Severe Storms

MD 1043 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL NC AND THE OUTER BANKS
Mesoscale Discussion 1043 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...coastal NC and the Outer Banks Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281731Z - 281930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail are possible through the afternoon/early evening. DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite early this afternoon along the North Carolina coast, and storms will likely develop in the next couple of hours. This activity is developing along a weak surface boundary. Strong heating and a very moist boundary layer (dewpoints 68-73 F) are contributing to MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. Stronger effective shear will remain north and west of the area, but 20-30 kt should be sufficient for organized updrafts. Locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph will be possible, along with small hail in stronger cells. A watch is not expected given the marginal nature of the severe risk and storms likely to move quickly offshore. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34127874 35717592 35727538 35157524 34387627 33647732 33457827 33587872 34127874 Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0344 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0344 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0344 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0344 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1041 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1041 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southern Kansas into western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281709Z - 281915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of severe hail may accompany the stronger storms that manage to persist over the next few hours. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells continue to progress across far southwestern KS into western OK, most of which have a history of severe hail, including a left-splitting storm in KS that has produced 2+ inch diameter hail. These storms continue to traverse an elevated buoyancy gradient, characterized by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE (most of which is above 700 mb per latest RAP forecast soundings). Strong unidirectional speed shear above 700 mb is contributing to straight, elongated hodographs and around 40 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, any storms that persist within this CAPE/shear parameter space will have the potential to produce some hail (perhaps severe) over the next few hours, especially if any left-splitting supercells can materialize. However, there are some indications the ongoing storms may gradually weaken with time as they approach more stable air left behind by an earlier MCS. As such, any remaining severe threat may be brief and localized, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36169988 36869943 37329877 37349838 37009779 36529738 35969711 35119692 34319705 34249707 33959764 34019839 34209866 34579922 36169988 Read more

MD 1042 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342... FOR SOUTHEAST TX INTO FAR SOUTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...southeast TX into far southwest LA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342... Valid 281719Z - 281845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342 continues. SUMMARY...Intensifying bow will move across southeast Texas to far southwest Louisiana over the next 1-2 hours. Severe gusts to 80 mph will be possible with these storms. DISCUSSION...A bowing line of storms has increased in intensity recently, and is now moving southeast around 45-50 kt. Strong to extreme instability is in place ahead of this convection amid a very moist boundary-layer and steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km. A recently measured gust to 67 mph was noted at KUTS. Expected severe gusts of 65-80 mph are possible within the apex of bowing segment over the next 1-2 hours as storms approach the coast. ..Leitman.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31399526 30629371 29879336 29449370 29319452 29719502 30359562 30789587 31019585 31399526 Read more

WW 0343 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 343 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 343 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-097-099-101-113-115- 281940- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION VERNON GMZ432-435-436-450-452-455-281940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CALCASIEU LAKE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0342 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 342 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE AUS TO 40 SSE CLL TO 20 E UTS TO 5 NNE LFK. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 342 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-039-071-089-149-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-321-339-351- 361-373-407-457-473-481-281940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BRAZORIA CHAMBERS COLORADO FAYETTE FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE POLK SAN JACINTO TYLER WALLER WHARTON GMZ335-355-430-281940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE GALVESTON BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT TX OUT 20 NM Read more

MD 1040 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1040 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...southwest to south-central Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281701Z - 281830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms may persist southeast across southwest and south-central Louisiana this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing near the TX/LA border at midday may persist southeast through the afternoon along a surface boundary. A very moist (mid 70s to near 80 F dewpoints) boundary-layer exists across the area beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (8 C/km) and strong vertical shear (40+ kt effective shear). While this cluster of storms is less intense compared to early in the morning, the downstream environment remains favorable for organized severe. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed soon if current trends persist/intensify. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31489379 31379292 30769175 30309103 29909068 29389075 29159135 29369264 29629367 29879397 30889413 31489379 Read more

MD 1039 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1039 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Areas affected...central into southeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281549Z - 281745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon. Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will likely be needed soon. DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the region soon. ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358 30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726 29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910 30519909 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 Read more