Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel ridge will remain in place across the Southwest, supporting continued warm/dry conditions across the region. Along the western portion of the ridge, a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds across parts of southern AZ, southwest NM, and far west TX -- where fuels are receptive to fire spread. The combination of mid/upper 90s surface temperatures and single-digit RH amid the breezy surface winds will favor elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a weak/subtle shortwave trough will track northward along the western periphery of the ridge, promoting isolated high-based thunderstorms across parts of southern NM and far west TX during the afternoon -- given sufficient midlevel moisture atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Limited rainfall is expected with these storms, owing to a deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions will be possible. ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with severe gusts and hail, will be possible on Sunday across the southern Plains and central High Plains, and in northern parts of the Intermountain West. ...Southern Plains and Central High Plains... An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies on Sunday, as surface high pressure builds southward into the Great Plains. An associated front is forecast to move southward across Oklahoma to near the Red River. Moderate instability appears likely to develop in the vicinity of the front from southwestern Oklahoma westward into west Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected near the front during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent is forecast to be weak, steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal threat for strong wind gusts around peak heating. Hail could also occur in parts of west Texas. Further northwest into northeastern New Mexico and east-central Colorado, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain during the afternoon. These storms will move slowly eastward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon and early evening, where model forecasts show a north-to-south corridor of instability. Along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest that lapse rates will be steep, and that deep-layer shear will be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Snake River Valley... A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, as a surface low deepens near the Great Salt Lake. To the north of the surface low, an east-to-west axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast across southern Idaho, where some models develop a small pocket of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperature warm, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Snake River Valley of southeastern Idaho. Forecast soundings over this area at 21Z on Sunday have MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and hail during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...Central Plains... Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period. While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO. Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as 18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells; however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave. These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central KS during the late evening hours. ...Ozarks Region... Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for storm initiation. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024 Read more