Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward central Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur across the Ozarks vicinity. ...CO/KS... Early morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough over northern UT. This feature will track eastward today, spreading large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture into the high plains of CO. A combination of daytime heating and the approaching upper system will lead to scattered thunderstorms by early afternoon from southeast WY into the foothills of northern CO. Storms will intensify and track east-southeastward in the vicinity of a surface boundary that will extend into western KS. Supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds will be possible for the first few hours of the event, with upscale organization into a linear MCS expected as the storms move into KS. A consensus of CAM solutions show the potential for rather widespread damaging winds during the evening before storms weaken over central KS after midnight. ...Central/Southern MO... A large but decaying MCS is currently moving across MO. Recent model guidance suggests that rapid moisture return will occur behind this system, with a reservoir of low 70s dewpoints and strong afternoon heating expected. This will yield MLCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with faster westerly flow aloft. Low-level forcing mechanisms will be weak, and there is uncertainty where the axis of convective development will occur. But it appears likely that scattered afternoon supercell storms will be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/08/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 6... Over the last few runs, medium-range model forecasts have become in much better agreement during the mid-week. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as another trough moves eastward across the southern Plains. The models suggest that there will be potential for strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in parts of Texas and Oklahoma. This potential for strong thunderstorms moves eastward into the Ark-La-Tex on Wednesday. A more appreciable severe threat could develop in parts of the eastern Dakotas and upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, as a mid-level jet translates eastward through the region. A 15 percent contour has been added from western Minnesota and eastern North Dakota southward into north-central Nebraska, where model consensus suggests the environment will be most favorable for severe storms during the late afternoon and early evening on Wednesday. Uncertainty related to the most favorable area for severe weather increases on Thursday. The ECMWF suggests that the greatest threat will be in the upper Mississippi Valley. Other solutions suggest the potential threat area could be further southwest into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. The plan is to give the models a few more runs before adding a 15 percent contour, so that confidence can be higher concerning the severe threat positioning. ...Friday/Day 7 and Saturday/Day 8... On Friday and Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the central and northern U.S. A moist and unstable airmass may be located beneath the ridge across much of the Great Plains and Missouri Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible each day, mostly concentrated near outflow boundaries and in areas that heat up the most. The details concerning these factors remains very uncertain at this extended range. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A shortwave trough, and an associated cold front, are forecast to move through the northern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will likely be in the 50s F from northeast Colorado northward into western South Dakota, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will take place, with storms moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Tuesday have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with low to mid-level lapse rates near 7 C/km. This should be enough to support a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail and a few strong wind gusts are expected. ...Southern High Plains... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move eastward across the southern High Plains on Monday. Ahead of the associated trough, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of the southern High Plains. Model forecasts generally increase MLCAPE into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon, and show potential for convective development. The greatest storm coverage could be near the upper low where large-scale ascent will be maximized. More isolated storms could develop further south near the instability axis in the vicinity of Midland. Forecast soundings at 21Z near Midland have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This would support a hail threat with rotating cells that develop in the late afternoon and early evening. Steep low-level lapse rates could also support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts. ..Broyles.. 06/08/2024 Read more

MD 1200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 1200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080638Z - 080815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms across southeast Kansas may produce isolated damaging wind gusts as it moves southeast this morning. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across eastern Kansas has become somewhat better organized in the past 30 minutes. The more outflow dominant appearance on 0.5 degree reflectivity from KTWX and KEAX has become better balanced and subsequently, echo tops have increased. This is likely related to the strengthening low-level jet (50 knots per INX VWP) across the region. A dry airmass across Missouri has triggered a quick demise of stronger storms that move out of Kansas. However, there remains a corridor of better moisture and buoyancy across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma with modest moisture in southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. This may support strong/occasionally severe wind gusts with the squall line as it moves southeast through the morning hours. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38119639 38219582 38389531 38489515 38499481 38329439 37969399 37139366 36439355 36059407 36049477 36189555 36649624 37249661 38119639 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... Warm/dry conditions will continue across the Southwest beneath a persistent midlevel ridge -- where fuels continue to dry. Across southern AZ/NM and the western Trans-Pecos, a modest surface pressure gradient will favor breezy west-southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. These winds, coupled with 5-10 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels across the area). ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more