Severe Storms

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILM TO 45 SE EWN TO HSE. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 451 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/00Z. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-250000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ154-156-158-231-250-252-250000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 241705Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern North Carolina, in a hot and humid environment. Sufficiently strong winds aloft will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 30 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WESTERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Minnesota...southwestern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242218Z - 250015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sustained vigorous thunderstorm development remains uncertain, but seems more likely after sunset than before. Trends are being closely monitored, with rapid thunderstorm intensification possible, including potential for supercells posing a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging downbursts and a risk for tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As a weak mid-level perturbation progresses through broader-scale anticyclonic flow across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region, modest low-level warm advection has become focused east-southeast of a surface low over northeastern South Dakota, across southern Minnesota and adjacent portions of northeastern Iowa/southwestern Wisconsin. This forcing for ascent appears likely to be contributing to the recent thunderstorm initiation near/north of the Interstate 90 corridor of southern Minnesota. The boundary-layer is characterized by seasonably high moisture content and large CAPE beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, but a plume of very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air is in the process of overspreading much of the region, and some further warming near/below the 700 mb level may still occur into early evening. While it still appears probable that inhibition associated with the warm, dry air aloft will tend to suppress this convection, this is not entirely certain, and the environment is conditionally supportive of intense organized convection give the extreme potential instability. Higher-based ongoing convective development, rooted in warm advection closer to the northeastern periphery of the elevated mixed-layer air, east-southeast of Brainerd, is also being monitored. As this spreads into northwestern Wisconsin this evening, it might undergo considerable further intensification in the presence of increasing lift and instability near the nose of a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (30-50 kt around 850 mb). ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44719324 45239319 46009364 46479382 46569224 45879048 44248951 43559016 43029111 43229272 43819399 44719324 Read more

MD 1397 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and eastern/southeastern North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 242231Z - 250000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front through this evening. Large hail up to 1.75-2.50" in diameter and damaging wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite and radar imagery suggest thunderstorm development will continue to occur along a cold front extending northeast to southwest across portions of far northwestern MN and eastern ND. A moderate to extreme instability axis extends along and ahead of this cold front, where temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s, and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s exist beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. VAD profiles and objective analysis across this region indicate sufficient deep layer effective shear (40-55 kt) is already in place. Storm organization and a few supercells appear likely along this axis through this evening. Large hail will initially be possible with the more discrete thunderstorms that develop, before cell mergers occur with an accompanying damaging wind threat later this evening as instability wanes. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49289478 49359501 49359514 49069518 48999616 48659642 47999797 47659849 46969846 46569837 46129801 46249736 47259559 48009426 48739425 48819460 49289478 Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ILM TO 45 SE EWN TO HSE. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 451 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 25/00Z. ..KERR..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC019-129-141-250000- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRUNSWICK NEW HANOVER PENDER AMZ154-156-158-231-250-252-250000- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE S OF CAPE HATTERAS NC TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF OCRACOKE INLET NC TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT TO 20 NM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NC TO SURF CITY NC OUT TO 20 NM CROATAN AND ROANOKE SOUNDS COASTAL WATERS FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 451 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 241705Z - 250000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across eastern North Carolina, in a hot and humid environment. Sufficiently strong winds aloft will result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the most intense cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 30 miles south southeast of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 452 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 242250Z - 250500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest and North-Central Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Developing supercells along/ahead of a cold front should initially pose a threat for isolated very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter. With time this evening, severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph may become more of a concern as thunderstorms potentially develop into one or more small clusters as they spread eastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Fargo ND to 45 miles west northwest of International Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1395 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242059Z - 242300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds are possible this afternoon and evening over the Central High Plains. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed over the high terrain in an environment characterized by large surface T/Td spreads, deeply-mixed inverted-v boundary layer profiles, and 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear in the southern portion of the MD area, increasing to 40-45 kts further north in the Black Hills. These storms are expected to continue eastward into the High Plains, where buoyancy increases slightly with eastward extent. Given the dry environment and weak vertical shear, a few damaging wind gusts from dry downdrafts are possible with ongoing convection, and additional development may be possible with interacting thunderstorm outflows. Further north in the Black Hills, convective development is less certain, but better combinations of buoyancy and shear indicate potential for an isolated hail and damaging wind threat if a storm develops out of the current cu field. Watch issuance is not likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44890339 44860289 44580245 44260226 43880219 43320214 42890207 42500192 41960142 41650117 41250090 40860062 40490042 40090026 39600017 39350027 39070043 38870060 38730085 38680119 38670161 38670181 38830205 38980218 39260237 39470253 39680266 39730271 40000320 40260353 40760405 41200450 41600478 42000499 42300513 42800530 43460551 43910558 44270551 44540514 44710477 44800434 44830385 44890339 Read more

MD 1394 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451... Valid 241931Z - 242100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms will continue through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...A cluster/broken line of storms continues to move southeast across eastern North Carolina. An unstable airmass featuring 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will continue to support these storms as they move east. Storms have moved south of the stronger mid-level flow, but the MHX VWP still shows around 30 knots of westerly flow which should be sufficient for multicell/transient supercell organization. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat through the afternoon and the threat is expected to end once storms move into the Atlantic. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34157787 34917830 35687757 36287568 36107540 35697532 35197544 35127573 34917616 34757634 34507648 34557669 34587694 34507722 34247754 34157787 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Confidence in critical fire weather conditions remains limited through the second half of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. However, at least low-end fire concerns are expected to persist across parts of the Great Basin. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - northern Great Basin... Recent GOES water-vapor imagery reveals a upper low over the northern Pacific that is gradually approaching the Pacific Northwest. Concurrently, mid-level moisture is slowly streaming northward through central/southern CA. A combination of increasing moisture and ascent ahead of the wave should promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Basin beginning early D3/Wed. Increasing low-level winds within the dry slot of the maturing low will promote dry/windy conditions in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada. Recent ensemble guidance continues to show a signal for elevated to critical fire weather conditions across northwest NV and adjacent portions of OR; however, the extent of the fire weather threat may be conditional on morning rainfall amounts and sufficient clearing in the wake of morning showers/thunderstorms. The mid-level jet max is forecast to pass over the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies around peak heating on D4/Thur. The westerly downslope flow regime across much of NV and southern ID should continue to promote dry conditions, especially across areas that receive little rainfall in the preceding 24 hours. Ensemble solutions show a strong signal for 15+ mph winds, and drier solutions - notably the deterministic GFS as well as a few GEFS members - suggest winds may reach 20-30 mph as strong mid-level flow mixes to the surface. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible. ...D6/Saturday to D7/Sunday - Great Basin... Long-range ensembles and cluster analyses continue to suggest that a second, perhaps more amplified, upper wave will approach the Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin during the D6/Sat to D7/Sun period. While spread in guidance is noted (and expected at this range), the overall synoptic regime implies increasing rain chances for the Pacific Northwest with fire weather potential across central NV into UT where drier/windier conditions are probable. Trends in this system will be monitored for potential fire concerns heading into the upcoming weekend. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more