Severe Storms

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC011-015-057-067-071-073-095-099-103-109-123-131-141-143-155- 161-175-179-187-195-203-260240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUREAU CARROLL FULTON HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KNOX LA SALLE LEE MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WOODFORD IAC001-003-007-009-029-031-039-045-049-051-053-057-071-077-085- 087-095-099-101-103-107-111-115-117-121-123-125-129-133-135-137- 139-145-153-155-157-159-163-165-173-175-177-179-181-183-185- 260240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CEDAR CLARKE CLINTON DALLAS Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E CDR TO 25 SSW PHP TO 30 E PHP. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-015-017-031-071-075-089-091-103-115-149-171-183-260240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHERRY GARFIELD GRANT HOLT HOOKER KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THOMAS WHEELER SDC007-095-121-123-260240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT MELLETTE TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

MD 1400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 250150Z - 250345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation appears increasingly probable during the next hour or two, with a substantive further increase and intensification of storms through 10 PM-1 AM CDT. Initial storms may pose a risk for large hail, before the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts increases overnight. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within strengthening warm advection across central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. The warm frontal zone has shifted northward some over the past several hours, but convection has been struggling to overcome inhibition associated with very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air, despite further low-level moistening. However, as mid/upper flow transitions from broadly anticyclonic to broadly cyclonic, and low-level warm advection strengthens further in response to an intensifying low-level jet, lift appears likely to increasingly overcome inhibition. This probably will allow for a substantive increase in thunderstorm development through the 03-06Z time frame. Initial development may include evolving elevated supercells posing a risk for large hail, before activity gradually consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster with increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts later tonight. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46329383 46389212 45518962 44379066 44759290 45539427 46329383 Read more

MD 1399 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far east central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 250053Z - 250230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threats of large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter and wind gusts near 60-70 mph continue with thunderstorms along a cold front this evening. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front over northern MN. These thunderstorms are within an environment where persistent deep layer shear vectors around 50 kt in magnitude are oriented nearly normal to the cold frontal forcing, suggesting discrete organized updrafts will continue through this evening. An instability axis also extends southwest to northeast along the cold front, with the most recent surface objective analysis indicating around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Further south along the front, several convective initiation attempts have occurred, but maintenance has been unsuccessful. This may be due to slightly warmer mid to upper-level temperatures and weaker flow aloft being present there. However, attempts are still ongoing and additional thunderstorm development with southward extent cannot be ruled out. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, the tornado threat is non-zero based on the latest RAP forecast curved hodographs through 1 km, although slightly veered surface flow ahead of the front should limit the overall ambient SRH. ..Barnes.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47299748 47669719 48299613 48869520 48989465 48779464 48579381 48659322 48639282 48549261 48069314 46869441 46659669 46649724 47299748 Read more

MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250001Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification will be possible over the next couple of hours across portions of far southwestern SD and northwestern NE. Isolated hail up to 1.00 to 1.75" in diameter and severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible with the more robust updrafts. DISCUSSION...Both recent satellite and radar imagery indicate updraft intensification is occurring with thunderstorms along a surface trough extending northwest to southeast across the higher terrain. This is also where a mid to upper-level thermal trough exits, coincident with stronger flow aloft. Deep layer effective shear around 35-45 kt will continue to support some updraft organization through this evening. In addition, downstream observations/objective surface analysis suggest these thunderstorms will move into a more buoyant air mass, although CINH does quickly increase further east across much of central NE/SD. The main threat through this evening will likely be severe wind gusts, considering large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads/inverted V profiles, especially with merging thunderstorms and deepening cold pools. Given the expected small area of severe weather concern, weak forcing aloft, and loss of diurnal heating, a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43760299 43820314 43700376 43150335 42700273 42010254 41780232 41410187 41390137 41640092 42070093 42970119 43540194 43760299 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this evening and overnight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...01z Update Upper Midwest... Much of the previous forecast remains unchanged with only minor modifications. Several areas of scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the northern Red River Valley and upper Midwest. Scattered supercells ahead of the occluded front over northern MN should continue eastward with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening before slowly weakening as they encounter decreasing buoyancy near Lake Superior. Farther south, complexities surrounding the isolated ongoing convection in southern WI and additional convective initiation of elevated storms near and north of the effective warm front remain substantial. Storms over southern WI appear likely to continue southeast on the fringes of the better ascent and buoyancy with a risk for damaging gusts and hail this evening. Observational data shows increasing low-level warm-air advection and upper-level ascent could support additional storm development this evening over portions of west-central MN with the potential for rapid upscale growth into a bowing MCS. Substantial spatial uncertainty is also evident in late afternoon CAM guidance, but most guidance now does indicate some form of relatively intense MCS forming along the front in the 02-04z time frame. With 5000-6000 J/kg MUCAPE and moderate effective shear in place, a swath of significant damaging winds remains possible over parts of eastern MN, and much of central/southern WI, though with substantial uncertainty. Will maintain level-3 Enhanced wind probabilities as is with minor adjustments to the level-2 Slight over lower MI where storms may persist through the end of the convective period. ...Carolinas... The cold front over the eastern US is slowly moving offshore this evening. Remaining storms have undergone a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity this evening with the cessation of diurnal heating and the weakening of broader-scale forcing for ascent. An isolated damaging gust could occur with the stronger storms centered near the NC/SC border, but the broader severe risk should continue to decrease below MRGL criteria after sunset. ..Lyons.. 06/25/2024 Read more