SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 3 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316

1 year 3 months ago
WW 316 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 261700Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northeast Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly northeast posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316

1 year 3 months ago
WW 316 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 261700Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northeast Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly northeast posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TYS TO 45 WNW TRI TO 40 W BLF TO 20 SW BKW TO 25 N BKW TO 20 SSE PKB TO 30 ESE ZZV. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC051-131-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LESLIE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-075-087-097-099-111-113- 115-121-157-159-169-171-173-189-193-197-199-262340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE GRAHAM HAYWOOD IREDELL JACKSON MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MITCHELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TYS TO 45 WNW TRI TO 40 W BLF TO 20 SW BKW TO 25 N BKW TO 20 SSE PKB TO 30 ESE ZZV. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC051-131-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LESLIE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-075-087-097-099-111-113- 115-121-157-159-169-171-173-189-193-197-199-262340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE GRAHAM HAYWOOD IREDELL JACKSON MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MITCHELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317

1 year 3 months ago
WW 317 SEVERE TSTM KY NC OH TN VA WV 261745Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Western North Carolina Southeast Ohio Eastern Tennessee Southwest Virginia Central and Southern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the primary severe weather hazards, however isolated large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Bristol TN to 20 miles northeast of Dublin VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315...WW 316... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 318 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PKB TO 25 NE ZZV TO 35 N ZZV TO 15 SE MFD TO 15 WNW MFD. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-035-055-059-067-075-081-085-093-099-103- 111-133-151-153-155-157-169-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA CUYAHOGA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MEDINA MONROE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 319 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW JLN TO 40 NNE JLN TO 20 ESE SZL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-262340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119- 141-145-153-167-185-209-213-225-229-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 320 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111-121-135- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-027-055-065-077-081-087-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157- 163-165-181-189-199-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 320 Status Reports

1 year 3 months ago
WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111-121-135- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-027-055-065-077-081-087-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157- 163-165-181-189-199-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

SPC PDS Tornado Watch 320

1 year 3 months ago
WW 320 TORNADO AR IL KY MO TN 262100Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East-Central and Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of West Plains MO to 20 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Bunting Read more

SPC MD 983

1 year 3 months ago
MD 0983 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0983 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wisconsin into Northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262026Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat exists, including the potential for a tornado or a couple bouts of strong wind gusts/hail. Given the isolated and brief nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring within the warm sector ahead of the surface low along the WI/IL border, with diurnal heating supporting temperatures approaching the 70 F mark amid mid 60s F dewpoints. Ahead of a surface trough, where SBCAPE is exceeding 1000 J/kg, surface wind remain backed, with substantial veering and strengthening of the low-level wind field contributing to elongated and curved hodographs. 20Z mesoanalysis show over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH in place. As such, any storm that can develop ahead of the surface trough axis before surface winds veer may pose a brief tornado threat, along with strong wind gusts and some hail. Confidence in this conditional scenario is not overly high, precluding a WW issuance at this time. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41588919 42598920 43068869 43098821 42718780 42228768 41768790 41488857 41588919 Read more

SPC MD 984

1 year 3 months ago
MD 0984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262042Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or local expansions of existing watches are needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to address the present severe weather scenario. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... LAT...LON 35998683 36378522 36308381 35938345 35408371 35158422 35118481 35388573 35588637 35998683 Read more
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