Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ..Wendt.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Due to a relatively wide range of potential outcomes on D1/Monday, uncertainty remains quite high regarding storm evolution on Tuesday. However, some organized severe-thunderstorm potential remains evident from parts of the central Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some threat could eventually spread southward into parts of the southern Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley. An MCS may be ongoing Tuesday morning somewhere across the central Great Lakes vicinity, with other areas of elevated convection possibly ongoing across the region. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany the morning convection. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/Minnesota on Tuesday is forecast to take on a west-to-east orientation from eastern NE into central/northern IA to southern WI/northern IL, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 3000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, midlevel west-northwesterly flow may remain rather modest across the warm sector, but strong enough to support sufficient effective shear for some storm organization. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify through the day, with isolated to widely scattered development also possible along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across western KS. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support hail potential with any more discrete convection. Some clustering/upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains quite uncertain at this time. The current Slight Risk is a composite of multiple possible scenarios, and some adjustments will likely be required depending on guidance trends and evolution of D1/Monday convection. ..Dean.. 06/24/2024 Read more