Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z No changes to ongoing forecast. Another day of single-digit relative humidity will occur across portions of the Southwest. This dry air will once again serve as the backdrop for elevated fire weather conditions. Winds should be less than on Tuesday, but should be sufficient for elevated fire weather conditions. The most likely area is portions of western New Mexico and far eastern Arizona. ..Marsh.. 05/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0114 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again on Wednesday across western New Mexico. The southern periphery of an upper-level wave is forecast to shift east into the Four Corners region by Wednesday afternoon. Although the surface mass response across the southern High Plains will be modest, winds should increase into the upper teens by mid afternoon across much of the Four Corners region. Very dry (single-digit RH) conditions will persist across the western half of NM, which should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Similar wind speeds and RH minima are expected further north into eastern UT and western CO, but recent fuel analyses suggests fuels are not as receptive as compared to NM, which precludes a northward expansion of the risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281832Z - 282000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through the afternoon, with a possibly more rapid uptick in storm intensification for cells interacting with an outflow boundary. These storms will initially have a damaging gust/hail threat, though a tornado cannot be ruled out with storms interacting with the boundary. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Rapidly deepening CU have developed over the Trans Pecos region in Texas, atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Based on the latest RAP forecast soundings, the boundary layer extends to somewhere between 600-500 mb, so convective initiation will result in high-based thunderstorms. Given the 9-10+ C/km low-level lapse rates in the boundary layer, any of the more intense storms that form could produce dry downbursts, and a dry microburst capable of 65+ kt gusts cannot be completely ruled out. As the storms progress eastward, they will move into an increasingly moister and more unstable airmass. At the same time, they will interact with a southwestward-moving outflow boundary generated by an earlier MCS. Enhanced lift along this boundary may support an uptick in thunderstorm intensity for any updrafts crossing this boundary. Elongated hodographs and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear suggest that multicells and splitting supercells will be the main modes of convection, with large hail possible. Some stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter. It is unclear precisely when an uptick in greater severe coverage will occur. Nonetheless, the CAPE/shear parameter space and synoptic environment suggest that an appreciable severe threat will unfold at some point this afternoon, when a WW issuance will ultimately be necessary. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31160420 31940359 32250235 31890110 31280067 30550068 30070102 30030226 30050313 30400407 31160420 Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0346 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0346 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0346 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BPT TO 20 S ESF. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-282040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ432-435-436-450-452-455-282040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALCASIEU LAKE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0342 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 342 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE VCT TO 20 WNW HOU TO 40 NE HOU TO 30 NW LCH. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC039-071-157-167-245-321-361-481-282040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON JEFFERSON MATAGORDA ORANGE WHARTON GMZ335-355-430-282040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM SABINE LAKE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Wisconsin into northern IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281802Z - 282130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected throughout the afternoon. Scattered strong storms may occasionally produce gusty winds and hail. The severe threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a gradually deepening CU field over southern WI/northern IL, which precedes a 500 mb vort max that is approaching from eastern IA. As the vort max progresses eastward, the combination of increasing deep-layer ascent and diurnal heating will support an increase in thunderstorm development through the afternoon. These storms will develop in an environment characterized by 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, but mediocre deep-layer effective shear and only around 500 J/kg MLCAPE. As such, storms may produce a couple instances of strong, gusty winds or hail. While a few instances of severe hail/wind cannot be ruled out, the severe threat is expected to remain sparse, and a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43369183 43809131 43588965 43098854 42128773 41648764 41328822 41568944 42009061 42459147 43369183 Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0345 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0345 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0345 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1044 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1044 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281745Z - 281915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds and hail to near 1 inch diameter are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is deepening across parts of western Maine early this afternoon in an area of low-level convergence. Stronger heating in cloud breaks has occurred over this area, and dewpoints in the mid 60s F are supporting modest destabilization. Vertical shear suggest marginal supercells will be possible, though weak instability will largely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, cool temperatures aloft and elongated hodographs imply hail will be possible with the stronger cores, in addition to strong gusts around 45-60 mph. Isolated coverage and the marginal nature of the severe risk will preclude watch issuance. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 46706859 46386805 45726808 45216826 44976847 44146967 44297014 44497039 44887031 45706970 46676891 46706859 Read more