Severe Storms

WW 446 TORNADO IA IL WI 222015Z - 230100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 446 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon along a boundary extending from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Favorable winds aloft will promote supercell storms, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Waterloo IA to 30 miles north of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1373 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST NY...CT...RI...CENTRAL MA
Mesoscale Discussion 1373 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Southeast NY...CT...RI...central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221951Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will maximize and become focused over a mesoscale area over the next 2-3 hours (mainly prior to 23 UTC/7 pm EDT). Because of the small spatiotemporal window of the severe risk area, a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...An organized linear band of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue to move east-southeastward to the southern New England coast over the next several hours. Echo top trends over the past 2 hours has shown tops increase from 40 kft to 50 kft. This convective trend is an indication that 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (buoyancy) has become realized by the stronger storms over CT. The moderately strong westerly 2-6 km flow (30 kt) will support updraft/cold pool organization as this activity moves through a very moist airmass (low to mid 70s surface dewpoints). Brief/transient rotation with updrafts encountering relatively backed flow (south-southeasterly at the surface) may aid in mesoscyclonic rotation and perhaps hail potential (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) with discrete storms ahead of the line. Otherwise, wind damage potential due to strong-severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary risk with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41287250 41017342 41137388 41497413 41787393 41967282 42347197 42117151 41917115 41587113 41427118 41287250 Read more

MD 1374 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1374 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...north-central Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222020Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The potential for a brief tornado and/or localized 50-65 mph gust will focus in a mesoscale area northwest of Saginaw Bay over the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the southern end of a band of low-topped convection moving across northern Lower MI. Lightning was recently observed in the past 15 minutes as the storm moves east along a west-east oriented stationary front. Along and south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70-72 deg F range. Ample deep-layer shear and adequate buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will seemingly support a continuation and maintenance of this storm as it moves east. An isolated risk for a 50-65 mph gust and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this storm. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX... LAT...LON 44188438 44218367 44108352 43988361 43908374 43958446 44088450 44188438 Read more

WW 0446 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0446 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 22 20:01:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Scattered damaging winds are possible over southern New England through early evening. ...20Z Update... The severe weather forecast largely appears on-track with only a couple of adjustments based on latest observational/guidance trends. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms should develop farther southwest in southeast MT and northwest SD within a similar moderate westerly mid-level flow regime to ND. Across east-central Lower MI, a confined corridor of enhanced low-level SRH persists ahead of a low-topped convective rain cluster. There is still potential for this activity to deepen into thunderstorms amid MLCAPE near 500 J/kg with a low-probability tornado/wind threat, before spreading into Saginaw Bay. To its south, warm mid-level temperatures/weak lapse rates yielding meager buoyancy suggest that upstream thunderstorms across the Upper MS Valley should weaken as they cross southern LK MI this evening. Please see MCD 1373 for short-term discussion on the southern New England severe threat. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. Read more