Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with some adjustments needed based on recent trends in guidance. Confidence remains fairly high in the potential for elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon across portions of the greater Pacific Northwest region. Drier/windier solutions continue to hint at the potential for areas of critical fire weather conditions - specifically in the lee of the Warner Mountains along the OR/NV border and within the Snake River Plain. However, ensemble guidance suggests this potential may remain fairly localized. Elevated conditions will likely materialize across parts of western WY as well, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are only modestly receptive over this region. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0101 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through Washington during the afternoon. A strong pressure gradient will develop as a surface low deepens in the northern Rockies into Alberta/Saskatchewan. ...Northwest... Strong westerly surface winds across the Cascades will promote downslope drying into the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Given some push of marine air to the east, it is possible that RH will not become overly low. However, generally dry fuels and 15-20 mph winds will support an elevated fire weather risk. ...OR/CA/NV... The surface pressure gradient and mid-level winds will be weaker than farther north, but confidence in RH of 10-20% is much higher. Winds could locally approach 20 mph, but will more broadly be around 15 mph. Locally elevated conditions are expected to the lee of the southern Cascades and northern Sierra. ...Snake River Plain... On the fringe of the strong mid-level winds, favorably oriented with the Valley, winds of 15-25 mph appear possible. RH of 15-20% can be expected during the afternoon. Though meteorological conditions could become critical, fuels are not sufficiently dry to support more than an elevated risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast, mainly during Sunday afternoon. ...Northeast... A relatively more active severe weather day is anticipated on Sunday afternoon with increasing confidence in scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes across parts of the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will track east to the Saint Lawrence Valley by Sunday afternoon, as a more amplified upstream trough digs across the Great Lakes. Multiple belts of enhanced low-level flow will likely accompany each impulse, with the stronger strengthening occurring with the secondary wave. A deepening surface cyclone should track across southeast ON/south QC. While mid-level lapse rates will be weak, rich low-level moisture will yield moderate buoyancy with a broadening plume of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg by afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance is fairly consistent in suggesting that primary warm-sector development will occur with the lead wave by late morning into the afternoon. A secondary round of convection accompanying the cold front trailing southwestward should occur downwind of the Lower Great Lakes during the late afternoon to early evening. The most favorable parameter space appears centered on parts of the Hudson Valley through the central portion of New England. Here, low-level hodographs are progged to be most enlarged in combination with a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. This may yield a few discrete supercells with a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Storm mergers and eventual clustering should maintain a threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds as convection approaches the coast. The degree of destabilization in the wake of the lead activity is somewhat uncertain. But moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear should yield a threat for scattered damaging winds with late-day convection as the cold front shifts east of the Lower Great Lakes. ...OH Valley to Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity... The cold front trailing from the New England system will move across parts of the Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along/ahead of the front within a moderately unstable and modestly sheared environment. A few stronger cells or small clusters will be possible within this regime, with a threat of sporadic damaging winds and small to marginally severe hail. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the level 2-SLGT risk southwestward in the Upper OH Valley where confidence is greater in storm coverage and resultant damaging wind threat. ...East MT into northwest ND... A shortwave trough should move east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. A deepening surface cyclone will accompany this wave over the southern AB and move into SK, with a cold front trailing southward into MT. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND Sunday night. ...Northwest KS/southwest NE... Hot temperatures along a lee trough should yield at least isolated late afternoon thunderstorm development. A deeply mixed boundary layer with modest mid-level northwesterlies could foster small hail-loaded downdrafts capable of a few strong microbursts into early evening. ...North WI/northeast MN... On the backside of the Great Lakes mid/upper trough, favorable speed shear within the northwesterly flow regime should yield an elongated hodograph. Forecast soundings suggest mid-level lapse rates will be weak as the thermal trough shifts east. But isolated, low-topped convection might produce small hail and locally gusty winds, centered on late afternoon. ..Grams.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more