Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A mid to upper-level ridge and zonal flow over the higher latitudes will persist through most of the extended period across the western and central CONUS respectively, with broad, cyclonic flow in place to the east and northeast. This pattern will maintain localized instances of elevated fire spread conditions across the increasingly receptive fuels found within the Southwest. Through the end of this weekend, a southern stream mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward out of the Baja Peninsula region under the upper ridge, traversing far southern AZ and NM. The accompanying surface pressure gradient across this region may yield at least a short period of sustained westerly winds greater than 15-20 mph, where minimum RH will remain in the single digits. Low probabilities have been introduced for this area D3/Sunday. Further north across the Great Basin, a mid-level shortwave trough and moisture atop a deeply mixed lower troposphere may aid enough ascent for instances of dry thunderstorms. However, less receptive fuels across this region preclude the need for a Dry Thunder area at this time. By early next week, a mid to upper-level cyclone is expected to remain off the southern CA coast for a few days before moving onshore late in the week around D7/Thursday-D8/Friday. Increasing mid to low-level flow will eventually impact the Great Basin and Southwest as this occurs. Confidence in the timing of this feature, however, and details of receptive fuels overlapping meteorological fire spread conditions is too unclear at this time to introduce any low probabilities through the end of the week. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 ..THORNTON..06/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-031-041-047-063-071-077-079-081-085- 089-091-093-103-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-139-141-143-149- 163-171-175-183-185-072240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HAYES HOLT HOOKER HOWARD KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON MADISON MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY WHEELER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NV/UT INTO SOUTHERN ID
Mesoscale Discussion 1189 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NV/UT into southern ID Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071922Z - 072145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur this afternoon with high-based thunderstorms. Watch issuance is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across parts of northeast NV into western UT, as a shortwave trough continues to move eastward across CA/NV. Robust daytime heating has allowed surface temperatures to generally increase into the 80s. Amid steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, a well-mixed boundary layer should encourage some enhancement to convective downdraft winds as DCAPE increases into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts around 50-70 mph may occur with any of the more robust cores that can develop and be sustained this afternoon and early evening. Occasional marginally severe hail also appears possible, with around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear supporting modest updraft organization. Limited instability and low-level moisture, with MLCAPE generally forecast to remain less than 1000 J/kg, should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Accordingly, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 39561686 40361663 41621594 42121514 42491426 42531313 42201182 41871122 41241117 40501113 39961188 39311299 38741560 38941661 39561686 Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/07/24 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-031-041-047-071-077-079-081-089-091- 093-103-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-139-141-143-149-163-171- 175-183-185-072140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CHERRY CUSTER DAWSON GARFIELD GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOLT HOOKER HOWARD KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON MADISON MERRICK NANCE PIERCE PLATTE POLK ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY WHEELER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...20z Update... An Enhanced Risk of severe storms continues across the central Plains. Thunderstorm development is underway across north central Nebraska. Further thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon, posing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Later in the evening, upscale growth is anticipated with an increasing risk of damaging wind through the evening. No changes were needed to the Enhanced with this outlook. See MCD1188 for more information. The Marginal Risk was expanded westward into Colorado to account for potential for additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon/evening with the potential for damaging winds. Within the Marginal Risk across the Great Basin, a 5% risk for hail was added with this outlook. Activity within this region has been more cellular, with potential for damaging wind and a few instances of severe hail given deep layer shear around 20-30 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates. See MCD 1189 for more information. ..Thornton/Goss.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. Read more