Severe Storms

MD 0992 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...FAR SOUTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0618 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast MO...Far Southern IL...Western/Central KY...Far Southwest IN Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262318Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Open warm sector initiation appears to be underway from far southeast Missouri across far southern Illinois into western/central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, are possible. Southern IN and western/central KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite has shown increasingly deep cumulus within the warm sector well ahead of the main cold front from far southwest MO across southern IL into southwest KY and far southwest IN. Some radar returns have been recently noted with this activity as well, giving increasing confidence that at least isolated convective initiation may be realized shortly. A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends across much of this region, resulting in notable low-level veering within the VAD profiles at PAH and HPX. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy exists across the region as well. Mesoanalysis estimates STP is currently from 3 to 5, with this high values expected to persist and expand northeastward with time. The result is an environment that is favorable for supercells capable of all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes. Very large hail up to 2.5" in diameter is possible as well. Some of this area is within the Tornado Watch 230, but those areas to its east including far southern IN and western KY will likely need an additional Tornado Watch soon. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 38128933 38648795 38618586 36998615 36568934 37308980 38128933 Read more

MD 0990 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 319...320... FOR SOUTHERN MO...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0990 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern MO...Northwest/North-Central AR Concerning...Tornado Watch 319...320... Valid 262247Z - 270015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 319, 320 continues. SUMMARY...Discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large hail up to 3" in diameter, and strong gusts up to 70 mph, will persist from central Missouri into northwest/north-central AR. DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed within the open warm sector across southern MO and northwest AR, ahead of the line of storms along the cold front approaching for the northwest. The triplet of supercells in south-central MO (i.e. Texas, Shannon, and Howell Counties) have all shown a notable increase in updraft intensity over the past half hour, with echo tops now over 50 kft in each storm. Another supercell has developed quickly just ahead of the primary line of storms across Pulaski and Phelps Counties. The easternmost two storms also are likely undergoing the splitting process, suggesting some additional strengthening and maturation is possible once this process completes. The downstream airmass is very unstable, with recent mesoanalysis estimating over 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Vertical shear is strong as well, with mesoanalysis estimating effective bulk shear around 50 kt. Low-level flow is somewhat veered, but strong low-level buoyancy (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE over 150 J/kg) should still be more than sufficient for stretching and potential tornadogenesis. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph are possible in addition to tornadoes. The lone supercell along the far western MO/AR border continues to maintain its intensity, although it may now be trending towards a more outflow-dominant structure. However, given the strong buoyancy and robust vertical shear, some additional reorganizing is possible, with an attendant threat for tornadoes once this reorganization occurs. Very large hail up to 3" in diameter and strong gusts up to 70 mph remain possible with this storm as well. ..Mosier.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37849067 36999036 36049193 35909318 36219433 37759224 37849067 Read more

MD 0991 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0991 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin and far northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262253Z - 270000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a couple brief tornadoes looks to continue for the next hour or two. The threat should quickly wane as storms approach the lake. DISCUSSION...As of 2250 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a line of storms ongoing beneath an upper low over parts of southeast WI and far northern IL. Within the line several small supercell structures have developed and have a history of brief tornadoes. Driven by strong low-level buoyancy favorable for stretching abundant ambient vertical vorticity, the risk for brief tornadoes looks to continue for another hour or two. The most favorable location for the tornado risk appears to be the northern most section where the line orientation is more orthogonal to the deep-layer flow. Still, brief tornadoes are possible with any small supercell structures able to develop. Storms should begin to weaken as they encounter the lake breeze boundary where temperatures fall to the low 60s and inhibition increases. Given the limited coverage and short duration, a WW is unlikely, though trends will be monitored. ..Lyons.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX... LAT...LON 43078879 43198885 43338873 43388861 43418845 43318816 43178804 42958792 42668792 42428805 42298816 42178834 42138862 42148874 42368870 42578865 42648867 43078879 Read more

