Tornado Watch 240... Valid 140814Z - 140945Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 240 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado will spread eastward through the early morning. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends indicate that an earlier well-developed MCS over the northeast Gulf of Mexico has experienced some loss in organization and intensity, with warming cloud tops and at least a temporary loss of the earlier more well-defined bowing structure. This is likely due to the MCS moving through a region of relatively weaker instability, generally along/north of the effective surface front. However, some reintensification of this system cannot be ruled out through the early morning. Notable low-level recovery was noted between the 00Z and 06Z TLH soundings, with an increase of 2 g/kg in the lowest 100 mb mean mixing ratio. Observed temperatures and dewpoints remain in the low 70s F from the immediate coastline into eastern parts of the Panhandle, sufficient to support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Rather strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized convection, and some potential for damaging wind remains evident with any embedded stronger band of convection as the MCS moves eastward through the early morning. Also, while low-level flow is relatively modest, sufficient veering in the lowest 1-2 km may support a threat for a brief tornado. ..Dean.. 05/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30718636 30968578 31078479 30958381 30308373 29698370 29308374 29068416 28968466 29048534 29668566 29878620 30718636 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley on D4/Friday. Strong mid-level flow will precede this shortwave, spreading eastward from the Lower MS Valley across the Southeast. Airmass across the Lower MS Valley will likely be characterized by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, with strong instability developing ahead of the approaching shortwave. Severe thunderstorm development is anticipated as the shortwave and associated surface low interact with this unstable and strongly sheared airmass. The timing of thunderstorm development and favored convective mode remains uncertain, but the overall environment and potential severe merits introducing a small 15% area from central LA into central/southern MS. The severe potential may extend into D5/Saturday across AL, GA, and FL Panhandle/northern FL as the shortwave trough continues eastward. However, uncertainty regarding convective evolution from D4/Friday as well as a less favorable severe environment precludes introduce any outlook areas. Shortwave ridging will likely progress through the central/southern Plains on D6/Sunday and the MS Valley on D7/Monday. Medium-range guidance has been consistently suggesting a shortwave trough will progress through the Southwest and into the central/southern Plains early next week. Several days of moisture return could precede this shortwave, with some severe potential becoming more apparent early next week. Even so, given the forecast range and variability within the guidance (particularly with timing), predictability remains low. Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129- 131-133-140940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC027-087-131-185-253-275-140940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DECATUR GRADY LOWNDES SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-140940- Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777 ..DEAN..05/14/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129- 131-133-140940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC027-087-131-185-253-275-140940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DECATUR GRADY LOWNDES SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-140940- Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north and central Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and through the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) is expected to advect northward across TX throughout the day. Given this low-level moisture, strong buoyancy is expected to develop across areas that experience ample daytime heating. This currently looks most likely from the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country TX into Hill Country/central TX, with more uncertainty farther north (from the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK) due to influence of Wednesday night's thunderstorms. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated, with the combination of airmass destabilization, increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence supporting initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear will support an initial supercell mode and robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Quick upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward across central and southeast TX. Elevated thunderstorms may precede this convective line from east/southeast TX into southern LA, and a few of these storms may acquire updrafts strong enough to produce hail. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across north and central Texas on Thursday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and through the southern Plains on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow will likely exist throughout the base of this trough, spreading eastward across TX and into the Lower MS Valley ahead of the wave. Favorable low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) is expected to advect northward across TX throughout the day. Given this low-level moisture, strong buoyancy is expected to develop across areas that experience ample daytime heating. This currently looks most likely from the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country TX into Hill Country/central TX, with more uncertainty farther north (from the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK) due to influence of Wednesday night's thunderstorms. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated, with the combination of airmass destabilization, increasing large-scale ascent, and low-level convergence supporting initiation. Strong buoyancy and shear will support an initial supercell mode and robust updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Quick upscale growth appears probable, with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward across central and southeast TX. Elevated thunderstorms may precede this convective line from east/southeast TX into southern LA, and a few of these storms may acquire updrafts strong enough to produce hail. ...Mid MS Valley... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the region early Thursday morning before continuing northeastward and weakening. Heating in the wake of this early morning activity is expected to result in limited convective inhibition and moderate buoyancy by the afternoon. Convergence along a weak cold front and associated frontal low may result in thunderstorm development. An outflow boundary from the morning storms may also exist, providing another area for low-level convergence and storm initiation. Moderate westerly flow aloft could support a few stronger storms capable of large hail, damaging gusts ..Mosier.. 05/14/2024 Read more