Severe Storms

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 23 16:19:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024 Read more