MD 0988 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 317... FOR EASTERN TN...WESTERN NC...NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE SC
Mesoscale Discussion 0988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TN...western NC...northeast GA...upstate SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317... Valid 262235Z - 270000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will persist into the evening. New watch issuance is expected shortly. DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed from southwest NC into upstate SC, within a moderately unstable environment. The GSP VWP depicts rather strong mid/upper-level flow, and 40+ kt of effective shear, which is sufficient to maintain supercells. While midlevel lapse rates are not particularly strong, the moderate instability and favorable storm mode will support a hail threat with the strongest cells. The supercell storm mode could also support a brief tornado threat, even though low-level shear/SRH is not particularly strong. Steep low-level lapse rates resulting from earlier strong diurnal heating will support damaging-wind potential, especially if any sort of clustering or modest upscale growth of ongoing convection can occur. With the threat expected to extend southward of WW 317, new watch issuance is expected shortly. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 36378312 36448208 35418093 34688068 34078144 33968227 34098284 34258320 34688378 35448384 35858360 36378312 Read more

WW 0324 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0324 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 324 TORNADO IL IN KY 262350Z - 270600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 324 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 650 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 650 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are forecast to move into the lower Ohio Valley early this evening and pose a risk for tornadoes, some potentially strong, and large to very large hail (up 2 to 3 inches in diameter). Severe gusts are forecast to become more prevalent later this evening as a severe squall line with embedded supercells or mesovortices moves across the Watch area. A tornado risk will probably accompany any stronger line-embedded circulations. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north northeast of Evansville IN to 30 miles south southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320...WW 321...WW 322...WW 323... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 0989 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0538 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...central Illinois into west-central Indiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262238Z - 262345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and hail is increasing with new storms north of St Louis. A new WW may be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 2235 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of strong to severe storms (including a few supercells) has evolved along a cold front and remnant outflow boundary over eastern MO and west-central IL. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s F as the air mass has recovered in the wake of an expansive squall line earlier today. Steep mid-level lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the 60s to 70s F are supporting ~1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Favorable buoyancy and increasing lift ahead of the cold front/consolidating outflow should continue to support robust updrafts. 40-50 kt of vertical shear will also allow for storm organization into one or more clusters or bowing segments. Given the favorable parameter space and the potential for organized storms, the risk for damaging wind gusts and hail appears to be increasing. A new weather watch is likely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39559005 39928902 40128781 40118678 39918626 39598603 39198609 38938634 38678757 38658849 38728951 38779001 39559005 Read more

MD 0987 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 320... FOR WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MS...FAR SOUTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0987 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Western/Middle TN...Far North-Central MS...Far Southwest KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 320... Valid 262218Z - 262345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 320 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across western Tennessee is possible, with storms capable of very large hail up to 3" in diameter and tornadoes. Anything that develops may move into middle Tennessee, so trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance across this region. DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery has shown increasing vertical depth within the cumulus field over western TN. The airmass in this region is moderately to strong buoyant, with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE ranging from 3500 J/kg near the MS River to 1500 J/kg across middle TN. This area is currently displaced south and east of the stronger ascent, but there could still be enough low-level convergence to support convective initiation, particularly if convective attempts occur in close proximity to one another. Vertical shear across the region is also very strong and the resulting environment is capable of supporting supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail up to 3" in diameter and tornadoes. A portion of this region is in Tornado Watch 320, but trends will need to be monitored closely to ensure that areas across middle TN are covered if trends merit. ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35718967 36558920 36788837 36578745 35728758 35038801 34598908 34948974 35718967 Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EKN TO 15 SW PIT TO 20 S YNG TO 5 WNW CLE TO 40 SE DTW. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC007-035-055-085-099-133-155-270040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHTABULA CUYAHOGA GEAUGA LAKE MAHONING PORTAGE TRUMBULL PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-270040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST GREENE INDIANA JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MERCER VENANGO WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND WVC049-061-077-093-270040- Read more

