Severe Storms

WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0449 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-007-017-031-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-232140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-232140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH Read more

WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 448 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-007-017-031-232140- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN OXFORD YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-232140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX WORCESTER NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-232140- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND FAR EAST NY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN NORTHEAST MT/NORTHWEST ND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only appreciable categorical change with this outlook has been to begin reducing severe risks behind the cold front in OH to the MS/OH River confluence. Otherwise, have maintained the rest of the categorical severe as-is. Please see MCD 1385 for short-term forecast information across parts of the Northeast. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. Read more

MD 1384 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 448... FOR EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
Mesoscale Discussion 1384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...eastern New York...Vermont...and western New Hampshire. Concerning...Tornado Watch 448... Valid 231837Z - 232000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues. SUMMARY...Storms forming across eastern New York into north-central Vermont have the greatest severe weather potential over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed from eastern New York to north-central Vermont. These storms have developed within a locally more favorable environment featuring southerly surface winds and temperatures in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. In close proximity to the eastward/northeastward advancing warm front and in terrain favored locations where more backed winds can remain, a greater tornado threat may exist through the afternoon. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42557422 43777374 44557306 44707245 44757180 43747171 42517196 42197322 42177383 42557422 Read more

MD 1383 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231742Z - 231945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front. Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear) roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours. ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL... ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 40268200 41078095 41647995 42107886 42557771 42607687 42437624 42137602 41737607 40937729 40347822 39857898 39158017 38068234 37938362 38138434 38578444 39018438 39378380 39738286 40268200 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent trends in guidance. Ensemble solutions continue to suggest low probability for critical fire weather conditions, but reasonably high potential for elevated conditions within the highlighted regions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will move into the northern Rockies and Plains through the day on Monday. A surface front will have moved through the Northwest and stalled in the northern Great Basin. Surface winds from the lee of the northern Sierra into the Snake River Plain will be modestly enhanced ahead of the front. Furthermore, lingering stronger mid-level winds will remain across southern Idaho. These features will promote dry and breezy conditions during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be possible. Winds of 15-20 mph can be expected, though speeds approaching 25 mph may occur in the Snake River Plain. Elevated fire weather is expected in these areas for a few hours during the afternoon. Locally critical is again possible in the Snake Plain, but fuels will continue to mitigate greater risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent trends in guidance. Ensemble solutions continue to suggest low probability for critical fire weather conditions, but reasonably high potential for elevated conditions within the highlighted regions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will move into the northern Rockies and Plains through the day on Monday. A surface front will have moved through the Northwest and stalled in the northern Great Basin. Surface winds from the lee of the northern Sierra into the Snake River Plain will be modestly enhanced ahead of the front. Furthermore, lingering stronger mid-level winds will remain across southern Idaho. These features will promote dry and breezy conditions during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be possible. Winds of 15-20 mph can be expected, though speeds approaching 25 mph may occur in the Snake River Plain. Elevated fire weather is expected in these areas for a few hours during the afternoon. Locally critical is again possible in the Snake Plain, but fuels will continue to mitigate greater risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent trends in guidance. Ensemble solutions continue to suggest low probability for critical fire weather conditions, but reasonably high potential for elevated conditions within the highlighted regions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will move into the northern Rockies and Plains through the day on Monday. A surface front will have moved through the Northwest and stalled in the northern Great Basin. Surface winds from the lee of the northern Sierra into the Snake River Plain will be modestly enhanced ahead of the front. Furthermore, lingering stronger mid-level winds will remain across southern Idaho. These features will promote dry and breezy conditions during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be possible. Winds of 15-20 mph can be expected, though speeds approaching 25 mph may occur in the Snake River Plain. Elevated fire weather is expected in these areas for a few hours during the afternoon. Locally critical is again possible in the Snake Plain, but fuels will continue to mitigate greater risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more