WW 318 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV LE 261945Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 318 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Lake Erie * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will continue to move northeast through early this evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and possibly a couple tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Akron OH to 30 miles north of Latrobe PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315...WW 316...WW 317... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW GMJ TO 15 ESE JLN TO 25 NNE SGF TO 10 SW VIH. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-270040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-043-059-067-077-105-109-119-145-153-209-213-225-229- 270040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN DALLAS DOUGLAS GREENE LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON OZARK STONE TANEY WEBSTER WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 319 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 262025Z - 270200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme Northwest Arkansas Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Extreme Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop through the remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. Very large hail, up to 2.5 inches in diameter, will be possible, along with the risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Joplin MO to 50 miles east northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Western Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 262136Z - 262330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Downstream severe thunderstorm watch issuance will be needed within the next 30 minutes to address an approaching MCS. DISCUSSION...A well-organized QLCS continues to push east across the southern Appalachians and has a history of producing damaging (50-60 mph) winds. GOES imagery shows that this line continues to produce robust embedded updrafts despite moving into a region with weaker deep-layer shear. This may be due to compensating effects from higher SBCAPE on the eastern side of the Appalachians. Given the buoyant air mass and steep low-level lapse rates downstream, the severe/damaging wind threat should continue. Watch issuance is likely within the next 30 minutes. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 36608128 37088106 37448101 37768107 38108128 38618145 38918146 39218131 39528076 39718008 39687938 39587886 39357845 39017832 38477815 37577831 36947850 36527873 36217907 36027939 35957966 36058016 36218064 36478110 36608128 Read more

WW 0323 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0323 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 323 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 262320Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 720 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central Illinois South-Central Indiana * Effective this Sunday night from 720 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is forecast to intensify across Illinois and move east into portions of central and southern Indiana during the evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard, although large hail is possible before the evolving thunderstorm band becomes more extensive into the mid evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Mattoon IL to 60 miles east of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320...WW 321...WW 322... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0322 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0322 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0322 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0322 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 322 SEVERE TSTM NC SC 262240Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Carolina and Piedmont Upstate South Carolina * Effective this Sunday evening from 640 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pose a strong to severe thunderstorm risk this evening. Strong mid-level flow will support supercell development with the stronger updrafts. Large hail and severe gusts (55-70 mph) are the primary hazards with the stronger storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Anderson SC to 25 miles southeast of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319...WW 320...WW 321... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Smith Read more

MD 0985 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...317...318... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OHIO INTO EXTREME WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EXTREME EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Ohio into extreme western Pennsylvania...central West Virginia...extreme western Virginia...extreme western North Carolina...extreme eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...317...318... Valid 262100Z - 262230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316, 317, 318 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 316-318. Strong wind gusts are the main threat with a persistent QLCS. Large hail is also possible across far eastern TN and western NC, where supercells are ongoing. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS with a history of wind damage continues to move eastward across the central Appalachians, where surface temperatures are above the 80 F mark. As such, enough buoyancy exists to support strong wind gust potential with the QLCS for at least a few more hours. Along the TN/VA border area, supercell development has recently occurred, where MLCAPE has also climbed to over 2000 J/kg, coincident with 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. Here, large hail is also a concern in addition to strong wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...GSP...MRX...ILN... LAT...LON 40868378 41048339 41388189 41168076 40258053 38378034 36288060 35758069 35638110 35548193 35558269 35538311 35708338 36078328 36408229 36798174 37518150 38848160 39638187 40318236 40868378 Read more

MD 0982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and southern South Dakota into western and northern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262006Z - 262230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail or severe gusts are possible through the remainder of the afternoon. Given the sparse nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Scattered multicellular/briefly transient supercellular thunderstorms have been percolating in intensity over the past few hours, with at least 1 report received of hail over 1 inch in diameter. These storms are developing over marginally buoyant airmass characterized by mainly steep low-level lapse rates. Given limited deep-layer shear, any storm that becomes strong should only do so for short periods of time, and a brief burst of marginally severe hail/wind cannot be completely ruled out. Some storms may merge cold pools later this afternoon, which may increase the severe gust threat slightly. Nonetheless, the severe threat will be isolated and brief at best, precluding the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 41380096 43260295 44390308 44800073 44219942 43209899 42259892 41589983 41380096 Read more